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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 15, 2021 13:43:24 GMT -6
So is that the back edge on the Missouri/Arkansas border? Us southerners may be about done unless I’m crazy. Yeah the backedge will be moving in after 3-4pm for the southern 1/3rd. Maybe some banding at the end Hopefully the pivot can slow that down a bit. |
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 15, 2021 13:45:19 GMT -6
Aircraft sounding from Lambert about an hour ago. Light snow reported at the time. Which website do you use for those? I've been checking the ACAR site, but I haven't found anything coming in or out of St. Louis recently. You have a couple options: Easiest is wxster.com/acars. Sounding I posted shows up there at hour 1800. I use sharp.weather.ou.edu/soundings/acars/ and then load the file into SharpPy. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 15, 2021 13:45:49 GMT -6
So is that the back edge on the Missouri/Arkansas border? Us southerners may be about done unless I’m crazy. Radar continues to backbuild out past SGF...we've got a long way to go. Far southern sections may get dry slotted later this afternoon or evening but most of the region should have accumulating snow past sunset. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 15, 2021 13:46:35 GMT -6
Yeah the backedge will be moving in after 3-4pm for the southern 1/3rd. Maybe some banding at the end Hopefully the pivot can slow that down a bit. There should be some snow left. The 18Z nam brings the back end through your area about 4-5pm. Through 44/64 in STL about 6. And 8pm for North of 70 in IL |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 15, 2021 13:48:17 GMT -6
Temps around 700mb looks several degrees warmer than model soundings had last night Recent model forecasts and HRRR analysis showing rising motion actually above DGZ. So flake production just hasn't been that great up here yet. That's why I wasn't sold on the 25:1+ ratios...and figured 15/20:1 would cover it. |
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Feb 15, 2021 13:48:51 GMT -6
up to 3.75" now, visibility has been "ok" all day, considering
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 15, 2021 13:50:13 GMT -6
Recent model forecasts and HRRR analysis showing rising motion actually above DGZ. So flake production just hasn't been that great up here yet. That's why I wasn't sold on the 25:1+ ratios...and figured 15/20:1 would cover it. Probably wise estimate. Thought for sure 20:1 or even 25:1 was solid bet but flakes have just been little sand grains practically all day here. Though I am getting a lot of 'em. |
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Post by TK on Feb 15, 2021 13:51:31 GMT -6
So is that the back edge on the Missouri/Arkansas border? Us southerners may be about done unless I’m crazy. Radar continues to backbuild out past SGF...we've got a long way to go. Far southern sections may get dry slotted later this afternoon or evening but most of the region should have accumulating snow past sunset. How are you seeing that BRTN? I see radar weakening at MO/AK border? Tail end? |
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 15, 2021 13:52:23 GMT -6
Recent model forecasts and HRRR analysis showing rising motion actually above DGZ. So flake production just hasn't been that great up here yet. That's why I wasn't sold on the 25:1+ ratios...and figured 15/20:1 would cover it. If we can get an hour or two of a decent band after sun goes down it will pile up faster than we’ve ever seen. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 15, 2021 13:53:15 GMT -6
up to 3.75" now, visibility has been "ok" all day, considering That seems crazy low. Although it looks like we are going to end up about 6-8" for The SE 1/2 and 3-5" for NW half. Snow growth is just nothing. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 15, 2021 13:54:07 GMT -6
Radar continues to backbuild out past SGF...we've got a long way to go. Far southern sections may get dry slotted later this afternoon or evening but most of the region should have accumulating snow past sunset. How are you seeing that BRTN? I see radar weakening at MO/AK border? Tail end? Base radar out of SGF shows expanding echo upstream. The pivot point looks to focus along I-70 later this afternoon/evening. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 15, 2021 13:57:49 GMT -6
Looks like the St.Louis radar isn’t picking up the southern edge of the snow.... if you go to Paducah radar the boot heal has moderate snow where the STL radar shows nothing
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 15, 2021 13:59:16 GMT -6
Was the winter storm warning extended past 6p? Thought I saw midnight!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 15, 2021 13:59:51 GMT -6
Looks like the St.Louis radar isn’t picking up the southern edge of the snow.... if you go to Paducah radar the boot heal has moderate snow where the STL radar shows nothing Yep...overshooting most of the lift. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 15, 2021 14:00:48 GMT -6
18z name hires at 5pm  Regular name at 6pm:  upload imagesGreat day. Just not history making depth |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Feb 15, 2021 14:01:26 GMT -6
Was the winter storm warning extended past 6p? Thought I saw midnight! It expires 12am tomorrow over here. |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 15, 2021 14:02:59 GMT -6
Earth city area won’t even be remotely close to the predicted 6-9” most likely maybe 4-5” the baby flakes just sent doing it. You can still see all the grass tips .
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Feb 15, 2021 14:04:07 GMT -6
up to 3.75" now, visibility has been "ok" all day, considering That seems crazy low. Although it looks like we are going to end up about 6-8" for The SE 1/2 and 3-5" for NW half. Snow growth is just nothing. Could be, seems like I'm always a little on the low side compared to Waterloo/Columbia. I always wondered if it was because I'm closer to the river, that might have something to do with it, but I don't know what. |
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Post by pbc12871 on Feb 15, 2021 14:05:21 GMT -6
As far as I can tell, I have about three inches so far. The wind is making measuring difficult. Six inches out of this is going to be tough.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 15, 2021 14:05:34 GMT -6
We have around 6 inches of new snow ..... still pouring snow
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Post by Steven Penrod- HLEW on Feb 15, 2021 14:08:14 GMT -6
Just a nuisance so far. Maybe 3 inches. Biggest flake was a dime.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 15, 2021 14:09:07 GMT -6
Ya I think if snow growth would of been better. This would of been a lot worse! Still bad, but it would of been way worse.
Blowing snow is the bigger problem with these powder type events. Rd crews clean off the rds only to have it blow back on!!!
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Post by weatherj on Feb 15, 2021 14:09:10 GMT -6
We have around 6 inches of new snow ..... still pouring snow Same here. It looks like a death band trying to get going directly to our S and heading straight N. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 15, 2021 14:09:35 GMT -6
We have around 6 inches of new snow ..... still pouring snow So do we. Kids were playing in the field out back about 2.5-3 hours ago. There foot prints are almost gone. Everyone is going to see at least 5". Yeah we are not reaching 8-12" with these baby flakes. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 15, 2021 14:10:39 GMT -6
As far as I can tell, I have about three inches so far. The wind is making measuring difficult. Six inches out of this is going to be tough. I agree about the 6 inches. Wish it would of been more. Still got this afternoon and early evening. But it's going to take a huge thump for that to happen. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 15, 2021 14:12:40 GMT -6
All reasons why I stayed tight with 4/5 to 8. Glenn tightened my 4 to 8 down to 5 to 8... so I just stayed there... 6 is definitely doable... but the wind will contaminate this all making it very tough to measure.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 15, 2021 14:12:45 GMT -6
We have around 6 inches of new snow ..... still pouring snow So do we. Kids were playing in the field out back about 2.5-3 hours ago. There foot prints are almost gone. Everyone is going to see at least 5". Yeah we are not reaching 8-12" with these baby flakes. We only need 2 more to verify the 8-12......... I think that’s doable |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 15, 2021 14:13:48 GMT -6
I haven't even checked the models on the next system (Wed-Thurs)today. I'd say it will be south of this one. But we shall see...
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 15, 2021 14:14:09 GMT -6
4.5” of new snow and a snow depth of 6” in Arnold
It’s brutal out there. Just got done with round 2 of shoveling and when the wind picks up the blowing snow goes crazy
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Post by toddatfarmington on Feb 15, 2021 14:16:43 GMT -6
I am going with current measurement of 6.5 East KFAM at home. and I believe that to be a conservative report
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