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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 5, 2021 12:55:56 GMT -6
Lol
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 5, 2021 12:59:33 GMT -6
The lol is for dschreib's post not jmg's. 🙂
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Post by dschreib on Mar 5, 2021 13:57:25 GMT -6
Details are still emerging from the winter storm induced Texas power crisis and it's looking like it could be the costliest weather related disaster in US history. I've seen upper bound estimates that factor in intangibles beyond just property damage at nearly $300 billion (though property damage and direct expenditures alone might make it the costliest). Some new information that is coming out that is frustrating beyond belief is that ERCOT capped wholesale price of power at the max allowed ($9000 mw/h) when output was low but for some inexplicable reason left it capped for nearly 2 days after most generation was back online during a period when wholesale market costs would have implied *significantly* lower prices. It's estimated that ERCOT's error resulted in $16 billion in overcharging which, as I understand, is more than the entire wholesale market costs of power for the entire 2020 year...just in 2 days...just the overcharging error. When asked to roll back the overcharges the answer was basically...no...it's too complicated now. It's estimated that 10% of the overcharging will eventually get passed on to retail and residential consumers (unless the state intervenes). The other 90% apparently absorbed by the power distributors, some of whom are going bankrupt now. Were there any winners? From what I'm reading, the power generators who were able to operate and receive fuel supply with disproportionally less cost during the crunch made out like bandits. I can only imagine this has ties to the deregulation brought about by ENRON. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Mar 5, 2021 14:27:38 GMT -6
The CEO of ERCOT was fired on Wednesday in the "closing the barn door" department.
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Post by bdgwx on Mar 5, 2021 15:24:08 GMT -6
The CEO of ERCOT was fired on Wednesday in the "closing the barn door" department. And the 5 board members who don't live in ERCOT's jurisdiction resigned several days ago. One of them doesn't even live in the United States. Like...seriously? |
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Post by bdgwx on Mar 5, 2021 15:25:07 GMT -6
Anyway...what an absolute unmitigated debacle. Who would have ever thought that a winter storm could turn out to be the costliest weather related disaster in US history.
We are also being told that ERCOT's grid was 4 minutes and 37 seconds away from catastrophic collapse that would have taken weeks or even months to recover from. Can you imagine the chaos that would have ensued?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 5, 2021 17:58:01 GMT -6
Anyway...what an absolute unmitigated debacle. Who would have ever thought that a winter storm could turn out to be the costliest weather related disaster in US history. We are also being told that ERCOT's grid was 4 minutes and 37 seconds away from catastrophic collapse that would have taken weeks or even months to recover from. Can you imagine the chaos that would have ensued? Terrifying to think about just how much the windmills would have been blamed |
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 5, 2021 22:38:30 GMT -6
Well that's a rather absurd run of the GFS.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 5, 2021 22:44:30 GMT -6
Well that's a rather absurd run of the GFS. So you aren’t buying into the Mid March ice storm? Starting to get hard to ignore the cold air intrusion in the midrange |
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 5, 2021 22:51:39 GMT -6
Well that's a rather absurd run of the GFS. So you aren’t buying into the Mid March ice storm? Starting to get hard to ignore the cold air intrusion in the midrange Ice storm seems unlikely yeah. It's a bit concerning though that we've been seeing some model runs showing the possiblity of a prolonged training storms situation. Heavy rain and flash flooding may end up being the bigger threat at this rate. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 5, 2021 23:57:43 GMT -6
That’s a moist GFS run
If there’s one thing STL weather can do it’s heavy rain and flooding
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 6, 2021 7:49:55 GMT -6
The subtropical jet definitely looks to become active later next week. Could be some significant rainfall for parts of the region.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 6, 2021 13:25:31 GMT -6
GEFS has a mean of 2.5” QPF by the end of next weekend  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 6, 2021 13:48:49 GMT -6
Finally dries out enought to not hear squishy sounds when walking by next Wednesday only to get a bunch more rain. How obnoxious.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Mar 6, 2021 14:09:25 GMT -6
Ya if it's going to rain, I want some storms too. Hate just plain old rain.
I guess too soon for seed? Might all wash away.
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Post by Jeffmw on Mar 6, 2021 17:49:03 GMT -6
Storms yes severe no.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 6, 2021 18:54:28 GMT -6
Looking at some of the operational models and ensembles it’s getting hard to not be bullish for another period of winter weather somewhere between March 15-Easter.
Certainly, not saying that whole period will be cold or snowy, but I expect some cold intrusions and a decent shot at an accumulating snow in the region.
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Post by landscaper on Mar 6, 2021 22:04:41 GMT -6
I agree with you World Series, definitely signs showing up on models and ensembles. It will likely come dow to timing, track , storm type, all the usually factors. I could definitely see has having another round or two of something wintry. Your in a better spot for sure .
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 6, 2021 22:41:43 GMT -6
Gfs has 3-6 inches of rain late week and weekend, so there's that.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Mar 7, 2021 7:08:29 GMT -6
In other words check your sump pumps are operating properly and make sure your flood insurance is up to date (if you need it).
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 7, 2021 8:15:40 GMT -6
I knew it was going to be a while before my backyard dries up. I just hope I don't have to wait until August.
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 7, 2021 8:48:48 GMT -6
My backyard is now walkable without splishy splashy and squishy. This will be short lived apparently. Ugh
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Mar 7, 2021 9:33:33 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 7, 2021 10:29:16 GMT -6
Both the 12z GFS and GFSv16 are showing 4”+ of rain in the metro through next weekend
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 7, 2021 10:34:40 GMT -6
Mmmm, the GFS does not look good next week. Stalling a low level boundary right in mid-MO vicinity for nearly 48 hours. Gulf is wide open with system funneling high PW airmass right into the boundary.
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 7, 2021 10:36:33 GMT -6
Up to 7 plus inches it looks like on the gfs. Right in the Meramec and Bourbeuse river areas.
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 7, 2021 10:39:27 GMT -6
Good news for now is it's still several days out and the ECMWF has had a different, more tame, look to it.
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Post by mchafin on Mar 7, 2021 10:42:33 GMT -6
When I contemplated going to school for Meteorology, I placed two calls and left messages: One to Channel 4 and the other to Channel 5 (I wasn't hooked on channel 2 at that point.) I knew that Trish Brown attended Creighton, and that was a school I was looking into. She called the house, and I still recall my mom yelling, "Hey...Trish Brown is on the phone." And I was like, "Oh ok..cool." The look on her face along with my sisters was priceless. It was a good conversation, and it was delightful to talk to her about it. (She ended up calling a second time, forgetting that she called the first and I pretended that we hadn't already spoken. It didn't help that I had a huge crush on her.) Then Scott Connell called me back and it was hilarious...I still remember him saying, "It's entirely too much math and science and the pay isn't great, but if you like that, go for it!" I then picked up the curriculum guide from SLU, where I decided to attend, and immediatley delcared my major to be Business Administraiton with majors in International Business and MIS, minor in Spanish. He was right...the math and science would've been a beast...so I picked the 'easy' button. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 7, 2021 11:02:12 GMT -6
I think many of us guys had a crush on Trish Brown.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 7, 2021 11:09:02 GMT -6
A very interesting read...I am not familiar with some of these; I thought for sure Janice Huff did a stint for TWC, but I must've crossed wires. As I tell others, you find a met you trust, and stick with them and you NEVER point out in social media, or directly to a met, that some other met says this or that. Each had their style. Was good to see what they are up to. Another never....using weather apps. Looks like we have some localized flooding to follow over the next week to 10 days. Crazy amounts of rain are possible with the pattern set up and a stalled frontal boundary, which eventually drops south only to lift back north in the longer term...that would set up for a 2 part prolonged rain event. I would not be surprised to see some river and tributary flooding over the next 2 weeks. It could get pretty ugly. Right now, the MO river basin is favored for the heaviest rains, which could be in the magnitude of several inches over several days, and some embedded intense high rainfall rates at times. As for winter weather many mets say they don't turn their back on winter until tax day, but the big snow possibility dwindles rapidly over the next couple weeks. To me, flakes in April, or cold snaps are more of a nuisance that keep us from getting yard work done. I guess we could always repeat April 1996 where we woke to couple inches of snow, but a 1 in 25 year occurrence is hardly anything to follow. |
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