|
|
Post by dschreib on Mar 8, 2021 20:51:31 GMT -6
Wasn't there a member here who was oddly obsessed? I knew a few old timers would get the reference. Thanks for not disappointing That's two of them in the last week. Go back and read pg 69... |
|
|
|
Post by tedrick65 on Mar 8, 2021 23:11:36 GMT -6
I knew a few old timers would get the reference. Thanks for not disappointing That's two of them in the last week. Go back and read pg 69... Any posts from him have been pretty well scrubbed. You can only find references to him in a couple places. |
|
|
|
Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 9, 2021 7:31:12 GMT -6
I knew a few old timers would get the reference. Thanks for not disappointing That's two of them in the last week. Go back and read pg 69... I missed that one. |
|
|
|
Post by pbc12871 on Mar 9, 2021 7:45:58 GMT -6
Ha ha! Katfan, MoConfed, (I think that was it), CBL..those were the days!
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 9, 2021 10:36:16 GMT -6
GFS shifting the axis of heavy rainfall across the S counties with the last couple runs but have to wonder if it's too aggressive with the frontal passage with a 588dm ridge across the Gulf.
It also gives a nod to wet snow potential next week with both upper lows passing overhead. Definitely a cooler pattern setting up second half of the month.
|
|
|
|
Post by mchafin on Mar 9, 2021 12:11:25 GMT -6
Ha ha! Katfan, MoConfed, (I think that was it), CBL..those were the days! I do not miss the every-once-in-a-while history lesson on Missouri being a border state. |
|
|
|
Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 9, 2021 12:36:57 GMT -6
Eastern WY and the NB panhandle are going to get 20 plus inches of snow out of this system.
|
|
|
|
Post by Jeffmw on Mar 9, 2021 17:52:54 GMT -6
So has the severe threat for the area just turned into a heavy rain event?
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Mar 9, 2021 18:18:44 GMT -6
No one ever said there was a severe threat. It was always heavy rain.
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 9, 2021 19:42:07 GMT -6
A shame that it's not colder. Because then we'd have a cold rain event.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 9, 2021 20:28:51 GMT -6
Some models put us near or into the warm sector on Sunday/Monday which could bring a threat for strong storms...but overall, the bigger issue will be excessive rainfall for parts of the area. Models are still up in the air where exactly the heaviest rainfall sets up though.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 9, 2021 21:03:44 GMT -6
Some models put us near or into the warm sector on Sunday/Monday which could bring a threat for strong storms...but overall, the bigger issue will be excessive rainfall for parts of the area. Models are still up in the air where exactly the heaviest rainfall sets up though. Approximately 20% of the 18z euro ensembles actually show accumulating snow for the metro... |
|
|
|
Post by yypc on Mar 9, 2021 22:05:54 GMT -6
I’ll take the euro. Less than 2” of rain here while it hammers SW MO.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Mar 9, 2021 22:14:25 GMT -6
To our Denver members...I'm rooting for you. Assuming you want this...  Ok so this verbatim is very unlikely, but even the toned down EPS/GEFS is a big, potentially historic, storm for Denver. |
|
|
|
Post by Tilawn on Mar 10, 2021 5:49:47 GMT -6
No one ever said there was a severe threat. It was always heavy rain. I assume he is referring to the mention of possible severe weather last week at some point in regards to the system we are about to have interaction with. |
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 10, 2021 5:50:37 GMT -6
disco out of denver suggests slr of 8 or 9 to 1....therefore the messaging of 1 to 3 feet of snow still on track. talk abt concrete snow. thats going to leave a mark.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 10, 2021 6:14:24 GMT -6
That will be a destructive snowstorm if even half of those totals verify with heavy, pasty snow bringing down powerlines, roofs, trees, etc.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Mar 10, 2021 6:41:00 GMT -6
Nws has 3-6 inches of rain in the Meramec and Bourbeuse river areas.
|
|
|
|
Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Mar 10, 2021 9:14:01 GMT -6
Nws has 3-6 inches of rain in the Meramec and Bourbeuse river areas. That sucks. Guess I needs to make a trip to the river house and move everything up just in case. Luckily we don’t live there anymore lol |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 10, 2021 9:29:38 GMT -6
Here’s the WPC rainfall forecast through Monday morning  |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 10, 2021 9:48:57 GMT -6
Kind of an interesting sounding on the NAM tomorrow morning. Although 0-3km lapse rates are poor and even getting convection looks like a question mark.  |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 10, 2021 10:11:34 GMT -6
Byrd mentioned an isolated chance for severe storms tomorrow...maybe a couple elevated hailers.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Mar 10, 2021 10:35:02 GMT -6
GFS has been nudging heaviest rainfall axis a bit further north last couple of runs. There will be some competing influences on the quasi-stationary boundary with waves that develop along the boundary and SE ridging pushing it north then rain/outflow pushing it south. Seems like southward push exerts more influence in these cases and GEFS means have been just a bit south of op runs too...more like GFSv16. However, if focus ends up further north like op GFS and we get 4-6" of rain in the Meramec basin that's going to be problematic.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Mar 10, 2021 10:50:30 GMT -6
GFS also indicating possibility of a 500-1000 j/kg of instability with plenty of shear midday tomorrow in the I-44 corridor. Extension of marginal severe risk further northeast may be needed eventually.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 10, 2021 11:13:59 GMT -6
Models are definitely trending further north with the boundary...wouldn't be surprised to see the heavy rainfall axis end up close to I-70 or at least 44/64.
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 10, 2021 11:42:35 GMT -6
yep, i think a broad brush idea of 3 to 5 inches for 70 corridor and points south is a good idea to keep in mind for the next 5 days.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 10, 2021 11:44:09 GMT -6
Models are definitely trending further north with the boundary...wouldn't be surprised to see the heavy rainfall axis end up close to I-70 or at least 44/64. Meramec basin might end up taking the brunt of the rainfall |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 10, 2021 11:51:44 GMT -6
Marginal risk tomorrow along and south of 44  |
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Mar 10, 2021 16:14:17 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Mar 10, 2021 16:41:38 GMT -6
|
|
