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Post by showtime - Marissa on Mar 11, 2021 16:46:40 GMT -6
1.27 inches of rain already .... standing water everywhere
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Post by amstilost on Mar 11, 2021 16:49:43 GMT -6
I missed putting the rain gauge out for this mornings rain. I guesstimate .5" before the gauge was stationed. I have .75" in gauge at 4:45pm. Total of 1.25" and that looks in line with radar precip estimates. This new NWS layout does not seem very good to me. Totally subjective I am sure. Could be my "security in the familiar" creeping in.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Mar 11, 2021 17:21:15 GMT -6
The new NWS radar layout is awful
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Mar 11, 2021 17:24:53 GMT -6
Um...ok...  That's from 55kt wind at 700mb plowing into the range head on. GFS is cranking out like 5-6 feet or something of snow for Boulder CO...lol. That's like 5-6" an hour rates with solid moisture |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 11, 2021 18:46:12 GMT -6
Monday afternoon is worth keeping an eye on. As the big bowling ball of upper level energy slowly ejects the Euro and GFS are showing a decent severe setup. Steep lapse rates combined with modest dew points, high bulk shear and a turning of low level winds could kick off some supercells  I’ll take the 6 inches of snow the 18z gfs has for next Thursday instead |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 11, 2021 20:30:39 GMT -6
I think it might snow in Boulder  |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Mar 11, 2021 21:57:08 GMT -6
1.89” at KFAM as of 21:00 and still raining
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Mar 12, 2021 7:54:58 GMT -6
I mean it’s rained but not as much as I thought we would have at this point. Not complaining though.
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Post by mchafin on Mar 12, 2021 7:55:09 GMT -6
Is the serious threat of rain / flooding south of the metro now? Meaning -- I knew there was always more of a threat south, but it seems the metro may be spared from a weekend washout.
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Post by mosue56 on Mar 12, 2021 8:00:36 GMT -6
Chris said it’ll kick in again later this pm and tonight! More coming from Kansas! Did you all see his outdoor weather deck being built with fireplace? So cool! Right outside fox 2 studio!
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Post by toddatfarmington on Mar 12, 2021 8:01:18 GMT -6
2.48" KFAM as of 0600
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Mar 12, 2021 8:11:27 GMT -6
When it's rainfall not too many people upset when the totals come up short of the prediction or the focus goes further south than expected.
When it's snowfall many people in this group get upset when the totals come up short of the prediction or the focus goes further south than expected.
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Post by mchafin on Mar 12, 2021 8:54:21 GMT -6
I was hoping for some more outside time this weekend. Last weekend was great.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 12, 2021 9:14:50 GMT -6
Huh... that red dot looks like it was close to where I live. Hope it wasnt my house! Note... Im already tired of rain, and there is a lot more on the way! i can say from personal experience of watching my son recover from being struck by lightning when he was 12 on a boy scout outing in Taum Sauk, lightning is not something i want to mess with. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 12, 2021 9:34:47 GMT -6
Some TX panhandle magic possible today and tomorrow  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 12, 2021 10:01:17 GMT -6
Looks like the surface boundary made it pretty far south last night...that may keep the heavier rainfall south of the area this weekend until it lifts north as a warm front on Sunday ahead of the upper low.
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Mar 12, 2021 10:24:18 GMT -6
.50 according to the Davis on the roof in North St. Pete. I'm ready for more.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 12, 2021 11:41:25 GMT -6
10% hatched tornado risk for the TX panhandle tomorrow now. Discussion mentions an upgrade to moderate risk is possible.
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 12, 2021 13:10:24 GMT -6
it's about to get pretty wet. Took a 20 year old dog pen down this morning, just finished, just in time it looks like.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Mar 12, 2021 15:18:03 GMT -6
Meremac and big rivers are already poppin.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 12, 2021 16:49:07 GMT -6
Dry easterly flow has been eating up the rain here.
If this was snow I’d be pretty upset
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 12, 2021 18:06:42 GMT -6
Hardly a drop so far up this way...dry air definitely winning the battle. Not complaining!
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Post by weatherman222 on Mar 12, 2021 18:19:04 GMT -6
Saw a trained spotter report of some trees down and quarter size hail near Fredericktown...that storm got awful frisky there for a bit. Looked like there was a couple areas of rotation with those storms...although it was probably mid-level/mesocyclone. I was the spotter that reported the damage. I'm fairly certain a weak tornado tracked through the southern portions of Fredericktown. I watched a roof get ripped off a garage and there are numerous large trees down in a relatively isolated area. This morning I received video of debris that looks to rotating. I wish I had archived velocity radar data. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 12, 2021 18:26:18 GMT -6
Looked like there was a couple areas of rotation with those storms...although it was probably mid-level/mesocyclone. I was the spotter that reported the damage. I'm fairly certain a weak tornado tracked through the southern portions of Fredericktown. I watched a roof get ripped off a garage and there are numerous large trees down in a relatively isolated area. This morning I received video of debris that looks to rotating. I wish I had archived velocity radar data. A weak tornado wouldn't surprise me...the couplet looked decently strong. |
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Post by weatherman222 on Mar 12, 2021 18:51:26 GMT -6
I was the spotter that reported the damage. I'm fairly certain a weak tornado tracked through the southern portions of Fredericktown. I watched a roof get ripped off a garage and there are numerous large trees down in a relatively isolated area. This morning I received video of debris that looks to rotating. I wish I had archived velocity radar data. A weak tornado wouldn't surprise me...the couplet looked decently strong. I wish I would have been paying more attention to the radar. I was spotting from a great vantage point in town but was looking north instead of to the WSW. Here is a link to the LSX Facebook page where I posted the photo's and video. Wasn't sure how else to get it to them. If the weather would clear up I would like to fly the drone over the path and see what I can see from that vantage point. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 12, 2021 20:10:19 GMT -6
That is a tornado. It is weak... but definitely a column of lifting and twisting air. Is that video you shot?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 12, 2021 20:26:52 GMT -6
Today is also the anniversary of the biggest tornado outbreak in MO history. March 12, 2006 saw 38 tornadoes. It was a multi-day event that I will never forget.
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 12, 2021 21:02:31 GMT -6
Also the day of the longest track supercell on record with part of it's almost 800 mile 17.5 hour journey through MO.
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Post by weatherman222 on Mar 12, 2021 21:23:25 GMT -6
That is a tornado. It is weak... but definitely a column of lifting and twisting air. Is that video you shot? I responded on the Facebook post also but that video was taken by a friend but she gave permission if you wanted to share it. Glad to see the guys from the NWS seeing it too. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 12, 2021 23:13:11 GMT -6
GFS Wednesday afternoon  |
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