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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Mar 13, 2021 2:20:22 GMT -6
GFS Wednesday afternoon  Oh boy. 😳 |
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 13, 2021 2:34:50 GMT -6
Southern mo getting pounded tonight. Been dry here for hours.
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Post by amstilost on Mar 13, 2021 11:07:30 GMT -6
I had another .25" in the rain gauge. I believe that puts me at 1.5" so far. I am very glad for that. The large frog in the rain gauge might have bumped up total a little.  I have a picture but it is still so hard for me to post pics here. Denver NWS has a great write up this morning. Even has an element of Chris' language in there.....And no, it is not.... "I am concerned about the DAM/WAM....."  It's a good read. |
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Post by mosue56 on Mar 13, 2021 11:19:38 GMT -6
Dropped the flood watch for SE MO?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 13, 2021 11:47:20 GMT -6
I had another .25" in the rain gauge. I believe that puts me at 1.5" so far. I am very glad for that. The large frog in the rain gauge might have bumped up total a little. I have a picture but it is still so hard for me to post pics here. Denver NWS has a great write up this morning. Even has an element of Chris' language in there.....And no, it is not.... "I am concerned about the DAM/WAM....." It's a good read. Tough forecast for Denver with the SLP center wobbling through the SE section of CO...they could definitely get dry slotted and the strongest upslope/TROWAL forcing is displaced well north across E WY and W NE. Huge bust potential for the GDA for sure. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 13, 2021 12:00:37 GMT -6
Wednesday is looking like a big severe day in Dixie Alley. Further north around here we will be near the triple point. Worth watching  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 13, 2021 13:21:39 GMT -6
Nice tropical/sub-tropical storm on the Euro 12Z around 3/22-3/24 off the Georgia/South Carolina Coast... Would be something if that happened
Nice 'ridge' over us as well. Ah, Summer's just around the corner at least in Euro land.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 13, 2021 16:00:47 GMT -6
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 13, 2021 16:18:26 GMT -6
wish that video had lasted another 30 seconds
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 13, 2021 16:19:27 GMT -6
Very strong couplet/TVS with that supercell just SE of AMA with debris ball...confirmed violent tornado.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 13, 2021 16:19:39 GMT -6
Some absolutely insane stuff going on with that supercell south of Amarillo
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 13, 2021 16:23:54 GMT -6
Some absolutely insane stuff going on with that supercell south of Amarillo G2G shear was ~150kts...latest scan dropped that down a bit but still strong. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 13, 2021 16:43:55 GMT -6
That storm has become outflow dominant but the supercell immediately to it's south is quickly gaining strong rotation. Amazing setup down there for sure...
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Post by unclesam6 on Mar 13, 2021 16:56:29 GMT -6
Potential topographic influence with that monster.
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 13, 2021 16:58:27 GMT -6
Wednesday could be interesting but right now it's looking like cloudy showery weather in the morning may keep things from getting out of control up here in St. Louis. If timing of the system is right (note Euro is a slower occluded less favorable possible outcome) and we get more sun then that would up the stakes...especially if we're in the vicinity of a triple point. For now looking like best chances of strong/severe storm are further south.
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Post by unclesam6 on Mar 14, 2021 4:07:09 GMT -6
Holy effing sh**
So this is what a high plains blizzard looks like.
Easily the worst conditions I've ever seen in my life.
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Post by unclesam6 on Mar 14, 2021 4:08:42 GMT -6
Holy effing sh** So this is what a high plains blizzard looks like. Easily the worst conditions I've ever seen in my life. I dont think I've ever been scared of having to drive out in winter weather before. This is a first. My gf's pops has a big truck to get me to work this AM.. the elantra isn't going to cut it in this... |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 14, 2021 7:41:08 GMT -6
Cheyenne, WY is getting absolutely railed...
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 14, 2021 8:30:17 GMT -6
I am watching tomorrow VERY carefully for a localized tornado threat over eastern Missouri. Hodograph is outstanding near the surface boundary extending east along or just south of the MO river. CAPE is not major, but more than enough to support low topped storms. Shear will most definitely favor rotating storms with very strong low level twisting/shear. As the cold pool moves overhead during peak heating. Obviously hail is a concern as well. Tomorrow may end up suprising some folks IMO.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 14, 2021 8:33:22 GMT -6
Bad time to not have access to the 88d in Denver. Radarscope hasnt been able to load it for more than 24 hours.
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Post by landscaper on Mar 14, 2021 8:36:10 GMT -6
I’ve been following the Denver storm since yesterday and all I keep see and reading is how it has under performed so far . Most locations in and around Denver have 5-8” as of last hour with another 6” predicted through tonight. I guess temps were fairly borderline yesterday and it cut totals down a lot . Definitely not the 18-24”+ storm that was hyped for days. I thought there would be some good video and pics from the storm but so far it looks like an average winter storm.
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 14, 2021 8:40:42 GMT -6
Bad time to not have access to the 88d in Denver. Radarscope hasnt been able to load it for more than 24 hours. Try regular reflectivity. I think it's a level 2 problem only. Level 3 data is still working. |
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 14, 2021 9:14:56 GMT -6
Yeah Cheyenne and areas further north seem to be taking the brunt of the storm. There's a report of 18" of snow with 5' drifts there. Easterly 700mb flow is hitting the range there at 50kts.
Correction: 21" in Cheyenne.
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Post by landscaper on Mar 14, 2021 9:23:37 GMT -6
Yes Cheyenne looks like the spot to be .
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Post by Jeffmw on Mar 14, 2021 9:29:56 GMT -6
I am watching tomorrow VERY carefully for a localized tornado threat over eastern Missouri. Hodograph is outstanding near the surface boundary extending east along or just south of the MO river. CAPE is not major, but more than enough to support low topped storms. Shear will most definitely favor rotating storms with very strong low level twisting/shear. As the cold pool moves overhead during peak heating. Obviously hail is a concern as well. Tomorrow may end up suprising some folks IMO. Is the threat for Tornados south of St. Louis? |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 14, 2021 9:42:42 GMT -6
St. Louis is in Eastern MO...
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Post by Jeffmw on Mar 14, 2021 9:48:00 GMT -6
St. Louis is in Eastern MO... I know that. Eastern Mo is w wide area. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 14, 2021 9:58:32 GMT -6
lol
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Mar 14, 2021 10:26:41 GMT -6
I am watching tomorrow VERY carefully for a localized tornado threat over eastern Missouri. Hodograph is outstanding near the surface boundary extending east along or just south of the MO river. CAPE is not major, but more than enough to support low topped storms. Shear will most definitely favor rotating storms with very strong low level twisting/shear. As the cold pool moves overhead during peak heating. Obviously hail is a concern as well. Tomorrow may end up suprising some folks IMO. Is the threat for Tornados south of St. Louis? Does that help you? I thought he narrowed it down very well. I hope he's wrong but it's Chris so I'm sure he's right! Not a tornado fan at all here in North St. Pete. (neither is the Davis on the roof) |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 14, 2021 11:58:34 GMT -6
Cheyenne, WY is getting absolutely railed... saw some impressive pics on fb from my niece who lives in Laramie. |
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I have a picture but it is still so hard for me to post pics here. 
