|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 24, 2021 0:07:23 GMT -6
around 11pm or so. There is a disorganized dropout in the general area of the couplet... but it isn't definitive.
In a low topped environment you aren't always going to get lightning.
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 24, 2021 5:28:03 GMT -6
Here's a nice treat after the rains Thursday... Highs well into the 80s possible. Models likely underestimating the warmth ahead of the dry front with warm temps aloft and favorable southwest winds descending off the Ozark Plateau.
Longer term the GFS has lost the arctic attack in the long ranges and once again shows a titanic 580+ DM summer-like ridge again. If that pans out April could be quite boring and 'hot'.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 24, 2021 7:03:00 GMT -6
Are you talking about Saturday? Gonna be tough to break into the 80s with clouds...I'd say 75 at most...probably closer to U60/L70s if clouds hold tough.
Both the GFS and EC show a considerable cold shot around the 1st, so I don't know what you're seeing there.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 24, 2021 9:56:20 GMT -6
Thursday night is going to be one hell of a storm in the Ohio Valley. So lame that the upper air temps aren’t colder.
This thing would have been a historic blizzard.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 24, 2021 10:10:29 GMT -6
Thursday night is going to be one hell of a storm in the Ohio Valley. So lame that the upper air temps aren’t colder. This thing would have been a historic blizzard. There could be some pretty gusty winds on the backside of that low tomorrow evening |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 24, 2021 11:25:05 GMT -6
Different subject… but today is a big day in Saint Louis weather history.
Warmest day ever in March at 92ﾟ
And 2 of the 3 biggest 24 hours snows in Saint Louis history occurred on this date... The most recent being 2013.
An interesting side note to the record of 92 in 1929… later that Spring on May 2nd we had the latest measured snow in Saint Louis at 4" how wild is that?
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Mar 24, 2021 11:35:29 GMT -6
Forecasted LCL's from the ECMWF on tomorrows severe outbreak? Just a casual 30-35m... or 100ft off the damn ground. Impossible chasing conditions considering the terrain and large pine vegetation there.
SPC once again considering a high risk in the next update.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 24, 2021 11:54:57 GMT -6
Forecasted LCL's from the ECMWF on tomorrows severe outbreak? Just a casual 30-35m... or 100ft off the damn ground. Impossible chasing conditions considering the terrain and large pine vegetation there. SPC once again considering a high risk in the next update. Chasing in the deep south seems like a nightmare. Add in fast storm motions and it's a hard pass for me.
HREF is showing some high-end and long track helicity tracks tomorrow in the risk area. Atleast a couple strong, long track tornadoes seem like a good possibility
|
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Mar 24, 2021 13:38:21 GMT -6
Different subject… but today is a big day in Saint Louis weather history. Warmest day ever in March at 92ﾟ And 2 of the 3 biggest 24 hours snows in Saint Louis history occurred on this date... The most recent being 2013. An interesting side note to the record of 92 in 1929… later that Spring on May 2nd we had the latest measured snow in Saint Louis at 4" how wild is that? That's crazy. What happened in 1929 may never happen in our lifetime. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 24, 2021 19:33:24 GMT -6
Its the HRRR, but the 00z run has some nasty looking storms rotating around the strengthening low overhead tomorrow afternoon and some 50-60 mph gust on the backside of the low
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 24, 2021 20:39:58 GMT -6
Both the NAM and 3k NAM look similar to the HRRR with an elevated line on storms moving through tomorrow afternoon followed by 40-50 mph gust with 50+ mph gust east of the river
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 25, 2021 5:11:35 GMT -6
Its the HRRR, but the 00z run has some nasty looking storms rotating around the strengthening low overhead tomorrow afternoon and some 50-60 mph gust on the backside of the low Swing and miss for the new GFS... |
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 25, 2021 5:27:03 GMT -6
High Risk issued for Northern Alabama/Mississippi and south-central Tennessee. Nearly the same spot as a week ago, maybe a hair northwest.
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 25, 2021 6:02:54 GMT -6
i hope we never see 92 in March but it doesnt seem that far fetched; not as far fetched as 4 inches of snow on may 2. a good example of how ma nature tries to balance things out. 1929 was a bad year. i hope that we dont see anything like that in our lives. btw, tp shortage developing again on the retail side. this time, its related to shipping containers and wood pulp in south america.
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Mar 25, 2021 6:53:36 GMT -6
Jesus.
|
|
|
|
Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 25, 2021 7:16:03 GMT -6
Whoa. That... wow! Been on the phone with my mother in Nashville, the local Mets are pushing very hard for public awareness today and have issued a "code red" for severe weather today.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Mar 25, 2021 7:16:47 GMT -6
Morning soundings are eye-brow raising from Lake Charles to Jackson. At LCH Mid-level lapse rate is 9.1 C/km. Peak lapse rate is in the 700-550mb layer at 9.4 C/km. This will advect downstream into the threat area, though lapse rates are forecasted to wane over time. At JAN the 1km SRH is 360 m2/s2 and that kinematic environment is also expected to exist over much of the threat area....perhaps even a little higher in the MS/AL/TN tri-state area. And look at those deep fully saturated boundary layers.
So the threat of violent tornadoes is definitely worth highlighting in the outlooks.
|
|
|
|
Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 25, 2021 8:15:44 GMT -6
WOW! Check out this retweet by Mr. Cantore!
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 25, 2021 8:21:38 GMT -6
WOW! Check out this retweet by Mr. Cantore! I guess today we will find out if any of these indicies can be TOOOOO strong for tornado development. We can hope... but I doubt it. I simply pray these things track through largely un-populated locations. My thoughts go out to my counterparts in those markets. |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Mar 25, 2021 8:30:30 GMT -6
HRRR brings a pretty stout line of storms through from STL points south. Obviously not as concerning as the situation down south but something to keep an eye on. Lots of clouds and light rain still muddying the waters.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 25, 2021 8:40:22 GMT -6
There is a lot of clearing across Mississippi currently. The last thing we need is more energy in the atmosphere down there
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Mar 25, 2021 8:42:46 GMT -6
There is a lot of clearing across Mississippi currently. The last thing we need is more energy in the atmosphere down there No doubt. This looks and feels worse than last week's situation. |
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Mar 25, 2021 9:11:17 GMT -6
650 m^2/s^2 of 1km SRH...yikes.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Mar 25, 2021 9:12:22 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Mar 25, 2021 9:35:57 GMT -6
Can see the diffluence over the high risk  |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 25, 2021 10:17:47 GMT -6
Band of agitated CU developing from N/central LA to NW MS along the leading edge of height falls/ascent. Should be the start of a nasty outbreak...scary setup down there for sure.
|
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Mar 25, 2021 10:23:39 GMT -6
Agitated now... getting really pissed off later
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 25, 2021 10:32:15 GMT -6
That PDS watch has >95/>95 tornado probabilities.
>95% of two or more torndoes and >95% chance of atleast one EF2+ tornado
Wow
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Mar 25, 2021 11:24:53 GMT -6
That cell near Birmingham looks gnarly. BWER and TDS. Not good. I hope that isn't a foreshadowing of how the day is going to go down there.
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Mar 25, 2021 11:31:31 GMT -6
There was definitely a strong tornado on the ground a bit ago with that cell, no doubt with evident debris ball. Hopefully it mainly went through woods. Looks like it's cycling now.
|
|
