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Post by Jeffmw on Mar 22, 2021 12:19:03 GMT -6
Just curious... do you go on Dave's page to tell everyone what I'm saying? I just spit my coffee out, all over my new monitor, literally! Appreciate the candid humor  Sorry, I’ll delete if you like. |
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Post by mchafin on Mar 22, 2021 12:22:46 GMT -6
I can potentially see tomorrow being a marginal-type severe risk along and primarily north of I-70. But it's just hard to get higher risk severe convection around here with dewpoints in the low/mid 50s Seems to me that tomorrow is the very reason why marginal was added as a category. yes, but what does Dave think? |
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Post by amstilost on Mar 22, 2021 13:54:16 GMT -6
I jumped in here to see if the threat of T-storms was still on for tomorrow after looking at NWS graphic that just said showers Mon. night, Tues. and Tues. night. But then there (NWS) text forecast has a chance of T-storms. Why would they do that???
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Post by amstilost on Mar 22, 2021 14:22:43 GMT -6
On a long range note. do we have a chance of the cold air dropping further south at the end of new GFS16 run. Yikes, hell of an ice storm on that run.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 22, 2021 14:51:02 GMT -6
I just spit my coffee out, all over my new monitor, literally! Appreciate the candid humor Sorry, I’ll delete if you like. Lol... of course not. But Dave has an account in here. If he wants to post he can. He is a good friend and always welcome. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 22, 2021 15:03:46 GMT -6
I highly doubt it gets very cold again. Cooler sure, maybe below freezing a few more times but winter is done I think, of course it was only 2 weeks long. Any ice storm showing up in early April is Lol worthy.
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Post by mchafin on Mar 22, 2021 16:16:58 GMT -6
I highly doubt it gets very cold again. Cooler sure, maybe below freezing a few more times but winter is done I think, of course it was only 2 weeks long. Any ice storm showing up in early April is Lol worthy. I certainly hope not. I turned back on the outside faucet and the irrigation system is being turned on Mid-April. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 22, 2021 20:42:26 GMT -6
NAM has some discrete cells moving through this environment Thursday afternoon in Mississippi. Yeesh  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 23, 2021 5:07:00 GMT -6
light rain. Looks like the dry air is doing it's thing.
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Post by Tilawn on Mar 23, 2021 8:24:01 GMT -6
Doesn’t look like we see much rain today or am I seeing things wrong?
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 23, 2021 8:46:17 GMT -6
I for one find it difficult to believe that a virus so explosively contagious was only isolated on the global scale 6 months after it "originated." With today's intercontinental travel and extremely crowded cities, I'm just not buying it. Not long ago there was a publication that identified antibody markers in blood samples from Italy back in September 2019. That was a published, peer reviewed medical journal. I would bet it was quite prevalent by Oct/Nov. 2019 but that's just me. I really don't want to start anything here that would turn political, just sharing my thoughts. Sadly, my wife's grandma and grandpa both passed away from it within 10 days of each other back in late Jan./early Feb. They were extremely careful and we really don't have a damn clue how it happened. We followed all the rules and they were in nearly total quarantine the entire time. Very sorry to hear about your wife's grandparents. Unfortunately many on the forum probably know someone who has gotten seriously ill or worse at this point. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 23, 2021 9:35:36 GMT -6
Latest run of the hrrr is showing SB CAPE getting up near 1000J/kg this afternoon.
Might just be the hrrr being the hrrr
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 23, 2021 10:28:07 GMT -6
Amazing the difference between the EC and GFS with the system on Thursday. The GFS splits the trof and tracks the SLP well off to the S, while the EC bombs out the low directly overhead.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 23, 2021 10:29:24 GMT -6
Doesn’t look like we see much rain today or am I seeing things wrong? I would expect at least a broken like of showers and storms this afternoon along the pacific front as the cold core passes by to the NW. But definitely not soaking rain. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 23, 2021 10:32:30 GMT -6
i always think to myself, "oh no you didnt just post that..." when someone posts either of these two things on social media: 1) but another channel says something else.... or 2) you changed the forecast, why, did the models change?
btw, that something else may be as mundane as a degree or two difference in forecasted temps. lol
😂
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 23, 2021 12:10:11 GMT -6
Amazing the difference between the EC and GFS with the system on Thursday. The GFS splits the trof and tracks the SLP well off to the S, while the EC bombs out the low directly overhead. Yeah you don't expect that large of a difference at 72hrs with those 0z runs. 12z runs seem to have come in more similar though... |
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Post by Steven Penrod- HLEW on Mar 23, 2021 12:11:59 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 23, 2021 12:13:16 GMT -6
Euro still going bombs away with the low around here Thursday. Overdone I'm sure, but the Ukmet is similar   |
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 23, 2021 12:16:31 GMT -6
Was doing some area averaged soundings off the ECM/UKM/GFS for pretty much the entire states of Mississippi and Alabama. They are pretty sick on Thursday.
Last week's outbreak sequence from Texas to the Carolinas featured a lot high end outlooks and tornado counts but so far not a single EF3+ and no fatalities (that I'm aware of). Will the South's lucky streak keep going? If you throw enough darts...
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Post by unclesam6 on Mar 23, 2021 16:48:38 GMT -6
Was doing some area averaged soundings off the ECM/UKM/GFS for pretty much the entire states of Mississippi and Alabama. They are pretty sick on Thursday. Last week's outbreak sequence from Texas to the Carolinas featured a lot high end outlooks and tornado counts but so far not a single EF3+ and no fatalities (that I'm aware of). Will the South's lucky streak keep going? If you throw enough darts... One met on twitter pointed out how the environment in both cases have shown very little capping-- leading to too much activity in the convective field for anything to become super established... but as we saw with that stuff last week, if something can develop on its own, it has no problem spinning. Will be interesting to watch this unfold once again. |
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modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 835
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Post by modracer on Mar 23, 2021 17:28:10 GMT -6
I hope not, we just got back from 10 days in Gulf Shores Alabama/, and I really don’t want to winterize the motorhome again, and the pool boys come out and open the pool the end of April, but the pool heater should take care of that. 😎 And, I still disconnect the home hoses after using this time of year. I highly doubt it gets very cold again. Cooler sure, maybe below freezing a few more times but winter is done I think, of course it was only 2 weeks long. Any ice storm showing up in early April is Lol worthy. |
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Post by NewTownWeather on Mar 23, 2021 17:46:43 GMT -6
 Looks like that cell by bowling green might be trying to spin |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 23, 2021 18:10:10 GMT -6
That cell is now tornado warned
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 23, 2021 18:16:54 GMT -6
Nice couplet at the moment  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 23, 2021 18:21:14 GMT -6
Pretty strong rotation on that cell by Eolia, MO
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snowcat
Junior Forecaster
Bowling Green, MO
Posts: 280 
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Post by snowcat on Mar 23, 2021 18:35:08 GMT -6
Tornado sirens were going off here in Bowling Green a little bit ago, but all is calm now. Just starting to lightly rain now.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 23, 2021 20:12:53 GMT -6
I hope not, we just got back from 10 days in Gulf Shores Alabama/, and I really don’t want to winterize the motorhome again, and the pool boys come out and open the pool the end of April, but the pool heater should take care of that. 😎 And, I still disconnect the home hoses after using this time of year. I highly doubt it gets very cold again. Cooler sure, maybe below freezing a few more times but winter is done I think, of course it was only 2 weeks long. Any ice storm showing up in early April is Lol worthy. We're service techs, not pool boys. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Mar 23, 2021 21:06:29 GMT -6
Coming down good here in my neighborhood in Ferguson.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 23, 2021 22:15:11 GMT -6
There may have been a brief tornado south of Waterloo. There was a brief couplet and a suspicious CC drop at the same time
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Post by RyanD on Mar 23, 2021 23:33:56 GMT -6
There may have been a brief tornado south of Waterloo. There was a brief couplet and a suspicious CC drop at the same time When? There wasn't even any thunder with the line of rain. |
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