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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 9, 2021 13:07:24 GMT -6
Given similarities amongst multiple meso models for a cold pool driven MCS (possible derecho) through MS you could almost make the case for SPC to issue a wind driven high risk outlook. I honestly don't know if I have ever seen them issue a high risk for just wind. Seems like they always cap derecho events at Moderate... but I could be wrong. I think they did during last summer's Iowa derecho didn't they? |
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 9, 2021 13:24:38 GMT -6
They've issued high risk's for a couple of derechos. Last year's Iowa derecho only got upgraded to a MDT at the last minute. 6/3/2014 and and 6/12/2013 are the most recent 60% wind outlooks (high risk) issued that I could find. The 8/10/2020 event did included the super rare PDS-SVR watch though.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 9, 2021 13:52:52 GMT -6
Big Hailers south in Arkansas.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Apr 9, 2021 18:37:24 GMT -6
We are at our lake house just south of Marissa and we easily had 40 mph winds
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Post by unclesam6 on Apr 9, 2021 19:36:23 GMT -6
Maybe chat will get fixed... or they switch to something better like Discord or Slack!
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Apr 9, 2021 19:47:40 GMT -6
Had a few sprinkles here from this batch. Pretty much fizzled away when I got here.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 9, 2021 20:52:16 GMT -6
Models pretty much all shaft the metro area now with most showing a tenth inch of QPF through tomorrow night. A few printing out a quarter to half inch, but man if this was a winter storm/snowstorm there would be a lot of bummed out people on here, but since it's April and just rain nobody really cares.
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Post by ajd446 on Apr 9, 2021 20:56:37 GMT -6
Good dont need the eain with the swampy yards fro. Thursdays storms
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 10, 2021 6:52:54 GMT -6
Plenty of rain here...can hear those morels poppin'
Found the first little mess of blacks yesterday. Shaping up to be a decent season.
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Apr 10, 2021 8:39:36 GMT -6
Don't forget to vote for our favorite meteorologist in the St. Louis Magazine "best of" poll! Here is the direct link for you. www.stlmag.com/alist#/gallery?group=371216According to the Davis on the roof in North St. Pete, we have had .95" overnight and this morning. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 10, 2021 8:56:16 GMT -6
preeettttyyyyy, prettttyyy, pretty, pretty wet
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 10, 2021 9:39:11 GMT -6
1.05 so far here in chesterfield.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 10, 2021 9:50:09 GMT -6
Some interesting signatures within that narrow line in Illinois. Small twists of weak circulations in regions of line breaks where you would expect possible weak qlcs tornadoes. imgur.com/a/1v2NG5W |
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Post by Jeffmw on Apr 10, 2021 10:31:42 GMT -6
I don't remember the last time I slept in on a Saturday. Must be this grey wet weather we are having today.
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Post by jmg378s on Apr 10, 2021 10:47:35 GMT -6
Everyone remember this?
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Post by jmg378s on Apr 10, 2021 11:05:07 GMT -6
GFS forecast sounding for this evening near Alton. 50kt winds at 925mb with marginally steep lapse rates in the boundary layer and winds lined up in the same direction. After some mechanical mixing 40+ mph gusts with peak up to 50mph can be expected. Wind advisory up for areas along and north of I-70.  |
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Post by amstilost on Apr 10, 2021 12:15:44 GMT -6
Chris,
What radar is that you are using??? Public, private, pay as you go.
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 10, 2021 12:23:13 GMT -6
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 10, 2021 12:31:47 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 10, 2021 12:35:56 GMT -6
Chris, What radar is that you are using??? Public, private, pay as you go. radarscope pro |
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 10, 2021 13:56:38 GMT -6
I count several explosive pulses on GOES-16 over the last few hours. A couple of those look potent. I have not seen any videos of these or reports of damage yet.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 10, 2021 14:05:32 GMT -6
Really cool looking radar presentation today...but like BWG said would be painful to watch if it was a snowstorm with the deformation stalled out west and the dry slot holding tough over the Metro and east of the river.
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Post by amstilost on Apr 10, 2021 16:25:09 GMT -6
Thanks Chris
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 10, 2021 19:03:08 GMT -6
Really cool looking radar presentation today...but like BWG said would be painful to watch if it was a snowstorm with the deformation stalled out west and the dry slot holding tough over the Metro and east of the river. I'm grateful it's rain! What a huge headache to have tried to pin the R/S/Sleet zones down on a system like this. Although with the 500mb low so far north, snow would not have been a big factor near here. |
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Post by ajd446 on Apr 10, 2021 19:10:01 GMT -6
1.57 so far may break 2 inches. It is freaking muddy out in st.charles County. Dry sloy did not do much out hear we were definately on the line however just few miles east of me it was not raining nearly as much.
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Post by ajd446 on Apr 11, 2021 7:47:29 GMT -6
Some models are flirting with snow the end of the month. I think this ia a May 15th flower planting year.
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Post by maddogchief on Apr 11, 2021 7:50:46 GMT -6
The defo zone has been pounding me up in SPI. Just wish it would go away.
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lunchladyd
Junior Forecaster
On the Troy -Silex, Mo. line
Posts: 399
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Post by lunchladyd on Apr 11, 2021 17:38:20 GMT -6
We ended up with exactly 2 and a half inches according to the rain gauge here in Silex. The cuivre river got over the road for a few hours today. It is now back down. I'm guessing because the ground was so saturated? Have a great week folks!
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Apr 11, 2021 19:58:04 GMT -6
Some models are flirting with snow the end of the month. I think this ia a May 15th flower planting year. models don't go out that far....and the ones that do, you can disregard. Even in the 10 day period from today, the GFS and Euro are vastly different. |
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 12, 2021 8:28:47 GMT -6
Both the GFS and ECMWF have been consistent in showing a super typhoon with a sub 920mb pressure forming in the Western Pacific. The most intense April typhoon I could find was Thelma 1956 at 935mb.
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