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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Apr 19, 2021 6:03:34 GMT -6
Yep had some frost here this morning too.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 19, 2021 6:36:04 GMT -6
Well all the models are pretty well confirming that it's going to snow a little tomorrow evening...crazy! In fact, they've trended a bit more robust to the effect that it may actually snow pretty hard for a couple hours.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 19, 2021 7:03:02 GMT -6
Well all the models are pretty well confirming that it's going to snow a little tomorrow evening...crazy! In fact, they've trended a bit more robust to the effect that it may actually snow pretty hard for a couple hours. A bit perplexed by the NWS pulling snow POPs for tomorrow...my forecast doesn't even mention snow. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 19, 2021 7:13:51 GMT -6
Well all the models are pretty well confirming that it's going to snow a little tomorrow evening...crazy! In fact, they've trended a bit more robust to the effect that it may actually snow pretty hard for a couple hours. A bit perplexed by the NWS pulling snow POPs for tomorrow...my forecast doesn't even mention snow. Strange...mine still does for both STG and Perryville. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 19, 2021 7:50:41 GMT -6
Seems like Elevation will play a key roll in addition to timing as to where it will snow, how long it stays snow, and how much accumulates. Hi-Res Meso models all show little to no accumulations largely slush (Half Melted Rain Drops) in the lower flood plains and river valleys, while the Ozarks and bluff areas get a dusting to 2" of snow with potentially fat wet flakes or 'missiles' as some on here refer to them with most accumulations on north facing grassy areas and slopes that quickly melt. Downtown St. Louis inside the 270/370/255 loop will likely have trouble seeing any real snow, but the metro-east might see up to an inch especially the slightly higher region of Waterloo, Columbia into Millstad, West Belleville, Caseyville, western Fairview Heights, Collinsville, Maryville, and Glen Carbon line, with a dusting for the rest of Madison, Monroe, and St. Clair counties. Into the far southeastern most area of the viewing area it gets interesting again as the sunsets/lowers and temps begin to fall again which could result in a somewhat greater chance for accumulations, again mainly an inch or so, but can't rule out 2 if the band is heavy enough or persists a bit longer. Heck people inside the top of the Arch or highest hi-rises in Downtown St. Louis might see snow or at least sloppy wet flakes, while those at street level get a melting looking rain. My two cents on this but an interesting plausibility. At any rate the lower the ground level, the more melting that can occur as the precip has to travel through more air mass above freezing.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 19, 2021 7:55:00 GMT -6
So what you're saying is that Mount St. Peters should do quite well tomorrow?
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Post by ajd446 on Apr 19, 2021 8:16:55 GMT -6
Can we give mount st.peters a break please. Its getting a bit old. I have reported quite accurately this last winter, and its freaking late aprilbother than a slushy coating no body will see anything that amounts to much. We all will see flakes fly however in my opinion.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 19, 2021 8:18:36 GMT -6
So what you're saying is that Mount St. Peters should do quite well tomorrow? Possibly. As usual don't take it as gospel, but it wouldn't surprise me. Needless to say this isn't going to be a 'big' storm by any stretch, the 'wow' factor is the fact it's so late in the Spring to even see snow let alone the potential of it sticking even if only to grassy surfaces and in the daytime for most nonetheless. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 19, 2021 8:21:43 GMT -6
12Z NAM quite a bit more robust than 06Z especially southeast of town.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 19, 2021 8:54:51 GMT -6
So what you're saying is that Mount St. Peters should do quite well tomorrow? Let's please move on from this. We don't need to go there anymore. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 19, 2021 9:02:59 GMT -6
09z SREF plumes have a mean of 3" at STL. Im sure there not taking into account melting and compacting but that's still pretty remarkable for April 20th
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 19, 2021 9:20:50 GMT -6
The HRRR past 24 is like the NAM past 48. With that said the HRRR has a quick hit of snow tomorrow.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Apr 19, 2021 9:24:34 GMT -6
the hrrrr apparently is pretty robust with thundersnow southeast of town.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 19, 2021 9:25:50 GMT -6
09z SREF plumes have a mean of 3" at STL. Im sure there not taking into account melting and compacting but that's still pretty remarkable for April 20th Gives support to possibly getting the ground covered, anyway. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 19, 2021 9:31:42 GMT -6
I expect about 90 minutes of impressive snow with the main band. That is when any accumulation will take place. Before that it's rain until precip intensity overcomes the near surface warm layer. I would expect the magic # to be around 38 for flakes and 35 for accumulation.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Apr 19, 2021 9:42:16 GMT -6
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 19, 2021 9:47:39 GMT -6
the hrrrr apparently is pretty robust with thundersnow southeast of town. Where/how are you seeing this? |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Apr 19, 2021 10:15:13 GMT -6
the hrrrr apparently is pretty robust with thundersnow southeast of town. Where/how are you seeing this? beau dodson weather. a fb page. keyword is apparently bc i hadnt seen for myself. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Apr 19, 2021 10:37:09 GMT -6
What is the time frame?
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Apr 19, 2021 11:13:49 GMT -6
My grandmother used to always say never trust the weather until tax day ...... she was so smart that she knew that in 2021 tax day would be moved until May 15 lol
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 19, 2021 12:11:12 GMT -6
Still a late afternoon/early evening time frame for whatever snow we do get?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 19, 2021 12:40:53 GMT -6
Still a late afternoon/early evening time frame for whatever snow we do get? Latest models pretty well hone in on the lunch hour or so. May start out as rain until the stronger lift arrives like Chris pointed out. Heavy snow potential around 2-5pm...and I wouldn't be surprised to see some thundersnow reports. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 19, 2021 14:09:30 GMT -6
18Z NAM is another juicy run. Quite a bit whiter than the already amped 12Z.
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 19, 2021 14:37:42 GMT -6
Freeze warning now for tomorrow night. The disco uses the word historical probably a historical number of times lol. Added snow back in forecast for here after taking it out. Winter is here.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 19, 2021 14:45:55 GMT -6
Here's my snowfall map. Note that the devil is in the details, as Chris mentioned, northfacing slopes and other shady spots and on grassy surfaces. Likely to melt once precip rates decline.
*Going with a solid 2" for my house in West Belleville right on the 1-2" to 2-3" boundary.
**Snowfall amounts likely to be much more nebulous and poorly defined than as shown here.
My Write-Up from my Facebook weather group page...
Potentially Historic Late April Snowfall is looking increasingly likely for the MO/IL Bi-State area with accumulations approaching or even exceeding 3" especially north of I-70 with D-2" amounts widespread throughout the area.
For Metro St. Louis 2" with spots of 3" northwest of downtown are possible. Highest totals will be on grassy surfaces and north facing hills and slops. Roads are expected to remain mainly just wet but some brief periods of
slush is possible on bridges and overpasses as temperatures fall during the precipitation, starting out in the low to mid 40s, dropping quickly into the low-mid 30s during the heaviest precipitation rates. While NOT a record
breaking snow by any stretch, the 'wow' factor for how late in the Spring it is will cause some surprises for people not expecting snow this late into the season.
After the precipitation ends, a hard killing late Spring freeze is on tap for the entire area with most places dropping into the mid 20s to low 30s northwest to southeast. Looking between 28-31* for lows Wednesday morning
in metro St. Louis, and again Thursday morning with lows between 30-33*. Highs tomorrow and Wednesday will struggle to get out of the 40s. Moderation comes Thursday night into the weekend as temps rise ahead of a
southeast ridge and an approaching low pressure system which looks to bring rain and storms to the area this weekend.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 19, 2021 15:25:24 GMT -6
Currently sunny and 72* and in less than 24 hours we might have heavy snow. Feel like I’m in Colorado
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Post by ams3389 on Apr 19, 2021 15:30:17 GMT -6
What’s your weather page? Would love to follow. Here's my snowfall map. Note that the devil is in the details, as Chris mentioned, northfacing slopes and other shady spots and on grassy surfaces. Likely to melt once precip rates decline.
*Going with a solid 2" for my house in West Belleville right on the 1-2" to 2-3" boundary.
**Snowfall amounts likely to be much more nebulous and poorly defined than as shown here.
My Write-Up from my Facebook weather group page...
Potentially Historic Late April Snowfall is looking increasingly likely for the MO/IL Bi-State area with accumulations approaching or even exceeding 3" especially north of I-70 with D-2" amounts widespread throughout the area.
For Metro St. Louis 2" with spots of 3" northwest of downtown are possible. Highest totals will be on grassy surfaces and north facing hills and slops. Roads are expected to remain mainly just wet but some brief periods of
slush is possible on bridges and overpasses as temperatures fall during the precipitation, starting out in the low to mid 40s, dropping quickly into the low-mid 30s during the heaviest precipitation rates. While NOT a record
breaking snow by any stretch, the 'wow' factor for how late in the Spring it is will cause some surprises for people not expecting snow this late into the season.
After the precipitation ends, a hard killing late Spring freeze is on tap for the entire area with most places dropping into the mid 20s to low 30s northwest to southeast. Looking between 28-31* for lows Wednesday morning
in metro St. Louis, and again Thursday morning with lows between 30-33*. Highs tomorrow and Wednesday will struggle to get out of the 40s. Moderation comes Thursday night into the weekend as temps rise ahead of a
southeast ridge and an approaching low pressure system which looks to bring rain and storms to the area this weekend.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Apr 19, 2021 15:54:19 GMT -6
Heavy snow?? Say what...lol
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 19, 2021 16:08:08 GMT -6
Probably big ol' cotton balls coming down hard tomorrow. Visibility will likely be low for a bit. Wet roads. Dusting to an inch in spots that'll melt an hour later. What a waste of a day . Lol
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 19, 2021 16:30:58 GMT -6
Probably big ol' cotton balls coming down hard tomorrow. Visibility will likely be low for a bit. Wet roads. Dusting to an inch in spots that'll melt an hour later. What a waste of a day . Lol Can you not just appreciate the anomaly? I find it fascinating from that sense. |
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