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Post by showtime - Marissa on Nov 12, 2021 18:29:29 GMT -6
We are in Waterloo and saw a few flurries
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 12, 2021 21:36:21 GMT -6
NAM almost makes that clipper tomorrow night interesting.
May want to keep an eye on that
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Post by Jeffmw on Nov 13, 2021 12:46:18 GMT -6
Well we got our main Christmas lights up and ready to turn on.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 13, 2021 18:26:48 GMT -6
Looks like tonight's clipper is going to track well to the north with Chicago even being on the edge of the snow. Models showing a pretty strong N trend this season so far. After some rain and maybe a ping of sleet tonight, tomorrow looks pretty windy and chilly.
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Post by WeatherGuyRyan on Nov 14, 2021 5:12:18 GMT -6
A continuous on and off “light flurries” to “light sprinkles” here in Shrewsbury. I assume what’s coming is a quick hit of all liquid.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Nov 14, 2021 7:50:17 GMT -6
Looks like central Indiana is getting a beautiful morning….. moderate snow! So close and yet so far lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 14, 2021 9:46:17 GMT -6
A bit breezy out there this morning
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Post by amstilost on Nov 14, 2021 12:56:39 GMT -6
The wife and I were in the blind yesterday and today for 1/2 day. We decided to leave our vehicle at the top entrance to the property and hike/lug our crap down to the blind. Just over a quarter mile guessing. Yesterday was so quiet. Wife said she seen one squirrel. I did not see a squirrel, any type of bird (usually crows and woodpeckers galore and little bluebirds/wrens? flittin in and out of the cedars, some red tailed hawks, and turkey buzzards....nuttin'). BTW, no deer either.:-( To keep this in the weather spectrum, it was damn cold. Then, this morning we hiked down and we were not in the blind 4 minutes and it started raining. Wife asked if I new it was going to rain. "Really? of course I did" I said.:-) But I did forget about the 30% chance I read about yesterday. Anyway, got very lucky there. It stopped not too long after daylight and I seen squirrels, crows sqwawking to beat the band, bluebirds/wrens flittin' in and out of the cedars, a lone turkey hen walking circles around the clearing where the deer are supposed to be 3 different times, a red tailed hawk, and a turkey buzzard. (actually, just the shadow of the turkey buzzard, but no mistaking the size of the shadow for anything else. Then it got pretty/very windy. Guessing 30mph gusts which is likely why there was still no sign of deer. :-( Anyone have any guess/reason on why one day is so quiet activity wise and the next day so busy?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 14, 2021 13:13:44 GMT -6
Something is brewing for early Thanksgiving week.
12z euro has an east coast bomb, but lots of noise at this stage
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 14, 2021 13:34:49 GMT -6
Pattern suggests east coast storm. We may get a brief hit of something from northern branch and then colder. For a couple days.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 14, 2021 15:11:31 GMT -6
Agree with 99 about the Thanksgiving timeframe. Anything substantial looks like it will be east of here and by the looks of things it could be a rather large storm system. Of course it’s still 10+ days away so things can and will change  |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 14, 2021 16:40:33 GMT -6
Agree with 99 about the Thanksgiving timeframe. Anything substantial looks like it will be east of here and by the looks of things it could be a rather large storm system. Of course it’s still 10+ days away so things can and will change That would certainly mess with holiday travel on the east coast. |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Nov 15, 2021 8:11:45 GMT -6
A bit of drizzle in Catawissa this morning. Deer are moving a little too.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 15, 2021 8:26:13 GMT -6
A bit of drizzle in Catawissa this morning. Deer are moving a little too. The rut is on in these parts, I saw 6 or 7 deer last night driving out towards Otterville. A couple were bucks running hot on a trail, one of which I nearly hit. They are mostly nocturnal with the bright moon. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 15, 2021 12:44:04 GMT -6
Probably going to break a latest 1st snowfall record in Colorado Springs this year... based on the prevailing pattern, we might shatter it.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 15, 2021 12:44:31 GMT -6
Can't wait to see the east coast weenies get dumped on til February.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 15, 2021 14:08:20 GMT -6
Can't wait to see the east coast weenies get dumped on til February. The large scale pattern seems to be setting up nicely for the E 1/2 to 1/3rd of the US this winter favoring NW flow across the central states...so yeah, it could be a rough winter for you guys and we will probably be on the S/W edge of a lot of storms this year. I do think we'll see frequent bouts of arctic air and clippers though. We'll have to see if we can get the split flow to play ball for any southern lows. So far, the pattern has pretty strongly favored storms developing in the N branch. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 15, 2021 19:36:54 GMT -6
There are actually a handful of euro ensembles trying to recreate the “Cleveland Superbomb” next week.
That would be far more interesting to track than another east coast one. Living by the ocean is basically cheating for those types of storm.
Even if it is an east coast bomb, I think the snow will be inland away from Boston and NYC.
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 15, 2021 21:42:34 GMT -6
Some day in the future we'll ba able to track a storm for us
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 16, 2021 7:16:27 GMT -6
I know we are all anxious for our first winter weather, but remember, a cold and wintry November usually does not bode well for the rest of the winter.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 16, 2021 8:53:19 GMT -6
I know we are all anxious for our first winter weather, but remember, a cold and wintry November usually does not bode well for the rest of the winter. Definitely prefer a nice, slow step down into winter vs. an early onset. I'd like to see some rainfall over the next month or so to boost the soil moisture and refill the ponds. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 16, 2021 10:41:11 GMT -6
I know we are all anxious for our first winter weather, but remember, a cold and wintry November usually does not bode well for the rest of the winter. I remember in November of 2019 we had an early snowstorm and shot of arctic air. The rest of that winter sucked. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 16, 2021 10:56:53 GMT -6
Well gfs has a storm next Fri/sat in our wheelhouse. But all the cold air that has been shown is non existent. Very marginal at this range.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 16, 2021 10:57:55 GMT -6
Last night's EURO run was looking pretty juicy towards the end of the run around Thanksgiving but that's way out there and seasonal bias would kick that potential way north. Models are all over the board with the potential EC/OHV storm next week too so that doesn't give any confidence.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 16, 2021 11:08:29 GMT -6
12z GFS has a similar large-scale pattern around that timeframe with a split flow loading energy in the SW and a surface ridge moving in over the top. Might be something there, but it'll probably disappear.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 16, 2021 13:45:23 GMT -6
EURO continuing with somethin diggin around thxgiving.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 16, 2021 15:44:43 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 16, 2021 16:04:11 GMT -6
Not sure about that one. I guess there’s a chance?  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 16, 2021 16:25:13 GMT -6
Obviously, they are putting a lot of faith into ensemble member 37 from the 12z euro. Seems reasonable |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 16, 2021 17:47:02 GMT -6
Bold call, lol
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