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Post by toddatfarmington on Jan 14, 2022 10:53:45 GMT -6
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 14, 2022 10:54:50 GMT -6
UKmet juiced up a little.
Also, brings in negative temps Sunday morning.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 14, 2022 10:59:26 GMT -6
15z RAP basically gives anyone east of river less than an inch.
Radar up north looks really good, however.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2022 11:00:18 GMT -6
Mchafin, the thickness calculations aren't going to work as well as they normally do because of the relatively deep, near-freezing isothermal layer closer to the surface. Even the 1000-850mb partial thickness looks substantially too far NE/warm with stronger lift/heavy precip rates moving in. That freeze line should have no problem crashing SW once that happens...and timing is on our side. This is a classic setup for a quick changeover to heavy snow and like Chris said once that happens it's game over because there's a strong low/mid-level push of colder air thanks to the strongly digging trof.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 14, 2022 11:00:48 GMT -6
Those precipitation depiction charts can act funny at times in borderline setups. That’s why it’s always a good idea to look at the soundings. The follow-up question: when the model is spitting out snow amounts, does it look at sounding or the precip depiction to calculate? Good question. I'd imagine it's looking at the precipitation depiction and calculating from there.
Careful which method you're looking at to calculate snow totals as well. The Kuchera maps which are very popular just look at one parameter, max temp from 500mb to the surface, to calculate the snow ratio. That's it. Doesn't take into account lift in the DGZ or anything. The Cobb method is a much more comprehensive way to calculate snow ratios. You can pull Cobb data from here. The snow depth and positive snow depth change products are also good to look at. They factor in other things like compaction and melting to give you a good idea how much snow will actually be on the ground. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 14, 2022 11:03:15 GMT -6
12Z NBM is 2-3" for the metro. Based on the NBM probabilities and the 12Z runs this morning I wouldn't be surprised if this drops on the 18Z cycle.  |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 14, 2022 11:07:20 GMT -6
15z RAP basically gives anyone east of river less than an inch. Radar up north looks really good, however. Yeah that's freaking scary. However the hrrr has stopped trending West and is much better |
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Post by dschreib on Jan 14, 2022 11:07:57 GMT -6
NAM extraction shows .44" for KSAR (Sparta, IL) and the 'warmest' 950 temps of 0.5C only during the first .12" of precip. I like our chances.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 14, 2022 11:09:57 GMT -6
Critical thinkness is a good way to see the turnover. You can see the yellow- 1000-850 thickness is the concerning one as BRTN says. NAM is snow with all the critical numbers generally south of us... GFS still has 1300 thickness line across northern MO   |
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Post by tedrick65 on Jan 14, 2022 11:10:02 GMT -6
Is there any chance that this causes signficant road problems in the area before 8:00 p.m. or so this evening? Somebody brought up 1/11/19, which was a great snow...but one of the most miserable driving experiences in my life. I know that one started about 1:00 p.m. in the metro and that isn't going to happen, but it made me pretty gunshy about going anywhere with significant snow in the forecast.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 14, 2022 11:11:46 GMT -6
Mchafin, the thickness calculations aren't going to work as well as they normally do because of the relatively deep, near-freezing isothermal layer closer to the surface. Even the 1000-850mb partial thickness looks substantially too far NE/warm with stronger lift/heavy precip rates moving in. That freeze line should have no problem crashing SW once that happens...and timing is on our side. This is a classic setup for a quick changeover to heavy snow and like Chris said once that happens it's game over because there's a strong low/mid-level push of colder air thanks to the strongly digging trof. Thanks. Was curious about sounding vs precip - not “omg! We’re not getting snow!” |
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modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 835
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Post by modracer on Jan 14, 2022 11:12:25 GMT -6
Overcast/Foggy and 33* in Mascoutah
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 14, 2022 11:16:27 GMT -6
This sun needs to go away down here.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2022 11:19:11 GMT -6
It's gonna snow. Time to let the model depictions go and look at what's barreling towards us. Upstream trends look great! Enjoy!
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Post by landscaper on Jan 14, 2022 11:19:23 GMT -6
You should not have any problems at 8pm tonight, should be after that
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Post by ElburnDave on Jan 14, 2022 11:22:28 GMT -6
Same should go for Tilawn. Do NOT prep trucks and call in staff. Wait till it's coming down hard and heavy. Just wing it. To late......no staff to call in other then my 2 sons to shovel sidewalks. Looking forward to cutting my schedule by 2/3rds or quitting snow removal all together for next season. I feel ya' and I don't go as hard as you do. Glad to be sitting this one out. I NEED this 3 -day weekend. The older I get, the less I like snow because it always equates to long hours at work. |
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Post by amstilost on Jan 14, 2022 11:23:23 GMT -6
I am up to 44* with milky sunshine still 7 miles west of De Soto. Farmington temp says 43*. My high was forecast at 42*. Not overperforming terribly.
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bfsmith81
Wishcaster
Edwardsville, IL
Posts: 150 
Snowfall Events: Winter of 2023-2024:
01/05/24-1/06/24: 2.5" (Melted almost immediately)
01/12/24-1/13/24: 0.25"
01/15/24: 0.75"
01/18/24-01/19/24: 0.5"
02/16/24: 4.25"
Winter of 2023-2024 Total So Far: 8.25"
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Post by bfsmith81 on Jan 14, 2022 11:43:40 GMT -6
Thicker clouds have/are overspreading the region. That should limit any further heating for those worried about the quick temperature rise this morning. 37F here in E'ville. Steady as she goes...
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Post by dschreib on Jan 14, 2022 11:48:49 GMT -6
And don't panic when it starts off as rain. I don't believe anyone said that's not going to happen. If we're 6 hours in, it's 37*, and still all rain, we might have an issue.
I'll put the first round of drinks at 99's 10k Party on that not happening.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jan 14, 2022 12:04:47 GMT -6
I am up to 44* with milky sunshine still 7 miles west of De Soto. Farmington temp says 43*. My high was forecast at 42*. Not overperforming terribly. 45 here currently with milky skies. |
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Post by dschreib on Jan 14, 2022 12:06:03 GMT -6
Also, if you tilt your head sideways and look at the current watches/warnings for this storm, it looks kinda like the (GD, according to Chef's dad) Loch Ness Monster. So there's that.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 14, 2022 12:10:31 GMT -6
RAP 16 and 17Z are better though... Nice stinger right into the metro of high QPF.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 14, 2022 12:12:43 GMT -6
I'm at 46.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 14, 2022 12:17:38 GMT -6
Im down to 39 in south st.peters, was 43 40 minutes ago, kind of bouncing around 40
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 14, 2022 12:31:48 GMT -6
RAP 16 and 17Z are better though... Nice stinger right into the metro of high QPF. HRRR continues to look good as well. By 04z it has the column cooled down below freezing in the metro except right at the surface.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 14, 2022 12:52:12 GMT -6
Has the feel of snow here in O’Fallon.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 14, 2022 13:02:25 GMT -6
Temp just spiked to 47. Full sun with very thin clouds in St.Peters at the moment. Definately does not feel like snow on the missouri side
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2022 13:03:31 GMT -6
Has the feel of snow here in O’Fallon. Same in Brighton. Hazy/foggy with a lead sky. Temp has dropped from 37 to 35...definitely some low-level cold advection going on with the ENE wind and slow pressure rise. |
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Jan 14, 2022 13:04:17 GMT -6
Bright sun and 44 in Wentzville.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2022 13:04:38 GMT -6
Temp just spiked to 47. Full sun with very thin clouds in St.Peters at the moment. Definately does not feel like snow on the missouri side Your thermometer/hygrometer sensor is in the wrong spot... |
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