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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2022 21:07:51 GMT -6
Why must the nam put us through this... It's very legit. It looks very legit. Hopefully the other models get on board. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2022 21:14:51 GMT -6
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2022 21:20:03 GMT -6
21Z rap:  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 17, 2022 21:29:29 GMT -6
Those do look nice. No such support from the rgem or icon though.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 17, 2022 21:56:35 GMT -6
00z GFS a little further south than 00z NAM, but so close!
1 inch more of snow, would make us go below zero Thurs morning, Fri morning IMO.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 17, 2022 22:03:20 GMT -6
Hmmmmmm  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 17, 2022 22:13:05 GMT -6
Certainly can’t ignore the trend. I’ve seen these things back up from the south like that within a couple days. Not excited until I see gem and especially euro doing it.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 17, 2022 23:22:28 GMT -6
There looks to be a clipper train week! All on the heels of each other. Could be fun maybe...it all adds up even though it's no big storm.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 17, 2022 23:29:29 GMT -6
There looks to be a clipper train week! All on the heels of each other. Could be fun maybe...it all adds up even though it's no big storm. Clippers = too much stress and drama for the end result which is usually not much of anything around here. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 18, 2022 6:14:49 GMT -6
The key with clippers seems to be getting a good solid snowcover for them to pass over. Otherwise the low-level warming ahead of them usually becomes too strong this far south. That massive void of snow cover across the central/southern plains really needs to fill in.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 18, 2022 7:00:00 GMT -6
Looks like the euro and icon win again with regard to tomorrow. Ugh.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 18, 2022 8:25:21 GMT -6
Looks like the euro and icon win again with regard to tomorrow. Ugh. I'd still keep a close eye on that if you're in the S sections...models still show good Fgen developing for a bit. The biggest limiting factor is the strength of the dry advection in the low-levels behind the front. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 18, 2022 8:49:24 GMT -6
Some of the models actually hint at favorable jet coupling which would really enhance the Fgen response. That system is definitely a watcher for the S half to 1/3rd of the CWA, IMO.
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Post by yypc on Jan 18, 2022 9:13:15 GMT -6
Per the nws we have a 4% chance at 0.1” of snow tomorrow!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 18, 2022 9:14:55 GMT -6
Per the nws we have a 4% chance at 0.1” of snow tomorrow! Lock it in! |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 18, 2022 9:20:24 GMT -6
Well over the weekend I had a 100 % chance and I didn’t get it …..so…….. lol
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 18, 2022 10:27:48 GMT -6
Nice jog north on the 12Z runs for tomorrow's system, but still shy of the metro. It is getting quite close and I think we could still see at least some 'salt shaker' type flake action with a very light dusting along I-44/I-70 with up to 2-3 inches in the far southeastern most counties.
Heck even the Canadian is now onboard.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 18, 2022 10:32:51 GMT -6
12Z GEFS ensembles and the NBM have shifted south of St. Louis a bit with the QPF shield though compared to 6Z... Who knows maybe it will bust north this time.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 18, 2022 10:32:51 GMT -6
This has potential to be a sneaky snow maker for parts of the area...would love to see the vort max track jog just a bit north.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 18, 2022 10:34:11 GMT -6
This has potential to be a sneaky snow maker for parts of the area...would love to see the vort max track jog just a bit north. RAP actually closes the thing off briefly in the Texas Panhandle before opening it back up again which is sorta new. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 18, 2022 10:49:26 GMT -6
After tomorrow, just two more weeks. Which leads us to the illustrious GHD. Circle your calendars!
Then, after that, let's fast forward to spring.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 18, 2022 10:50:59 GMT -6
UKMET still by far the least impressed by this system, but nails the low country of North and South Carolina though, because why not?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 18, 2022 11:00:55 GMT -6
After tomorrow, just two more weeks. Which leads us to the illustrious GHD. Circle your calendars! Then, after that, let's fast forward to spring. I'd put pretty decent odds on one of those clipper working out for us. Starting to look like suppression will limit any storm potential with that cut-off energy around here. But the pattern looks pretty deeply cold overall into late month. |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 18, 2022 11:17:41 GMT -6
After tomorrow, just two more weeks. Which leads us to the illustrious GHD. Circle your calendars! Then, after that, let's fast forward to spring. I'd put pretty decent odds on one of those clipper working out for us. Starting to look like suppression will limit any storm potential with that cut-off energy around here. But the pattern looks pretty deeply cold overall into late month. I don’t see the cold retreating too far away until well into February. I do share Chris’ sentiments on clippers though. Most often more headache than they are worth. That being said, I remember the clipper train that made Friv and the Frivometer famous. Those were epic clippers and has been what has excited this board ever since about clippers. Although, I can’t quite recall if we’ve ever experienced them like that since. GHD is most often a time of interest in these parts. Based on the seasonal shift, it’s pretty much the heart of winter nowadays. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 18, 2022 11:21:19 GMT -6
FWIW the Japanese Model, JMA is onboard especially from the metro and points south and east.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 18, 2022 11:22:18 GMT -6
I don't either. It really seems like the winter pattern has set in and strongly favors deep troffing/cold air drainage into the E half or so of the US. That's mostly a clipper pattern for us, but can support storms when the deep cold relaxes and allows S stream energy to come through out of the SW.
Does anyone have access to EPO forecasts? The ones I used to access aren't supported anymore. Seems like one of the pay sites had teleconnection forecasts.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 18, 2022 11:33:49 GMT -6
I don't either. It really seems like the winter pattern has set in and strongly favors deep troffing/cold air drainage into the E half or so of the US. That's mostly a clipper pattern for us, but can support storms when the deep cold relaxes and allows S stream energy to come through out of the SW. Does anyone have access to EPO forecasts? The ones I used to access aren't supported anymore. Seems like one of the pay sites had teleconnection forecasts.I miss having the access to this as well, before the site was discontinued. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 18, 2022 11:45:16 GMT -6
EPO  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 18, 2022 11:49:19 GMT -6
Clippers suck. That is all.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 18, 2022 11:53:43 GMT -6
Many thanks, 920. A weekly update would go a long way...just saying  The -EPO gives me some hope for a legit S stream snowstorm or two heading into late month and possibly early February/GHD. And it certainly supports the idea of fairly sustained cold and clippers when coupled with the +PNA |
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