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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 18, 2022 19:36:55 GMT -6
it's not going to do more than flurry within at least 75 miles from stl. Most likely, but I don't think we'd be upset about a better than expected system, or a busted forecast that works in our favor. Most likely we'll be high and dry and just get snow aloft but little to none reaching the surface. But there's always that tiny bit of hope. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 18, 2022 19:38:49 GMT -6
it's not going to do more than flurry within at least 75 miles from stl. Ya I think low level dry air is going to eat up any precep around the metro. Only shot I think we have is if an FGEN band can get going but that’s looking unlikely |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 18, 2022 20:02:28 GMT -6
0Z NAM has dived south. Looks like this one is a no go, not that many expect anything less. At least until we see where the precip actually develops/fires we can probably write this one off.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 18, 2022 20:04:46 GMT -6
Despite what the nam says, I do not believe I will receive 3 inches of snow tomorrow...
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 18, 2022 20:07:59 GMT -6
Even the FV3 Hi-Res which was the farthest north outliner has trended noticeably south in it's latest 0Z Run.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 18, 2022 21:17:25 GMT -6
The snow does whatever it takes to stay away …..
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 18, 2022 21:42:50 GMT -6
The snow does whatever it takes to stay away ….. if you listen carefully, you might be able to make out the low pitch hum of the arch doing its thing. But be careful, because once you hear it, you can't get it out of your head. |
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Post by perryville on Jan 18, 2022 22:30:10 GMT -6
Despite what the nam says, I do not believe I will receive 3 inches of snow tomorrow... I believe the NAM is a little juiced..but the mixed precip has a chance to throw a big headache to people getting off school and work tomorrow. This is especially true if we have sleet that rapidly cools off the road. What time are we looking at for precipitation to move in? |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 18, 2022 22:40:08 GMT -6
Despite what the nam says, I do not believe I will receive 3 inches of snow tomorrow... I believe the NAM is a little juiced..but the mixed precip has a chance to throw a big headache to people getting off school and work tomorrow. This is especially true if we have sleet that rapidly cools off the road. What time are we looking at for precipitation to move in? Yep this has the look of a low qpf, moderate impact travel wise situation down here. Mid afternoon I would suspect. Probably just enough crap with the dropping temps to cause some problems. |
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Post by mchafin on Jan 18, 2022 23:00:43 GMT -6
Has anyone checked out the giant ring around the moon tonight? It’s yuuuugge.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 19, 2022 6:59:01 GMT -6
Haven't looked at any models this AM or really even last night but upstream satellite looks like things are coming alive across the Panhandle and even up through central KS with bands of cooling cloud tops...this is going to be interesting to watch into the afternoon. Probably still a miss for the Metro and points N of 70 but the southerns might get a nice surprise.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 19, 2022 7:43:41 GMT -6
lol  |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 19, 2022 8:30:50 GMT -6
lol "Actually, I'm not even mad. That's amazing." |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 19, 2022 8:31:22 GMT -6
Pretty much sums up most long range models except the GEM which has us getting a clipper next week
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 19, 2022 9:47:35 GMT -6
lol Is that a design for a new MTW t-shirt? |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 19, 2022 9:52:01 GMT -6
What a wasted stretch of cold weather, I Hate cold and dry, I would rather have warmer than normal
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 19, 2022 9:53:20 GMT -6
Yeah looks like 14+ days of nothing but sunshine heading our way after today's cloudy weather. It does look like once we hit February, things should get more active again. I for one could take a long stent of sunny dry weather. Or as I like to always say (not that we're actually in one) if a drought or long dry spell is coming might as well get it out of the way now as opposed to saving it for later in Summer when it gets to feeling like 1000 degrees outside and miserable.
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Post by REB on Jan 19, 2022 9:57:11 GMT -6
lol Is that a design for a new MTW t-shirt? I was thinking exactly the same thing. It's time for a new shirt! |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 19, 2022 10:02:07 GMT -6
Polar Vortex is supposedly the strongest in years according to Space Weather.com Leading to lots of Mother of Pearl Clouds in the arctic region. (very high stratospheric clouds that occur when it's exceptionally cold in high altitudes.) with that fact, it's actually quite amazing it's even getting cold at all. We should be torching while the Arctic builds up ice and snow pack. GFS has hinted at a weakening of the PV in the end days of January into early February. That might send something our way mid to late February possibly into 1st half of March, but a torch does look possible early to mid February before it arrives. It takes 10-14 days sometimes longer for what happens in the stratosphere to translate to the troposphere or weather inducing layer of the atmosphere (where we live).
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 19, 2022 10:03:28 GMT -6
Radar has a lot of echoes in NW MO and SW KS thar both appear to be heading this way. Is it reaching the ground?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 19, 2022 10:04:39 GMT -6
Radar has a lot of echoes in NW MO and SW KS thar both appear to be heading this way. Is it reaching the ground? Most likely not. Or just a few small flurries at best. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 19, 2022 10:09:13 GMT -6
Also the MJO is in the 'Circle of Death' or near absent, so perhaps that's why the weather pattern isn't reflecting certain things. Should it remain there the next couple of weeks before jumping back into the colder phases (7, 8 into 1 and early 2) the warm spell could be denied and the next cold push even stronger, but if it emerges into the warmer phases of 4, 5, and 6 then here comes the Heat Miser likely killing the rest of Winter. Oh the stakes the next few weeks that could make or crush the season for good.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 19, 2022 10:18:46 GMT -6
Radar has a lot of echoes in NW MO and SW KS thar both appear to be heading this way. Is it reaching the ground? That's gonna be the battle today...whether the forcing is strong enough and persistent enough to overcome the low-level dry air advection behind the front. Interesting setup. |
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Post by perryville on Jan 19, 2022 10:19:15 GMT -6
Precip is starting to show up south/west of Perry County, MO. Looks like mix precip/rain line is cutting right through the southern part of the CWA. Low precip and moderate impact is looking very possible down this way.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 19, 2022 10:21:20 GMT -6
My daughter just said the kids school is closing early because of impending weather and she said it started sleeting in Park Hills.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jan 19, 2022 10:27:07 GMT -6
Kingston is releasing early due to weather.
Wonder if Richwoods will follow.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jan 19, 2022 10:28:32 GMT -6
Nevermind just got the call.
Richwoods is releasing early as well now.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jan 19, 2022 10:38:20 GMT -6
All sleet at KFAM
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 19, 2022 10:41:26 GMT -6
HRRR and RAP don’t have a very good handle of that precep across the south counties
Both are bone dry where the returns currently are
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jan 19, 2022 10:42:50 GMT -6
Groupel with a little sleet here.
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