|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 13, 2022 11:14:19 GMT -6
If we get strong forcing and dynamic cooling, it could pile up fast , typically once the temp gets to 34-35 with the right forcing you will get a change over a d it will cool the column and lower the air temp down to 32-33 at least
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 13, 2022 11:24:09 GMT -6
Once the steady precip develops, diabatic cooling will overcome the marginal very near surface temps which will drop to near freezing. Without mucch new warm air flowing northward at the surface and cooling from below and potential influence of evaporative cooling on the fringes I see a pretty quick transition to snow once precip starts to ramp up.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2022 11:34:46 GMT -6
If we get strong forcing and dynamic cooling, it could pile up fast , typically once the temp gets to 34-35 with the right forcing you will get a change over a d it will cool the column and lower the air temp down to 32-33 at least Yep...heavy snow always cools the column down to freezing or very close to it. And models are showing potential for heavier snow rates with the Fgen enhancement. The GFS is stronger with the mid-level WAA too area wide hence the better QPF but warmer trop. NAM really relies on that Fgen response. |
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 12:07:25 GMT -6
EURO Looks Great, if we cool the column quick this is a sizeable snow
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jan 13, 2022 12:08:20 GMT -6
Euro looks good. That's a relief.lol
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2022 12:15:36 GMT -6
QPF maximum over 99s house? Must be wrong  |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2022 12:21:08 GMT -6
EC is a bit further W/SW than the GFS/NAM blend...split the middle and the Metro is sitting in a nice spot. 2-4" looks pretty solid...some areas might get closer to 6" if the Fgen band develops and parks itself.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 13, 2022 12:41:34 GMT -6
EC is a bit further W/SW than the GFS/NAM blend...split the middle and the Metro is sitting in a nice spot. 2-4" looks pretty solid...some areas might get closer to 6" if the Fgen band develops and parks itself. By the time anyone gets up to measure it 6" will compact back to 4" there will be some quick settling and some melting from below too. Very "March" like system. |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2022 12:44:03 GMT -6
Basically all the models show a nice comma head developing with this and working right across the region. This is starting to look like a lock for much of the area. There may be some minimums on the far E and S/W fringe due to dry air/weaker forcing(NE) and a warmer profile overall(SW) but the Metro and spots either side along the river valley look to be in a nice spot unless there's some significant last minute shift which is always possible.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2022 12:45:16 GMT -6
EC is a bit further W/SW than the GFS/NAM blend...split the middle and the Metro is sitting in a nice spot. 2-4" looks pretty solid...some areas might get closer to 6" if the Fgen band develops and parks itself. By the time anyone gets up to measure it 6" will compact back to 4" there will be some quick settling and some melting from below too. Very "March" like system. You're probably right unless the pivot works out better for us which looks unlikely so far. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2022 12:45:20 GMT -6
Heres what the Cobb data says based off the 12z NAM Cumulative LSR is the green column and total snow is the blue column  |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2022 12:49:18 GMT -6
Surprising the ratios are so high early on...guessing it's got a nice bullseye of Omega within the DGZ. Does the COBB method calculate that?
Might be time to dust off BUFKIT...been a while
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 13, 2022 12:51:26 GMT -6
I could see a narrow jackpot somewhere with a front end "pivot" of sorts. I believe there will be some very heavy snow in that area that could add up quickly. Who knows at this stage where that ends up being.
At least we aren't trying to squeeze an inch of snow out of a weak system for 20% of the viewing area like last week.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2022 12:54:00 GMT -6
Surprising the ratios are so high early on...guessing it's got a nice bullseye of Omega within the DGZ. Does the COBB method calculate that? Might be time to dust off BUFKIT...been a while Ya I’m guessing ratios start out higher from the fgen forcing and better lift within the DGZ. I believe the Cobb method does take that into account |
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Jan 13, 2022 12:56:56 GMT -6
EC is a bit further W/SW than the GFS/NAM blend...split the middle and the Metro is sitting in a nice spot. 2-4" looks pretty solid...some areas might get closer to 6" if the Fgen band develops and parks itself. By the time anyone gets up to measure it 6" will compact back to 4" there will be some quick settling and some melting from below too. Very "March" like system. Considering this to be our first "decent snow" this winter so far, and the lack of anything meaningful looking in the 10+ day range, if anyone is sleeping through this I will expect Snowman to be collecting Avatar's from the "Non-Diehard's"   |
|
|
|
Post by weatherj on Jan 13, 2022 12:57:22 GMT -6
I'll be satisfied with even 2 inches over here. I know I'm likely to be fighting dry air this far east, but more than likely would stay all snow.
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 12:59:50 GMT -6
Ill be up
|
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 13, 2022 13:01:53 GMT -6
Surprising the ratios are so high early on...guessing it's got a nice bullseye of Omega within the DGZ. Does the COBB method calculate that? Might be time to dust off BUFKIT...been a while Ya I’m guessing ratios start out higher from the fgen forcing and better lift within the DGZ. I believe the Cobb method does take that into account Yeah you are correct, the Cobb method does take into account the amount of omega (upward vertical lift) present in the DGZ. I remember from my MET classes. |
|
gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
|
Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 13, 2022 13:02:31 GMT -6
QPF maximum over 99s house? Must be wrong Fake news. |
|
|
|
Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jan 13, 2022 13:05:05 GMT -6
Ya Friday night will probably be a late night staying up for sure. At least I can nap (if children allow it) Saturday lol.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tilawn on Jan 13, 2022 13:13:32 GMT -6
Guess what.......I’ll definitely be UP during this one. I’m not as excited as I use to be about plowing snow anymore but at least it’s the weekend, that allows me to push off the industrial lots for a little while this time.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2022 13:21:41 GMT -6
|
|
Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320
|
Post by Jeke on Jan 13, 2022 13:24:16 GMT -6
I assume it's safe to say a snow blower will be useless with this storm?
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2022 13:27:51 GMT -6
I assume it's safe to say a snow blower will be useless with this storm? Probably, unless it's a two stage. |
|
mmkjmg
Weather Weenie
Posts: 21
|
Post by mmkjmg on Jan 13, 2022 13:41:34 GMT -6
I'm excited! Looking to travel from Jefferson City to Fort Madison Saturday morning.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tilawn on Jan 13, 2022 13:47:36 GMT -6
I'm excited! Looking to travel from Jefferson City to Fort Madison Saturday morning. Still useless IMO LOL |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2022 13:49:02 GMT -6
18z HRRR really picking up on that fgen band across the area It would be puking some big flakes with this sounding  |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2022 13:50:59 GMT -6
Oh yeah, that's a thing of beauty. That isothermal layer with light wind through the lower column is a classic hamster signal.
|
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 13, 2022 13:52:17 GMT -6
I'm excited! Looking to travel from Jefferson City to Fort Madison Saturday morning. Still useless IMO LOL Beats throwing out your back.. |
|
|
|
Post by Tilawn on Jan 13, 2022 14:03:45 GMT -6
Beats throwing out your back.. Trust me I would use mine for work if I really thought it would work. Sidewalks may be beneficial but wider driveways probably not so much. |
|
