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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 28, 2022 9:26:59 GMT -6
enjoy that LES WSC
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Post by landscaper on Jan 28, 2022 9:30:21 GMT -6
Nice snow shower in Earth city , big flashes with a dusting on everything, to bad it’s almost over
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 28, 2022 9:37:02 GMT -6
12z Icon is noticeably further north than 00z with wave #1, but still has a hit of ice.
Wave #2 has strong potential.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 28, 2022 9:45:05 GMT -6
Looks like ICON is quite the ICE Storm at first glance.
Wave 2 looks good for snow.
GFS and Icon both show rain to major ice to warning level snow.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 28, 2022 9:54:13 GMT -6
Just a little south of the #7 GEFS run. I certainly like this possibility. Pretty cool how the lead 500mb closed low gets squashed into the GOM. I think this is a visual of what BRTN was saying a couple of days ago about the ridge was not going to get pumped up as much as the models were showing earlier. Please correct me if I'm off on that. You feel/hear that explosion? Walked outside and the sky to my NW is glowing orange and red with popping. Just seen this, was going through 500mb charts on all the 6z and 12z runs.  I will guess something at Timber Ridge. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 28, 2022 10:05:39 GMT -6
The transfer and phasing of that pocket of energy over the Pacific as it is shown by ICON and GFS start diverging by hour 48. It looks like this is the primary factor effecting the evolution of the northern stream as it enters the northwest region of the CONUS.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 28, 2022 10:08:55 GMT -6
12z gfs is more amplified/north
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 28, 2022 10:09:40 GMT -6
gfs warmer again with round one..buncha rain
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 28, 2022 10:11:31 GMT -6
So we're gonna go back north again this morning eh? Good times.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 28, 2022 10:14:05 GMT -6
Gfs still looks like quite a bit of Ice in the metro, thats not what I like to see.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 28, 2022 10:15:15 GMT -6
So we're gonna go back north again this morning eh? Good times. It still has a ton of ice and decent snow after the initial rain for most of the metro. Actually, it reminds me a lot of the New Years storm, but with more penetration of the cold air. I think models are underestimating the kicker wave at the end. That thing will be your money maker. |
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Jan 28, 2022 10:17:39 GMT -6
So we're gonna go back north again this morning eh? Good times. It still has a ton of ice and decent snow after the initial rain for most of the metro. Actually, it reminds me a lot of the New Years storm, but with more penetration of the cold air. I see the same thing as well. We all know we are going to get these wobbles but the message appears the same. Things looking positive for some decent winter weather in our area and I will take that. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 28, 2022 10:18:51 GMT -6
GFs initially looked stronger with that final kicker wave but then it gets shredded out as it ejects.
Even with that solution that’s an impactful winter storm across the area
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 28, 2022 10:19:00 GMT -6
Ends up getting us in the end though. Only difference is that it holds up the surface freezing line.
Also, I don't think I've ever seen a -51 degree reading on the models in Canada. Holy smokes.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 28, 2022 10:22:21 GMT -6
Lol, GFS has a temp of -28 in Columbia next Friday morning
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 28, 2022 10:23:43 GMT -6
Hannibal really gets it on that run both in terms of snow and freezing rain.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 28, 2022 10:24:08 GMT -6
Looking more and more likely if we get a good snow cover, we're going well below 0
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Post by amstilost on Jan 28, 2022 10:26:02 GMT -6
A few stray snow flakes here and there. Mostly cloudy with peeks of sun 7 miles west of De Soto.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 28, 2022 10:42:02 GMT -6
There seems to be a theme of some runs showing the boundary lifting ahead of that lead wave but simultaneously showing moderate to potentially heavy precipitation falling along it and on the cold side with steady CAA closer to the surface. I have a very hard time believing that a front that strong will lift like that...but the elevated WAA is in play. That's a major recipe for icing until the wave(s) passes and allows the deeper cold to come in setting the stage for the final primary short wave which will likely be snow for much of the area.
Still plenty to sort out with P-types, but this continues to look like a major winter storm for the region.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 28, 2022 10:45:00 GMT -6
I can't wait for the NAM to show 2" of ice and 2 feet of snow Sunday night.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 28, 2022 10:46:32 GMT -6
Dangum GEM is amplifying the lead wave as well. That would be crappy if the trend continues.
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 28, 2022 10:46:53 GMT -6
I can't wait for the NAM to show 2" of ice and 2 feet of snow Sunday night. You serious, Clark? |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 28, 2022 10:47:02 GMT -6
12z ukmet is legendary
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 28, 2022 10:48:16 GMT -6
I can't wait for the NAM to show 2" of ice and 2 feet of snow Sunday night. You serious, Clark? The first time the NAM shows a storm is always something crazy. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 28, 2022 10:49:45 GMT -6
UKmet has 1.5" of liquid and still going strong. All with temps sub 30.
Also, why do I feel like UKmet used to come out around 11:30? Not 10:30
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 28, 2022 10:49:45 GMT -6
GEFS has been trending slower and stronger with the trough over the last few runs That should increase the icing/rain potential on the front side but it should also increase the precipitation post frontal which should be mostly snow  |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 28, 2022 10:50:14 GMT -6
Gem is mostly rain for the metro area heavy ice 20 miles north and heavy snow 50 miles north
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 28, 2022 10:50:51 GMT -6
UKmet has 1.5" of liquid and still going strong. All with temps sub 30. Also, why do I feel like UKmet used to come out around 11:30? Not 10:30 Day light savings time… |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 28, 2022 10:51:13 GMT -6
I like seeing those 12" opening acts before the main show. I'd give up winter next year to have that UKMET run actually play out. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 28, 2022 10:54:37 GMT -6
hopefully the GEM is drunk on maple syrup
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I will guess something at Timber Ridge.
