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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 28, 2022 12:39:16 GMT -6
The positive snow depth change and FRAM ice chart off that euro run are very impressive
That would be a major major winter storm for the area
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 28, 2022 12:40:04 GMT -6
Temps go well below zero on this run by Friday morning.
Can’t overstate that factor when ice is in play.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 28, 2022 12:40:09 GMT -6
just scanning things..looks like the euro has over 2" of qpf..with 1.5 or so at or below 32
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 28, 2022 12:43:52 GMT -6
Verbatim that's about as high of impact as it ever gets around here.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 28, 2022 12:46:07 GMT -6
I'm rooting for the UKMET. I want 99 to have to buy some Depends.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 28, 2022 12:46:41 GMT -6
if the euro and ukie are right this board would break records
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 28, 2022 12:48:07 GMT -6
Can't wait to be singing in 33 degree rain!
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 28, 2022 12:48:51 GMT -6
If those two are correct I’m hanging up my truck keys and turning off my phone......
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Post by amstilost on Jan 28, 2022 12:58:07 GMT -6
If those two are correct I’m hanging up my truck keys and turning off my phone...... Well, we already know what happens when you "pre-emptively put the plows on and fill the salt trucks." So, just for the sanity of this board, and really if you think about it, all the 'emotional warm fuzzies' that would ensue from these 2 model runs how could you not do exactly what you just proposed? Human relations out beyond this board would be positively affected by this outcome. We are all counting on you to do the right thing.  Edit: Such a heartfelt gesture could even pull the snow line further south. You never know. |
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 28, 2022 13:01:47 GMT -6
If those two are correct I’m hanging up my truck keys and turning off my phone...... Well, we already know what happens when you "pre-emptively put the plows on and fill the salt trucks." So, just for the sanity of this board, and really if you think about it, all the 'emotional warm fuzzies' that would ensue from these 2 model runs how could you not do exactly what you just proposed? Human relations out beyond this board would be positively affected by this outcome. We are all counting on you to do the right thing. Edit: Such a heartfelt gesture could even pull the snow line further south. You never know. I’m fortunate enough to have enough trucks that once the plows and spreaders go on they don’t come off until the season is over completely. The hoppers don’t get loaded until I’m ready to leave the shop. It’ll pack tight otherwise and won’t flow properly through the trough. |
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Jan 28, 2022 13:06:37 GMT -6
The UKMET is nothing more than the pretty girl saying she will think about going out with you  But she sure is pretty |
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 28, 2022 13:08:24 GMT -6
That's a complicated arrangement of features on the Euro as the main shortwave passes through. Take hour 141 for example. There appears to be 2 distinct 500mb vorticity maxima, 1 in AR and a 2nd near KS/MO border. This, along with deep convection and latent heating in the south, seem to be contributing to 2 distinct 700mb waves and 850mb lows ranging from northern MO to southern AR. I would prefer to see this tidy up for the finale in the hopes that the lift concentrates in our sweet spot.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 28, 2022 13:20:24 GMT -6
That's a complicated arrangement of features on the Euro as the main shortwave passes through. Take hour 141 for example. There appears to be 2 distinct 500mb vorticity maxima, 1 in AR and a 2nd near KS/MO border. This, along with deep convection and latent heating in the south, seem to be contributing to 2 distinct 700mb waves and 850mb lows ranging from northern MO to southern AR. I would prefer to see this tidy up for the finale in the hopes that the lift concentrates in our sweet spot. Agreed. Definitely some uncertainty about how the energy transfer all plays out. Seems like some runs throw the bulk of energy well out front of the primary shortwave and others have a more traditional look where the main wave is more closely tied to the divergence/DPVA pocket like you'd expect. The runs that throw more energy out front stall the boundary sooner and have a warmer thermo profile...but that still looks a bit suspect to me. Lots to figure out still but the overwhelming message after looking at the AM runs is that this still very much looks like a major winter storm for the immediate region and the Metro. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 28, 2022 13:21:39 GMT -6
12z EPS mean snowfall If we assume the greatest icing threat will be immeadily south of the max snowfall, that puts the metro points south in the max ice potential  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 28, 2022 13:49:02 GMT -6
Hey 920 and others who use WB...does that have sensible weather data like satellite, radar and surface obs available? I'm considering making the switch from Pro AccuWx. TIA.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 28, 2022 14:00:46 GMT -6
12z EPS p-type probabilities  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 28, 2022 14:04:17 GMT -6
Hey 920 and others who use WB...does that have sensible weather data like satellite, radar and surface obs available? I'm considering making the switch from Pro AccuWx. TIA. WXBell has MRMS and RTMA data available I’m not sure how that compares to what AccuWX offers |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 28, 2022 14:21:21 GMT -6
Hey 920 and others who use WB...does that have sensible weather data like satellite, radar and surface obs available? I'm considering making the switch from Pro AccuWx. TIA. WXBell has MRMS and RTMA data available I’m not sure how that compares to what AccuWX offers I'm not either, lol. Much of AccuWx's data is outdated but I also kind of like that in a way. Some of this newer stuff is kind of flashy when it doesn't really need to be. Those GIFs that you post are pretty cool though and it would be nice to have better hi-res charts. Hard decision...guess I'll try the trial out and see. If they have an AWIPS-like setup like the animator that AccuWx has, it might be an easy decision. Thanks. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 28, 2022 14:39:18 GMT -6
Any signs indicating any convection with next week's system?
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 28, 2022 14:44:35 GMT -6
Confidence is high that a strong winter system will move through the
mid-Mississippi Valley during the middle portion of next week and
produce measurable snowfall. The NBM 25th percentile is now
producing light snow across much of the mid-Mississippi Valley and
most GEFS and ECMWF members indicate at least measurable
snowfall. But there is great uncertainty in when rain will
transition to snow, where this will occur, and where the heaviest
snow will fall. Shifts in the southeastward progression of the
cold front, depth of the post-frontal air mass, and the track of
the system will greatly impact how much precipitation and snow is
able to fall.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 28, 2022 14:45:26 GMT -6
I’m sure we won’t have a real good handle on the storm till maybe Monday sometime. It definitely stinks that St. Louis is always on the edge of frozen and none frozen, probably 75% or more of the time the dividing line goes through the viewing area. This makes such a difficult forecast, next week could be a bear to forecast with rain in southern sections - sleet /freezing rain central and snow northern viewing area . At least we have something decent to model watch for the next few days
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 28, 2022 14:49:09 GMT -6
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 28, 2022 14:52:01 GMT -6
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 28, 2022 15:02:54 GMT -6
I’m sure we won’t have a real good handle on the storm till maybe Monday sometime. It definitely stinks that St. Louis is always on the edge of frozen and none frozen, probably 75% or more of the time the dividing line goes through the viewing area. This makes such a difficult forecast, next week could be a bear to forecast with rain in southern sections - sleet /freezing rain central and snow northern viewing area . At least we have something decent to model watch for the next few days Yep, that's one thing I hate about most of the storms in the STL area. Always borderline across the area. We always need that push of colder air quicker. Which 9x out of 10 the WWA wins here. Also these overrunning events almost always come in waves. And we know how the wave scenario works here. Example- wave one, all rain or rain switching to a mix. Or just stays all rain with wave one. Wave 2, rain/mix finally switching over to hamsters or big cold rain drops in some parts then back to rain again. Or wave 2 never happens. Sometimes the system throws a wave 3 in there. 🤣 |
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Post by amstilost on Jan 28, 2022 15:20:01 GMT -6
Wow, 18z NAM has Boston at 29" of snow in 36hrs. That is pretty much NAM wheelhouse, forecast wise, correct? I know we talk about the NAM having inflated QPF but this is closing off earlier and with 3 closed contours at 500mb. Is this a case of inflated QPF or because of stronger storm? This even has more for NYC and locations further west. How in the world do met's not go crazy?
Edit: Good to see a certain publication already getting the scoop that this storm is because of climate change.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 28, 2022 15:23:16 GMT -6
Wow, 18z NAM has Boston at 29" of snow in 36hrs. That is pretty much NAM wheelhouse, forecast wise, correct? I know we talk about the NAM having inflated QPF but this is closing off earlier and with 3 closed contours at 500mb. Is this a case of inflated QPF or because of stronger storm? This even has more for NYC and locations further west. How in the world do met's not go crazy? Edit: Good to see a certain publication already getting the scoop that this storm is because of climate change. Ohhh you bet they are going crazy!! |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 28, 2022 15:33:25 GMT -6
I vote we pretend the 18z Icon run didn’t happen.
Way, way, way north. Within the envelope of possibilities, but definitely at the extreme that run.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 28, 2022 15:35:16 GMT -6
That model bounces around more than any model out there buts possible, it has his near 60 on Wednesday and rain, probably not going to happen…
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 28, 2022 15:38:38 GMT -6
I vote we pretend the 18z Icon run didn’t happen. Way, way, way north. Within the envelope of possibilities, but definitely at the extreme that run. Look at the energy it has held back in the trough at the end there. Would probably have a monster “wave 2” if it kept running. |
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 28, 2022 15:45:23 GMT -6
Any signs indicating any convection with next week's system? Generally speaking the right entrance region of an anticyclonicly curved downstream jet can be an area of interest for a variety of reasons, but I'm not seeing anything obvious that would lead me to believe it is any more likely than the already low chances with our typical classic winter storms. When we get closer and the synoptic features stop bouncing around in models I'll probably start digging into time/height cross sections, vertical cross sections, and soundings though. |
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But she sure is pretty
