|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jan 13, 2022 18:17:50 GMT -6
thanks fiv..hope you're right
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 13, 2022 18:21:29 GMT -6
18z euro Pretty juicy  Snow depth field is much less impressive |
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jan 13, 2022 18:29:53 GMT -6
show the snow ..god it's like pulling teeth around here.  |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2022 18:32:17 GMT -6
how much of that is rain 920? Probably not much. The warm air with this system is very shallow and confined to the lowest 1-2k feet. There is hardly any warm air advection in the mid-level that would screw us over. Once precep rates pick up, this will be all snow. The warm air at the surface will get overwhelmed. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2022 18:41:49 GMT -6
Snow depth field is much less impressive Ya borderline surface temps are going to make this sloppy. But like the Cobb data off the NAM indicated some enhanced lift in the DGZ could offset that with good dendritic growth and flake size. Going to be an interesting one. |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 13, 2022 18:41:52 GMT -6
I’m hoping the models are underestimating the dynamics for the changeover. That’s going to make a big difference for most of us.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2022 18:58:55 GMT -6
I’m hoping the models are underestimating the dynamics for the changeover. That’s going to make a big difference for most of us. I have a gut feeling they may be. Some of the model depictions dampen the stronger forcing as the mid-level system digs to the S...if that pivot happens a bit sooner it could really put the breaks on this and focus strong Fgen and possibly even a full blown TROWAL over the region. There is still a split between the EC and GEM which are a bit further W and diggy and the GFS and NAM which are further E and pivot sooner. If that happens in just the right spot this could go kaboom. But it still looks like it may not happen for us...it's a very close call. Tonight's runs will be telling with all the energy on the playing field and getting sampled. |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 13, 2022 19:10:44 GMT -6
21 sref mean for STL is just a tick under 6 inches.
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 13, 2022 19:15:29 GMT -6
Nice to see the SREF that strong, I think we’re all in in pretty good shape, one things for sure all models have definitely increased QPF today by a decent amount of we can keep some strong precipitation rates and mostly snow could be a nice little moderate event
|
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Jan 13, 2022 19:21:10 GMT -6
21 sref mean for STL is just a tick under 6 inches. 8 members with 8+ As well. Reminds me of the Jan 11, 2019 storm where the Sref increased totals the last 6-7 runs leading up to that event. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2022 19:40:47 GMT -6
00z HRRRrrrr looks pretty good out of the gates here
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Jan 13, 2022 19:43:28 GMT -6
0Z NBM is looking better. It is showing 4" or so for most of the metro area.  |
|
|
|
Post by jeffcobeeman on Jan 13, 2022 19:45:45 GMT -6
What stage are we at again? COLD NOVEMBER RAIN... Singing in the Rain stage? 😆 |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 13, 2022 19:50:10 GMT -6
00z HRRR is substantially better.
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 19:54:51 GMT -6
Yes all good runs, lets see what the nam is going to do now lol
|
|
|
|
Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 13, 2022 19:55:54 GMT -6
00z HRRR is substantially better. We can not get rid of the that hole down this way …… I’ve never seen a hole so redundant |
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 20:06:35 GMT -6
Nam is coming out showing a ton of rain up front this run, however as everyone has mentioned it should likely become snow much quicker than modeled, kin of look like it could really go kaboom as well however
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jan 13, 2022 20:10:09 GMT -6
love nice rainy friday nights with a temp of 33-34. Good god
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2022 20:11:01 GMT -6
Nam is coming out showing a ton of rain up front this run, however as everyone has mentioned it should likely become snow much quicker than modeled, kin of look like it could really go kaboom as well however looking at soundings, that would definitely be wet snow at 06z  |
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 20:11:57 GMT -6
Boy that snow is intense though saturday morning on the nam. if it does not rain as much as it shows, its a big storm
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jan 13, 2022 20:12:47 GMT -6
2/3 of an inch of rain. Awesome
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 20:14:10 GMT -6
Nah as snowstorm alluded too its actually snow snowman, the model just doesnt understand the assignment
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 13, 2022 20:16:31 GMT -6
Definitely warmer than we want, we need it to trend colder by a degree or two . Should be snow but to warm for my liking
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jan 13, 2022 20:17:32 GMT -6
What a feces filled run
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 20:18:10 GMT -6
when chris starts worrying bout rain then I will, but right now at least it keeps uping the moisture
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 13, 2022 20:19:04 GMT -6
Very true… not what I wanted to see
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 20:20:49 GMT -6
Definately one of the most dissapointing things Ive seen tracking a storm all week and now seeing it be a rainer. lets hope for a big suprise, otherwise I think Im moving to where it actually snows. tennessee lol
|
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 13, 2022 20:23:35 GMT -6
You crack me up. Never fails. Neither do you |
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 20:23:47 GMT -6
I guess the WAM is Strong
|
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Jan 13, 2022 20:24:19 GMT -6
Looks ugly to me, compared with just a few runs ago.
|
|
