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Post by bdgwx on Jan 29, 2022 22:18:00 GMT -6
1/30 01Z NBM KSTL
10-90% = 0.8" to 21.1"
25-75% = 1.8" to 13.4"
50% = 6.5"
S = 9.1"
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 29, 2022 22:20:43 GMT -6
Looking at this, the snowfall maps include sleet. I’d say anything south of light blue is where it’s picking up sleet. And that checks out when comparing precip maps.  |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 29, 2022 22:23:44 GMT -6
There has definitely been a trend today for the snow line going south …… I hope this continues and we get less ice
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 29, 2022 22:28:03 GMT -6
This is all possible because the Southern jet rolls out a broken bowling ball that slowly moves East and slightly south of East through the Southern States.
SO THIS SYSTEM OPENS THE GOM FOR BUSINESS.
Unfortunately the GFS at your 69 has PWATS OF 1" QPF.
THAT'S LIKE 99TH PERCENTILE.
IT'S WHY WE GET 1-1.5" of cold COLD RAIN
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Post by landscaper on Jan 29, 2022 22:30:04 GMT -6
I’ll take an inch of rain if I can get a 12-18” snow and sleet storm
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 29, 2022 22:32:18 GMT -6
Hey, didn’t 82 start with an inch of rain?
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 29, 2022 22:33:24 GMT -6
There has definitely been a trend today for the snow line going south …… I hope this continues and we get less ice It's starting to look like a 3 piecemeal system. Rain Flooding Cold rain Thunder showers??? Wintry mixer Wet snow Mix baggy Sleet snow to all snow Heavy snow Big question what is the duration of the heavy snow |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 29, 2022 22:37:40 GMT -6
Gem looks to be another good run on the black a d white charts , maybe not as beefy as 12z but solid and cold more snow than ice
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Post by pbc12871 on Jan 29, 2022 22:38:14 GMT -6
I can already feel the anxiety of waiting for the rain/sleet to change to snow.
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modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 835
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Post by modracer on Jan 29, 2022 22:40:57 GMT -6
Same, got the snowblower ready on last week’s non storm, and didn’t get any snow. Today I ran down to the farm and picked up the tractor, getting ready for this week’s storm, so you can also blame me....lol I'm going to do my part to jinx it... just lettung you all know. Tomorrow I'll fill the gas cans, do the maintenance on my blower and buy salt. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 29, 2022 22:40:57 GMT -6
Ukie completely suppresses the main energy as well
It does look alittle bit better than its 12 run
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jan 29, 2022 22:40:59 GMT -6
Any chance of thundersnow with this one?
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Post by landscaper on Jan 29, 2022 22:41:58 GMT -6
Ukmet just vaporized the storm , suppression city . Basically 3-4” of snow and then nothing in the whole state . Hopefully that’s not a start of a trend, snow mentioned euro control at 18z was suppressed
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Post by pbc12871 on Jan 29, 2022 22:43:15 GMT -6
Ha ha! So it begins..
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 29, 2022 22:43:45 GMT -6
Hey, didn’t 82 start with an inch of rain? Yes it did. The 18z ham might be the most amazing be fantasy set up ever. The sounding for Belleville at 84 hours. Like are you WHAT?? THATS HEAVY SNOW XINFINITY!!! The DGZ is so deep right through the best lift. Easily 2" an hour or higher    |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 29, 2022 22:45:18 GMT -6
I'll take suppressed and 4-8"
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 29, 2022 22:46:24 GMT -6
00z GEFS mean 10:1 looks good Nice southward jog  |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 29, 2022 22:47:58 GMT -6
Gem is going to be awesome another crusher 24” + most likely
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 29, 2022 22:48:31 GMT -6
GEM is more juiced than GFS and colder.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 29, 2022 22:50:16 GMT -6
Yikes...0Z UKMET evolves part of the trough into a cutoff low and buries it in the southwest.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 29, 2022 22:50:30 GMT -6
It finishes with 24”-32” through the metro, pretty comical
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 29, 2022 22:50:32 GMT -6
Ukmet just vaporized the storm , suppression city . Basically 3-4” of snow and then nothing in the whole state . Hopefully that’s not a start of a trend, snow mentioned euro control at 18z was suppressed 18z EPS still looked really good though.
Basically no change in the mean snowfall from the 12z run
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Post by landscaper on Jan 29, 2022 22:51:51 GMT -6
Someone post the Gem Kuchera for fun sake
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Post by landscaper on Jan 29, 2022 22:53:43 GMT -6
Yes I’m not worried at all, it’s basically on its own with its solution and not what it used to be , it used to be very close to the euro now they are often worlds apart.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 29, 2022 22:54:36 GMT -6
At 84 hours along 44/64/70 corridors we have an incredible frontogenesis band roughly between 750-875MB parked right up 44/64.
Then crazy good divergence around 700-500mb. That is also blasting a major WAA signal.
Then building right into the back of first wave is a slightly left turning jet support.
All in all it that happens.
The name would drop 12-16" through the heart of the metro
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 29, 2022 22:56:23 GMT -6
We've hit a foot on the mean snow (and sleet) depth from the 00z GEFS  |
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 29, 2022 22:56:53 GMT -6
Large majority of GEFS members look good. Some beefy ones in there too.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 29, 2022 22:58:32 GMT -6
I would toss any solution giving 1"+ QPF with wave one and it's all frozen.
No way
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 29, 2022 23:01:31 GMT -6
We've hit a foot on the mean snow (and sleet) depth from the 00z GEFS A very strong signal 3-5 days out. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 29, 2022 23:08:20 GMT -6
Through hour 84.
The gem already has a1.4" QPF almost all rain.
By end still 20" of snow at 10/1 ratios
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