Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 11, 2022 15:15:24 GMT -6
HOWEVER, THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE A
POSSIBLE MULTIFACETED STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED TO TRACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW POSITIONED
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BE EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST BEFORE INTERACTING WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE STILL EXHIBITED CONSIDERABLE
VARIABILITY BETWEEN ONE ANOTHER AS WELL AS FROM RUN TO RUN, NAMELY
IN HOW QUICKLY AN ATTENDANT LOW-LEVEL/ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE
DEEPENS AND WHERE IT TRACKS. THERE IS VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
VIGOROUS ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
(PW IN EXCESS OF 2") FEEDING INTO THE REGION AND RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED VARIABILITY CASTS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT IMPACTS ACROSS THE CWA WHICH COULD RANGE
FROM STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO A WINTER
STORM. THIS VARIABILITY IS NOT UNEXPECTED AT THIS LEAD TIME AND
SHOULD DECREASE AS LEAD TIME DECREASES GOING FORWARD.
POSSIBLE MULTIFACETED STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED TO TRACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW POSITIONED
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BE EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST BEFORE INTERACTING WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE STILL EXHIBITED CONSIDERABLE
VARIABILITY BETWEEN ONE ANOTHER AS WELL AS FROM RUN TO RUN, NAMELY
IN HOW QUICKLY AN ATTENDANT LOW-LEVEL/ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE
DEEPENS AND WHERE IT TRACKS. THERE IS VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
VIGOROUS ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
(PW IN EXCESS OF 2") FEEDING INTO THE REGION AND RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED VARIABILITY CASTS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT IMPACTS ACROSS THE CWA WHICH COULD RANGE
FROM STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO A WINTER
STORM. THIS VARIABILITY IS NOT UNEXPECTED AT THIS LEAD TIME AND
SHOULD DECREASE AS LEAD TIME DECREASES GOING FORWARD.
