Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 11, 2022 15:15:24 GMT -6
HOWEVER, THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE A POSSIBLE MULTIFACETED STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BE EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST BEFORE INTERACTING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE STILL EXHIBITED CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY BETWEEN ONE ANOTHER AS WELL AS FROM RUN TO RUN, NAMELY IN HOW QUICKLY AN ATTENDANT LOW-LEVEL/ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENS AND WHERE IT TRACKS. THERE IS VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VIGOROUS ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE (PW IN EXCESS OF 2") FEEDING INTO THE REGION AND RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED VARIABILITY CASTS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT IMPACTS ACROSS THE CWA WHICH COULD RANGE FROM STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO A WINTER STORM. THIS VARIABILITY IS NOT UNEXPECTED AT THIS LEAD TIME AND SHOULD DECREASE AS LEAD TIME DECREASES GOING FORWARD.
Welcome to the shout box. Just trying this feature out.
gonefishin - WashMO: We have Grandparents Day/Open House at school on Sunday. Getting nervous about the idea of our grandparents walking between church and school with icy conditions. Glad it’s not my call. Hoping the ice holds off.
Jan 26, 2023 9:16:44 GMT -6
bellevillewxguy: The RAP has seen the light! 21Z run is back on course for a major winter storm for almost the entire area!
Jan 23, 2023 16:20:25 GMT -6
ajd446: Is it me or does it appear the 21z sref had a decent shift NW.
Jan 22, 2023 18:29:06 GMT -6
bfsmith81: Christmas Edition thread seems to be broken? Last page of the thread won't load now, with an HTTP 410 error.
Jan 15, 2023 12:29:29 GMT -6
maddogchief: LOUD NOISES!!!
Feb 25, 2019 2:31:00 GMT -6
grizzlebeard: I'll put this here since it rarely rolls over: Please include your location in your profile, or identify your location when posting observations. You saying it is 20 and raining doesn't help if we don't know where you are. That is all.
Feb 7, 2019 13:44:40 GMT -6
giarC71: Hello...this could be historic. And those models of 16 inches or 19 inches.. coild be real..
Jan 11, 2019 18:04:52 GMT -6