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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2022 14:56:46 GMT -6
Actually not much of a change, it just deepens to quickly pulling it north It’s slightly less amplified with the jet streak across the Great Lakes this run. |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 14, 2022 15:19:49 GMT -6
RGEM still south and cold heavy hit of ice and snow
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 14, 2022 15:22:42 GMT -6
what a discrepancy in these models. wow
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Post by landscaper on Feb 14, 2022 15:27:59 GMT -6
Yep , icon not budging still north
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Post by fojginmo on Feb 14, 2022 15:29:53 GMT -6
Only minimally weather related. Just in time for the beginning of severe weather I’m moving to downtown St. Louis. My apartment is nearly on the top floor & I can go to the rooftop to see approaching weather. Woohoo!!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 14, 2022 16:00:00 GMT -6
18z gfs not caving even an inch.
Ensembles also remain north with the mean primary band running from KC to Chicago.
When will the battle end?
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 14, 2022 16:42:24 GMT -6
The battle will end by Friday…….
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2022 16:52:41 GMT -6
Snowfall mean from the 15z SREFs isn't horrible for the NW 1/2 of the area.  |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Feb 14, 2022 17:48:20 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2022 18:13:08 GMT -6
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 14, 2022 18:23:59 GMT -6
18z euro is maybe a touch north of 12z. Still a compromise between the gfs and ggem.
Columbia to Kankakee gets the intense band this run.
Some decent ice and light snow for St. Charles on north.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2022 18:35:50 GMT -6
I'm not seeing Kirksville to Chicago get hardly anything synoptically.
The system ejects on a typical set up that would crush KC to Chicago/We Wisconsin. Hell almost like st Joe to Milwaukee.
However... There is a split flow and the northern jet is coming in from the NW as the Southern wave ejects North East. Well the Southern wave gets straight crushed and sheared out.
The backside precip is going to be squashed as the system tries to explode moving into the region.
Frozen precip therefore will be right up to the surface front as the low passes us.
Definitely a good look for folks NW of 70 getting a warning level sleet/snow fest. Along 44/64 advisory level snow/sleet to end.
So for now:
4-8" NW of 70 of snow and sleet
2-4" of snow and sleet along 44/64
Minor wintry accumulation SE 1/3rd
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Post by landscaper on Feb 14, 2022 18:37:57 GMT -6
Your probably really close on your prediction Friv
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2022 18:47:17 GMT -6
My best guess  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 14, 2022 19:00:13 GMT -6
Move that north 25 miles and I think you got it.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 14, 2022 19:07:24 GMT -6
I like frivolous map in wentzville! But your probably right it’s a little far south maybe
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 14, 2022 19:09:28 GMT -6
Friv get that little of any up to st.peters please and I will be happy. Next week looks so nice and warm and tomorrow and wednesday too we can just skip this storm please and keep us warm lol
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 14, 2022 19:13:27 GMT -6
Festus is right on that red line! Mostly rain!
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2022 19:48:36 GMT -6
 0z NBM |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 14, 2022 19:58:54 GMT -6
Nbm is further south than I thought it would be snowman
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2022 19:59:05 GMT -6
21z SREF mean  |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 14, 2022 20:00:50 GMT -6
Sref the way that map looks looks like could be a ton of sleet in the metro. And also that is further south than i thought it would be. Interesting trends
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 14, 2022 20:37:51 GMT -6
00z nam remains north.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 14, 2022 20:38:57 GMT -6
Actually shifted quite a bit north. Amplification city. |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 14, 2022 20:40:03 GMT -6
Yeah Nam.about misses chicago to the north with most of the snow
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 14, 2022 20:41:17 GMT -6
Yeah Nam.about misses chicago to the north with most of the snow The max band bisects Central Cook County… |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 14, 2022 20:43:34 GMT -6
At this stage I really wonder which model will win... yeah chicago get it well I noticed but much more north and chicago misses it too
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 14, 2022 20:44:48 GMT -6
Be interested to see the gem and rgem. Nam usually is too amplified anyway at this stage as it is out of its 48 hour reliability window
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2022 20:45:28 GMT -6
Sometimes I wonder what some of you people are looking at lol. The 0z NAM is not much of a change from 12 or 18z. All are too far north for the metro, and all will be different tomorrow as the NAM starts coming back to earth.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 14, 2022 21:11:13 GMT -6
00z Icon stays north tracking the low over Farmington.
Ice gets as close as Warren and Lincoln counties.
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