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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 11, 2022 19:26:46 GMT -6
So... I don't have much to add at this point to next week except that this may have a similar look to GHD2.0 but does appear to be lacking a bit in the cold air department. I'm approaching my build up to this as more of a wet weather system with the chance for a "cleansing rain" that will help wash the salt and remnants of the last storm away. That being said... there could be a March-like element to the tail end of this system with a transition to wet snow as cold air finally arrives. But lots of time to go before we even begin to look at details. So... I plucked this link off a facebook page this evening... and holy cow! It may be the coolest webpage I've seen in a long time. Live soundings and balloon tracking anyone? tracker.sondehub.org/?fbclid=IwAR37Y8Geo_VnMA5e6QCWS6C2QETcIeKYY83-G-1Ui9caVdJ1pLGKoTzBnPE#!mt=Mapnik&mz=5&qm=3h&mc=40.11169,-90.26367&f=20049881 |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Feb 11, 2022 19:33:58 GMT -6
That site is cool! The Omaha balloon is cruising!
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Feb 11, 2022 19:36:54 GMT -6
So do the radiosondes get returned? And if they do, what happens to the ones that fly out over the ocean?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 11, 2022 19:48:18 GMT -6
So do the radiosondes get returned? And if they do, what happens to the ones that fly out over the ocean? In practice, very few get returned because most are never found. The ones in the ocean float to the bottom of the sea where they are used as ornaments at the Krusty Krab for Squidward and Sponge Bob  |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Feb 11, 2022 20:34:57 GMT -6
MoSue... it was 44 degrees. Looked more like ice pellets. Don't think it was hail, because it wasn't a thunderstorm.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 11, 2022 20:35:02 GMT -6
18z euro control is nearly a perfect track for STL (Memphis low) next week. Big hit of snow, especially on the northwest side of the metro.
Unfortunately, most of the other euro ensembles are entrenched much further northwest so looks like an outlier.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 11, 2022 21:38:06 GMT -6
00z Icon absolutely pulverizes the metro with ice and snow this run.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 11, 2022 21:44:19 GMT -6
You have the ICON/GEM/GEFS/NAVGEM/Euro Control and JMA all have a more southern solution with backside snow in the Metro. The GFS and Euro are further north, the Euro is not that far off, I could see it coming in weaker and further south soon. The GFS has been the most amped up northern model. Definitely something to watch, Brtn has been saying it’s not the seasonal trend for strong low cutters this year. I know most people don’t mention the JMA or NAVGEM but I still look at them for fun each storm. They are usually fairly close to other models
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 11, 2022 21:54:33 GMT -6
You have the ICON/GEM/GEFS/NAVGEM/Euro Control and JMA all have a more southern solution with backside snow in the Metro. The GFS and Euro are further north, the Euro is not that far off, I could see it coming in weaker and further south soon. The GFS has been the most amped up northern model. Definitely something to watch, Brtn has been saying it’s not the seasonal trend for strong low cutters this year. I know most people don’t mention the JMA or NAVGEM but I still look at them for fun each storm. They are usually fairly close to other models I actually use the JMA to throw out model camps that agree with it 😂 |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 11, 2022 21:58:57 GMT -6
It was a stretch to throw it in there but I do look at it when there’s storms , two days ago it was a cutter, so I look to see it’s trends . I think it and the ICON are models to look at for trends but they do jump around some at times.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 11, 2022 22:12:00 GMT -6
GFS looks to be going south some and weaker
Edit: a little better but still to far north for the metro
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 11, 2022 22:15:10 GMT -6
Gfs is more interesting fer sher
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 11, 2022 22:16:33 GMT -6
00z gfs is basically the GHD storm shifted north 150 miles. I’m a big fan of that run.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 11, 2022 22:21:20 GMT -6
That run hammers Chicago, I’ll take another 75 mile shift south
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 11, 2022 22:42:23 GMT -6
00z ggem remains south/weak/progressive.
While the track is better for the metro, it kind of just fizzles.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 11, 2022 22:43:59 GMT -6
Not a big storm on gem but a good hit of sleet and snow a few inches probably
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 11, 2022 22:48:58 GMT -6
GEFS coming in flatter and more suppressed. Still looks like a couple wrapped up lows that track north of STL but a vast majority of members track the surface low south to well south of STL
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 11, 2022 22:54:51 GMT -6
00z ukmet is like the Icon.
Really nice hit for the metro.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 11, 2022 22:55:39 GMT -6
Wagons south tonight for sure, huge shift south on Ukmet
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Post by landscaper on Feb 11, 2022 22:56:24 GMT -6
By tomorrow we just might have a potential watcher
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2022 0:31:49 GMT -6
Euro looks like a pretty big hit of ice and snow on the backside
Interesting trends tonight
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 12, 2022 5:16:49 GMT -6
6z Gfs is south of the 00z Gfs which was south of 18z. Continues to shift south. We may have a bit of a watcher.
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 12, 2022 5:27:08 GMT -6
Wind blown flurries this morning 20° and still dropping 5:25am
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Feb 12, 2022 7:56:52 GMT -6
Flurry action Northern JeffCo ❄️
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 12, 2022 8:07:32 GMT -6
Flurries here ! Great call BRTN
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Post by dschreib on Feb 12, 2022 8:11:26 GMT -6
Flurries here ! Great call BRTN Was just coming on to post that, so I’ll just make this my obligatory “following” post instead. |
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Post by tedrick65 on Feb 12, 2022 8:26:21 GMT -6
I can second the flurry action in north Jeffco.
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Post by amstilost on Feb 12, 2022 8:31:29 GMT -6
Flurries, almost light snow with some dime sized flakes faling 7 miles west of De Soto. Great call Brtn.
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Feb 12, 2022 8:39:12 GMT -6
A few flakes gently falling, almost a mood.
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 12, 2022 8:42:45 GMT -6
Thanks Chris for starting a new thread! Have a good weekend! Go Bengals!
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