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Post by landscaper on Nov 29, 2022 16:12:06 GMT -6
Yes modeling for December has changed a lot in a week, the once cold and potentially stormy weather is basically home off the models. Very seasonal to above average at times over the next two weeks with no real good signs of it flipping to winter like earlier indications shows
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 29, 2022 17:25:33 GMT -6
Is the front coming through dry? Some action north of I-70 including a thunderstorm northwest of Carlinville, IL |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 29, 2022 20:18:51 GMT -6
Basically we are on the western edge of a mean trough over the east in the med to long range, so while we get glancing blows of cold, it's a generally dry cold for us. For grins I took a look at the CFS and it gets very active with winter weather in this part of the country just prior to and extending past Christmas. Lots of ice here in the metro, with lots of snow to our west. Of course the cfs has no predictability, so I wouldn't take it too seriously. It's just something to look at for fun, but nothing to latch on.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 29, 2022 20:22:40 GMT -6
Still the thing I'd watch for is a prolonged period of rain the first week of December. some of the models have sort of backed off on the idea and replaced it with a period of unsettled weather (off and on showers), but we could see pretty decent rainfall amounts starting this upcoming weekend, well into the following week.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 29, 2022 20:33:22 GMT -6
Winds are crazy. I thought we were going to have 30 to 35 mph gusts tonight, but i feel like ive seen some 45 mph gusts easy.
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Nov 30, 2022 8:56:42 GMT -6
My kids were shocked this morning when I told them that they couldn't wear shorts to school, lol.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 30, 2022 10:07:29 GMT -6
Yes modeling for December has changed a lot in a week, the once cold and potentially stormy weather is basically home off the models. Very seasonal to above average at times over the next two weeks with no real good signs of it flipping to winter like earlier indications shows The wave pattern in the E Pacific looks much less supportive than before. A west-based -NAO develops but the kiss of death Gulf of Alaska trof rears it's ugly head around the same time and pretty well cancels the -NAO out. Beaker's expectations of cold(ish) and dry looks pretty realistic with no major storms on the horizon. Maybe this will set up a good run into the Christmas holiday stretch... |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 30, 2022 11:40:54 GMT -6
Apparently the GFS got upgraded today to version 16.3 as of the 12z run?
Never heard anything about it.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 30, 2022 11:43:52 GMT -6
Apparently the GFS got upgraded today to version 16.3 as of the 12z run? Never heard anything about it. According to Ryan Maue, version 16.3 actually has slightly worse verification scores than the previous version lol. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 30, 2022 13:18:09 GMT -6
Pretty bad tornado down in Montgomery, AL. 2 people killed and some neighborhoods destroyed, might of been be a EF3 or 4? Survey teams will probably be out today or tomorrow to have a look.
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 30, 2022 13:34:45 GMT -6
The lower verification score could just be noise. One big change is better microphysics for improved snow depth forecasts. It was overestimating depths in marginal temperature scenarios and underestimating depths in very cold scenarios. We were definitely seeing that last year. It also now assimilates the radio occultations from Spain's PAZ "spy" satellite, wind data from MetOp-C, and ozone data from NOAA-20. GOES-18 and NOAA-21 data will be included in the next update. www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf2/scn22-104_gfs.v16.3.0.pdf |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 30, 2022 16:07:14 GMT -6
Locking this thread up and will have a new one shortly.
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