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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 25, 2022 11:38:51 GMT -6
Big model battle emerging which will determine the fate of December/early January.
Gfs favors Scandinavian/Barents Sea blocking while the euro favors Greenland blocking.
Gfs would position things well for a SSW and PV split which could produce a 20-40 day period of relatively harsh winter conditions for those east of the Rockies.
In fact, the 12z gfs today is trying to split the vortex around December 8th.
Let’s see which model can sniff this thing out.
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GlenEd
Weather Weenie
Glen Carbon, Il
Posts: 20 
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Post by GlenEd on Nov 25, 2022 15:37:50 GMT -6
Have lurked here since the Ice Storm of '06! Check in everyday to see what's going on and feel like a bunch of you are old friends. Thanks Chris, and all of you, for an amazing forum!
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 25, 2022 21:57:47 GMT -6
Freezing fog is a concern tomorrow early morning IMO on sheltered roads. Major roads should be fine. The sun angle is very low this time of year and some roads don't see much sunlight at all on them. Already down below freezing at KSUS. Temps are falling quickly, but may warm a few degrees when the stratus and fog moves into our area after midnight. Hopefully people are more careful with driving and looking at their phone. A more rare weather situation which we only see every once in awhile.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 26, 2022 7:23:42 GMT -6
Freezing fog is a concern tomorrow early morning IMO on sheltered roads. Major roads should be fine. The sun angle is very low this time of year and some roads don't see much sunlight at all on them. Already down below freezing at KSUS. Temps are falling quickly, but may warm a few degrees when the stratus and fog moves into our area after midnight. Hopefully people are more careful with driving and looking at their phone. A more rare weather situation which we only see every once in awhile. Yes sir! It's even more sneaky than black ice! |
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Bruce - N0NSR
Weather Weenie
Posts: 57
Snowfall Events: 2.5" - Jan 15, 2015
0.5" - Feb 4, 2015
2.0" - Nov 14-15, 2018
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Post by Bruce - N0NSR on Nov 26, 2022 7:30:07 GMT -6
Freezing fog is a concern tomorrow early morning IMO on sheltered roads. Major roads should be fine. The sun angle is very low this time of year and some roads don't see much sunlight at all on them. Already down below freezing at KSUS. Temps are falling quickly, but may warm a few degrees when the stratus and fog moves into our area after midnight. Hopefully people are more careful with driving and looking at their phone. A more rare weather situation which we only see every once in awhile. We live about halfway between Farmington and Fredericktown on a state road that's shaded pretty well and what little traffic that's gone by (7AM Saturday) is moving carefully. Our porch could substitute for an ice skating rink this morning. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Nov 26, 2022 8:26:15 GMT -6
Freezing fog is a concern tomorrow early morning IMO on sheltered roads. Major roads should be fine. The sun angle is very low this time of year and some roads don't see much sunlight at all on them. Already down below freezing at KSUS. Temps are falling quickly, but may warm a few degrees when the stratus and fog moves into our area after midnight. Hopefully people are more careful with driving and looking at their phone. A more rare weather situation which we only see every once in awhile. Good call on the freezing fog …… it is slick in some spots down this way |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 26, 2022 9:10:52 GMT -6
Definitely a good call!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 26, 2022 11:07:45 GMT -6
It looks like there's at least a marginal severe threat Tuesday evening...GFS shows the 60* Td line lifting into the S half of the area with ~500j/kg of SBCAPE developing amidst strong shear. Isolated severe gusts and tornadoes seem possible with this setup.
Looking down the road, the pattern still looks mild overall into the first part of December. But the frigid air developing across Canada is going to start to ooze southward into the first full week of the month and the pattern looks loaded for an overrunning event around D10 on the models. I could see an ice storm threat developing if model trends hold.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 26, 2022 14:16:27 GMT -6
It looks like there's at least a marginal severe threat Tuesday evening...GFS shows the 60* Td line lifting into the S half of the area with ~500j/kg of SBCAPE developing amidst strong shear. Isolated severe gusts and tornadoes seem possible with this setup. Looking down the road, the pattern still looks mild overall into the first part of December. But the frigid air developing across Canada is going to start to ooze southward into the first full week of the month and the pattern looks loaded for an overrunning event around D10 on the models. I could see an ice storm threat developing if model trends hold. 12z euro certainly shows the beginning of a significant overrunning event at D10. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 26, 2022 15:05:53 GMT -6
Thanks all! I just knew from past weather that you should never mess with the combo of sub freezing temps and fog. The radiational cooling conditions overnight into the morning ended up being better than what was forecasted it seems. KSUS ended up at 23*. Last night NOAA'S point forecast had KSUS at 31*. A whopping 8* colder than expected!
Now I'll leave you all to make the much harder forecasts. It's much easier to forecast freezing fog than wintry precip and severe weather! 😉
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 26, 2022 16:05:31 GMT -6
No ice storms please next month!
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 26, 2022 19:31:10 GMT -6
It looks like there's at least a marginal severe threat Tuesday evening...GFS shows the 60* Td line lifting into the S half of the area with ~500j/kg of SBCAPE developing amidst strong shear. Isolated severe gusts and tornadoes seem possible with this setup. Looking down the road, the pattern still looks mild overall into the first part of December. But the frigid air developing across Canada is going to start to ooze southward into the first full week of the month and the pattern looks loaded for an overrunning event around D10 on the models. I could see an ice storm threat developing if model trends hold. Description I heard is that the first 2/3 of December will be similar to November. Unseasonably warm for the first 5 to 7 days then much colder. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 27, 2022 0:15:28 GMT -6
That prolonged precipitation event has been in the models for quite some time for the period around 12/5 to 12/6. Euro hints at a potential ice 70 and north. Just so much run to run consistency for that time period that I can no longer ignore. About 5 days ago the gefs really had one member suggesting it, but then the operational models have seem to find that storm. In the scenario, I'm thinking there's potential for icing, and if not icing, potential for a heavy prolonged rain event with temperatures just south of 32. A very miserable period in either case, that could usher in a pattern change for a while in December.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 27, 2022 8:59:22 GMT -6
Tuesday Night DEFINITELY Warrants a watch. Models digging this thing deeper and deeper each run and a touch slower/more west. The metro and points southeast are under the gun for some twisters, similar to Dec 10th, 2021 especially towards the bootheel into Memphis/Little Rock area. Also can't rule out a fast hit of moderate sleet and or snow on the backside of this system that could put down a dusting to an inch on elevated and grassy surfaces. Then windy and sharply colder Wednesday.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 27, 2022 10:06:27 GMT -6
Have lurked here since the Ice Storm of '06! Check in everyday to see what's going on and feel like a bunch of you are old friends. Thanks Chris, and all of you, for an amazing forum! Good to hear from you! |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 27, 2022 10:08:11 GMT -6
Long-time lurker here. Still alive and happily retired for almost 3 months!! Happy Thanksgiving to all on the corner!! I am very grateful for this forum! I don't chime in often unless I have something to report. You all are so far ahead of me with models that I am just happy to read what you have to say. Chris, you are, in my humble opinion, the best meteorologist on TV! Thanks for following along! The lurkers are as much apart of the group as our regulars! I frequently hear from folks who follow along with us but don't post. Happy Holidays! |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 27, 2022 10:09:11 GMT -6
Lurking, as always, for many years..... Happy Thanksgiving to all !! Happy Holidays! |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 27, 2022 10:10:54 GMT -6
Have lurked here since the Ice Storm of '06! Check in everyday to see what's going on and feel like a bunch of you are old friends. Thanks Chris, and all of you, for an amazing forum! Good to hear from you!!! |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 27, 2022 10:12:18 GMT -6
Happy Thanksgiving all from another long time lurker 🙂 Good to hear from you weathermom! |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 27, 2022 10:12:50 GMT -6
Always lurking here. Happy thanksgiving and thank you for this forum! Happy holidays! |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 27, 2022 10:13:52 GMT -6
HAPPY THANKSGIVING everyone! I would love to have our lurkers chime in and say hello... just so we know you are all alive and watching 😄. Hello and chiming in with a happy Thanksgiving Weekend to one and all. Been lurking on the Corner since early days. Huge thanks to Chris and all the regulars who keep the Corner informative, educational. and sometimes a bit edgy with some of the back and forth. It is a quirky group that is fun to watch! |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 27, 2022 10:43:05 GMT -6
12z gfs has a big winter storm across the upper Midwest from D8-D10.
Then, it goes full Barney with a 1057 high dropping down. Intense cold for most of the country.
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 27, 2022 11:03:43 GMT -6
With blocking coming into play, the pieces are definitely there for a big change to cold for a large part of the country starting the first week of Dec. Starting in the nw and northern plains, spreading se with time. Overrunning and storms very possible as it spreads. It could..COULD get very very cold around here during mid month
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 27, 2022 14:50:41 GMT -6
Lots of questions about Tuesday night... but there are definitely some potent ingredients on the table to our south. But enough of a signal that we need to watch trends in time/space/paramaters as far north as I-70. The instability is much more favorable further south... but dew points near or above 60 just ahead of the cold front is pretty impressive as the strongest energy approaches.
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Post by gfrig - Troy, MO on Nov 27, 2022 16:16:54 GMT -6
Been here a long time. Reading and learning. What has been a joy is to "see" some of the youngsters from the beginning all grown up! I am so thankful for this group and for Chris in giving us this space for discussions. Hope all had a wonderful Thanksgiving
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 27, 2022 16:20:48 GMT -6
Has anyone heard from grizzlebeard? Glad Friv is still around!
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Post by snowday_lover on Nov 27, 2022 17:55:49 GMT -6
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! I've been a lurker on this blog for years... I rarely post, but I am on it daily. I really enjoy the winter weather and I enjoy sharing the weather news I get on here with my co-workers and friends and family. Thanks to Chris and everyone else that joins in!
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Nov 27, 2022 19:28:06 GMT -6
Happy Thanksgiving! Here’s to some wintry weather soon!
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Post by REB on Nov 28, 2022 7:31:48 GMT -6
Happy Birthday to “House springs, deer killer. “
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Nov 28, 2022 7:53:15 GMT -6
Happy Birthday to “House springs, deer killer. “ Thank you ☺️ Now if we could get some snow soon I'll get the gift I've been wanting! |
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