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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 18, 2023 11:12:00 GMT -6
One more week...lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 18, 2023 11:31:57 GMT -6
Not much support on the GEFS for the amped up solution. The 00z EPS has several solutions similar to the ICON/GEM.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 18, 2023 11:34:31 GMT -6
Not much support on the GEFS for the amped up solution. The 00z EPS has several solutions similar to the ICON/GEM. I'd say something big is brewing in that timeframe...that's the period that the SOI downturn was signalling. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 18, 2023 11:37:53 GMT -6
The 00z EPS actually favors I-44 with its highest snowfall probs.
Let’s see what the 12z run shows.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 18, 2023 11:37:57 GMT -6
I was joking in the sense that it's too perfect right now so it definitely will not happen. lol |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 18, 2023 12:40:31 GMT -6
Operational euro is close but no cigar next week.
Definitely in the amplified camp though. Just to far east this run
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 18, 2023 12:43:48 GMT -6
Operational euro is close but no cigar next week. Definitely in the amplified camp though. Just to far east this run Still trying to dig it into the RGV...would be tough to gain enough latitude if that happens. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 18, 2023 12:44:39 GMT -6
Noethern counties may see a burst of snow tomorrow mid-morning...pretty strong vort lobe swinging through.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 18, 2023 12:50:34 GMT -6
why would next week be so far south, nothing blocking it that i can see
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 18, 2023 13:24:56 GMT -6
EPS still looks good and gives some credence to the GEM/ICON solution
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 18, 2023 13:43:11 GMT -6
boy did we dodge a bullet today or what?  Cue the response: if this had been all snow, we would have had...a lot of snow. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 18, 2023 14:03:41 GMT -6
I know everybody hates rain in January but this is really good to see, IMO. We need to replenish that ground water heading into the warm season. Hopefully we can add some snow to the tally soon...
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 18, 2023 14:09:04 GMT -6
I know everybody hates rain in January but this is really good to see, IMO. We need to replenish that ground water heading into the warm season. Hopefully we can add some snow to the tally soon... Todays rains locally are great runoff for the ponds etc. |
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Post by REB on Jan 18, 2023 14:13:25 GMT -6
.81” so far
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Post by bear1 on Jan 18, 2023 14:23:54 GMT -6
.86" Imby 
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 18, 2023 15:13:00 GMT -6
12z EC control run looks solid next week...just a hair SE of our wheelhouse but develops a really beefy deformation and it's plenty cold enough for snow. Still pretty good model trends overall today.
I wouldn't give up on Sunday's event, either...there's a chance the phase trends more favorably and the mid-level system stays closed off. But overall, it's looking like a minor event.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 18, 2023 15:23:13 GMT -6
There’s a lot of big runs in the 12z EPS suite Also a lot of swings and misses to keep expectations in check   |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 18, 2023 15:34:05 GMT -6
What is the EPS mean ?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 18, 2023 15:39:34 GMT -6
The EPS (Ensemble Prediction System) are the ensembles for the Euro. The GFS has the GEFS.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 18, 2023 15:59:11 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 18, 2023 16:00:36 GMT -6
E10...lock it in!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 18, 2023 16:02:42 GMT -6
The EPS (Ensemble Prediction System) are the ensembles for the Euro. The GFS has the GEFS. I think Landscaper was using “mean” as in average. I believe what you showed is a good reason to avoid averages from ensembles sometimes because the distribution is bifurcated. Basically, it is a nothing event or a warning criteria event as currently modeled. So, the average is misleading. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 18, 2023 16:22:46 GMT -6
Don't post a bifurcated post... how many times do we have to tell you- once?
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 18, 2023 16:24:34 GMT -6
I count 33 "nothings"..or less than 2" out of 50. Let's hope that 33 goes down as time goes by
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 18, 2023 16:26:53 GMT -6
The phasing of the overnight Sat/Sun system has me intrigued.
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bfsmith81
Wishcaster
Edwardsville, IL
Posts: 150 
Snowfall Events: Winter of 2023-2024:
01/05/24-1/06/24: 2.5" (Melted almost immediately)
01/12/24-1/13/24: 0.25"
01/15/24: 0.75"
01/18/24-01/19/24: 0.5"
02/16/24: 4.25"
Winter of 2023-2024 Total So Far: 8.25"
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Post by bfsmith81 on Jan 18, 2023 16:35:17 GMT -6
E10, E17, E19 or even E20 i think would make most of us here happy. E10 takes the cake though. Fingers crossed! |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 18, 2023 16:44:29 GMT -6
breaking:coz is intrigued
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 18, 2023 17:19:56 GMT -6
The phasing of the overnight Sat/Sun system has me intrigued. Me too...seems like models are weakening that system too quickly with the phase occuring to our west. The primary vort max gets slingshotted out front and shears/opens up the wave...would think another mid-level low would develop as the phasing occurs. |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 18, 2023 18:00:11 GMT -6
Alright, since none of you will say it, I will.
Imagine
If
This
Was
Snow
…
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 18, 2023 18:32:17 GMT -6
I know everybody hates rain in January but this is really good to see, IMO. We need to replenish that ground water heading into the warm season. Hopefully we can add some snow to the tally soon... We need a drought buster for any good chance of significant snow, IMO |
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