Chris's Corner - The Christmas Edition for 2022
Dec 15, 2022 13:46:58 GMT -6
BRTNWXMAN, REB, and 1 more like this
Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 15, 2022 13:46:58 GMT -6
***EXTREME COLD AND SOME SNOW LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS***
We have been talking this for more than week, the likelihood of a big shot of cold late in the month of December and the possibility of some snow. And while snow tends to get the headlines, it is the cold that really should be our number one focus. Looking at the pattern historically, there is potential for this to be the coldest week before Christmas since 1989. That year, we set new record lows on three consecutive days in the week before Christmas.
Dec 21, 1989 -12
Dec 22, 1989 -16
Dec 23, 1989 -15
That was 1989! I do NOT presently expect temperatures that cold here…but…we certainly could dip to or below 0 by late next week…especially if we get some snow on the ground. With dangerous wind chills to go along with it. This is some serious cold for sure!
What about the snow? That has been the question of the week, the month, the year! Well, there are two chances… one is with a weakening system ejecting out of the southern stream in the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. Moisture is lacking with this system and the wave is being forced through a flat ridge…and shearing out. We’ve been carrying some flurries/light snow with this for a while and I’m not seeing a need to pull away from that. The odds are much better for snow over western/southwester Missouri with that system… so it will just be a matter of how quickly it will weaken.
The next system…and really “THE” system of the week is the Thursday/Friday time frame. This has ban handled 1000 different ways in the long-range models over the past week… but a trend seems to be revealing itself. If you take the big picture pattern… the position of the western ridge…and the unusual alignment of the upper flow from the Great Lakes up to Greenland…you end up with a rapidly moving, hybrid clipper system. It’s bigger than most clippers…and it sure looks cold! This is the feature that is most likely to bring a fast brush with accumulating snow. A system of this origin will have to work with what moisture it brings with it…but given the potential jet dynamics it certainly has the look of at least a light accumulating snow event somewhere in the Midwest. The heaviest snow with a clipper falls north and east of the surface low… so that’s the key spot to track. The other complicating factor with this system will be the wind…so even a light snow will cause significant impacts. And that potential is far more important to focus on than any specific number in terms of accumulations.
Now that all of that is out of the way, it’s time to remind folks about one of the unwritten rules of MTW that has been in place from the very beginning more than a decade ago. That rule is that we always extend professional courtesy to others in the St. Louis Weather Enterprise… Emergency managers, NWS forecasters, and fellow broadcasters lead the way on the “protected list.” (unless you are posting something positive.. that’s different) In the previous thread, a facebook page was called out by name and that violates this unwritten rule. As I have done with others in the past, I’ve discussed the situation offline with the individual(s) involved. And while I have no control over what any of you do or say outside of this forum, please understand that your words, may reflect back on MTW, me…and worse yet...my employer…who has absolutely NOTHING to do with any of this. None of you work for me or for my employer… we are all just weather enthusiasts/professionals trying to share our knowledge and observations about our crazy weather…and do it in a smart, responsible manner that takes the safety of the public as its top priority. And with that, one final ask… drop it. It does nobody any good to further this discussion.
Merry Christmas and please remember those who will battle this cold without heat or in less than desirable conditions. You might consider going to heatupstlouis.org/ to donate to help keep those in need warm this winter. And don’t forget the pets either!
We have been talking this for more than week, the likelihood of a big shot of cold late in the month of December and the possibility of some snow. And while snow tends to get the headlines, it is the cold that really should be our number one focus. Looking at the pattern historically, there is potential for this to be the coldest week before Christmas since 1989. That year, we set new record lows on three consecutive days in the week before Christmas.
Dec 21, 1989 -12
Dec 22, 1989 -16
Dec 23, 1989 -15
That was 1989! I do NOT presently expect temperatures that cold here…but…we certainly could dip to or below 0 by late next week…especially if we get some snow on the ground. With dangerous wind chills to go along with it. This is some serious cold for sure!
What about the snow? That has been the question of the week, the month, the year! Well, there are two chances… one is with a weakening system ejecting out of the southern stream in the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. Moisture is lacking with this system and the wave is being forced through a flat ridge…and shearing out. We’ve been carrying some flurries/light snow with this for a while and I’m not seeing a need to pull away from that. The odds are much better for snow over western/southwester Missouri with that system… so it will just be a matter of how quickly it will weaken.
The next system…and really “THE” system of the week is the Thursday/Friday time frame. This has ban handled 1000 different ways in the long-range models over the past week… but a trend seems to be revealing itself. If you take the big picture pattern… the position of the western ridge…and the unusual alignment of the upper flow from the Great Lakes up to Greenland…you end up with a rapidly moving, hybrid clipper system. It’s bigger than most clippers…and it sure looks cold! This is the feature that is most likely to bring a fast brush with accumulating snow. A system of this origin will have to work with what moisture it brings with it…but given the potential jet dynamics it certainly has the look of at least a light accumulating snow event somewhere in the Midwest. The heaviest snow with a clipper falls north and east of the surface low… so that’s the key spot to track. The other complicating factor with this system will be the wind…so even a light snow will cause significant impacts. And that potential is far more important to focus on than any specific number in terms of accumulations.
Now that all of that is out of the way, it’s time to remind folks about one of the unwritten rules of MTW that has been in place from the very beginning more than a decade ago. That rule is that we always extend professional courtesy to others in the St. Louis Weather Enterprise… Emergency managers, NWS forecasters, and fellow broadcasters lead the way on the “protected list.” (unless you are posting something positive.. that’s different) In the previous thread, a facebook page was called out by name and that violates this unwritten rule. As I have done with others in the past, I’ve discussed the situation offline with the individual(s) involved. And while I have no control over what any of you do or say outside of this forum, please understand that your words, may reflect back on MTW, me…and worse yet...my employer…who has absolutely NOTHING to do with any of this. None of you work for me or for my employer… we are all just weather enthusiasts/professionals trying to share our knowledge and observations about our crazy weather…and do it in a smart, responsible manner that takes the safety of the public as its top priority. And with that, one final ask… drop it. It does nobody any good to further this discussion.
Merry Christmas and please remember those who will battle this cold without heat or in less than desirable conditions. You might consider going to heatupstlouis.org/ to donate to help keep those in need warm this winter. And don’t forget the pets either!
