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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 22, 2023 17:45:57 GMT -6
I am still surprised to see a watch for St.Charles county, I feel like 3 inches will be the max at best here, but I know others have said that the models seem to be hugging the snow band a bit south compared to what may happen. Yes - I am quite worried we won't be able to join in on the fun- Hoping for North jog.... Some more phasing with the northern stream would solve our problems. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 22, 2023 18:08:03 GMT -6
I see no issue with the current track  . |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 22, 2023 18:11:29 GMT -6
No real changes on 18z euro.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 22, 2023 18:21:49 GMT -6
St Charles county ALWAYS gets the big ones, lol. They issued a watch for that area for a reason. I think you guys are good to go.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 22, 2023 18:29:40 GMT -6
Is it me or does it Seem the 21z sref had a decent shift NW
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 22, 2023 18:32:24 GMT -6
Looks like the surface low is nw by 50 miles or so on the 21z sref
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Post by TK on Jan 22, 2023 18:33:05 GMT -6
St Charles county ALWAYS gets the big ones, lol. They issued a watch for that area for a reason. I think you guys are good to go. LOL...Yay - That's what Friv always says also....If we get hammered that means we ALL get hammered this storm.... |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 22, 2023 18:38:27 GMT -6
I do like the SREFs placement of the heavy snow band You can argue it could even be sightly NW of that  |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 22, 2023 19:12:33 GMT -6
I do like the SREFs placement of the heavy snow band You can argue it could even be sightly NW of that It better be...🤞 🤣 |
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Post by TK on Jan 22, 2023 20:29:19 GMT -6
Crickets.....
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 22, 2023 20:29:20 GMT -6
NAM is gonna be a banger
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 22, 2023 20:31:28 GMT -6
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 22, 2023 20:32:43 GMT -6
Looks like the Nam Phases the northern stream, pulling the system slightly nw, very nice.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 22, 2023 20:35:10 GMT -6
Noticeable tick north on the NAM...about 25-30nmi or so.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 22, 2023 20:37:47 GMT -6
I like start to the 0z suite of models , NAM is beautiful
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Post by landscaper on Jan 22, 2023 20:38:32 GMT -6
NAM is nearly perfect for the metro looks like it came north a little bit more
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Post by amstilost on Jan 22, 2023 20:38:46 GMT -6
Great start to 0z models.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 22, 2023 20:38:59 GMT -6
Yes NAM Would get that 4 to 8 line up to troy to Montgomery city, with the metro in the band
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 22, 2023 20:40:17 GMT -6
NAM is the definition of a 44 crusher
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Post by RyanD on Jan 22, 2023 20:40:22 GMT -6
NAM looks great. Looks good for everyone. A nice subtle shift NW which is to be expected. I think I'm in a good spot at the moment in Waterloo if the snowfall maxima is correct on the 00z NAM.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 22, 2023 20:42:22 GMT -6
well... that's impressive.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 22, 2023 20:44:11 GMT -6
Gonna be fun
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Post by jeepers on Jan 22, 2023 20:45:09 GMT -6
Let’s do this!
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 22, 2023 20:45:36 GMT -6
Couple MB deeper with the surface low. 500mb closes off to 534dm. Verbatim the key features are actually are a bit too far north for I-44 corridor. Interesting run no doubt, but need to see if the more reliable global models have any hints of a northward increment and deeper cyclone.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 22, 2023 20:46:04 GMT -6
Someone else noted earlier, models are showing a second little piece of energy Thursday night into Friday morning. The NAM/Euro/ GFS all show light snow maybe .5-1” in the area
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 22, 2023 20:46:49 GMT -6
NAM has an inch of QPF up 44, entirely snow
Apply whatever ratio you want, but that's a lot of snow
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 22, 2023 20:47:06 GMT -6
4-8 from St.Louis south maybe too low if the Nam is correct
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 22, 2023 20:49:08 GMT -6
NAM has an inch of QPF up 44, entirely snow Apply whatever ratio you want, but that's a lot of snow Yeah, even taking the standard NAM QPF deduction that's still a solid warning criteria event. |
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Post by stegenwx on Jan 22, 2023 20:51:09 GMT -6
The NW trend is very real. Getting a tick nervous down south here.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 22, 2023 20:56:40 GMT -6
The NW trend is very real. Getting a tick nervous down south here. Let’s see it from somewhere besides the nam/gfs first. Some foreign support would make the nam more believable. |
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