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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 22, 2023 15:36:59 GMT -6
The nam has the h5 low track using wind vectors as the center tracking just NW of STL. Altho the the isobars are closed centered further SE. This same phenomenon can be seen on all of the corresponding charts(700,850,925 mb) to some degree. Maybe I'm not interpreting them properly Anyways I would expect the main band to be up 44/64 in Missouri and 64/70 in Illinois. Historically systems that close off from H5 towards the surface slowly trend tiara towards a more NW concensus track wise. I've noticed that the circulation centers are displaced a bit left of the height centers on most models. One thing is for sure, the stacked structure that the GFS and GEM was showing is long gone. This is a textbook winter storm setup for our region. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 22, 2023 15:37:52 GMT -6
Ya I'm definitely thinking 1-3 north of that watch. Hoping for that to change. And it still could. Troy looks to be right at the cut off between 3-4ish. Maybe less. Possible...but selling it short, IMO Ya, I'm trying to not push the higher amounts for my area. Hoping for a change. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 22, 2023 15:40:27 GMT -6
The nam has the h5 low track using wind vectors as the center tracking just NW of STL. Altho the the isobars are closed centered further SE. This same phenomenon can be seen on all of the corresponding charts(700,850,925 mb) to some degree. Maybe I'm not interpreting them properly Anyways I would expect the main band to be up 44/64 in Missouri and 64/70 in Illinois. Historically systems that close off from H5 towards the surface slowly trend tiara towards a more NW concensus track wise. I-44 and I-64/70 is my bet as well. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 22, 2023 15:43:01 GMT -6
We have had near consensus like we have right now putting the SE 1/3rd in the main axis(Save for the nam) while still 2.5 days out and the main band ends up Along/NW of 70.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 22, 2023 15:46:03 GMT -6
Ya I'm definitely thinking 1-3 north of that watch. Hoping for that to change. And it still could. Troy looks to be right at the cut off between 3-4ish. Maybe less. Possible...but selling it short, IMO Timing is going to help a lot. Not to bring back bad memories for some but I watched 6” pile up incredibly fast back in November overnight with pretty marginal temps. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 22, 2023 15:53:22 GMT -6
Beautiful sounding off the 18z GFS There are going to be some fat hamsters flying in the defo zone  |
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Post by ComoEsJn on Jan 22, 2023 15:59:23 GMT -6
I went back and double-checked in preparation for the site change, my log-in password hasn't changed yet since 2006  |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 22, 2023 15:59:53 GMT -6
24-48 hours ago models were showing signs of the surface low weakening and now it’s showing it gradually strengthening going through Indiana. Hence, the 8-12” amounts vs. 4-8”. I still think we are closer to the 4-8 but there is definitely potential for this to come close to fruition.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 22, 2023 16:05:11 GMT -6
Possible...but selling it short, IMO Timing is going to help a lot. Not to bring back bad memories for some but I watched 6” pile up incredibly fast back in November overnight with pretty marginal temps. More like 8"+  But I guess 6 it "officially" was. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 22, 2023 16:05:31 GMT -6
GFS wants to hug the max snow to close to the surface low track
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Post by TK on Jan 22, 2023 16:06:06 GMT -6
Chris -Any chance of a further jog North where St Chuck and all of Metro could cash in on 4-8?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 22, 2023 16:06:16 GMT -6
Beautiful sounding off the 18z GFS There are going to be some fat hamsters flying in the defo zone Meager lapse rates through the DGZ though...don't see any convective potential there |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 22, 2023 16:07:28 GMT -6
NAM sounding is much better looking
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Post by TK on Jan 22, 2023 16:08:21 GMT -6
The best four corner storm I remember was the storm of 82 - which I think we will never see again....
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Post by fojginmo on Jan 22, 2023 16:12:09 GMT -6
I’m praying this does, in fact, give the metro area a decent amount of snow. I rented my apartment mainly because of the amazing view. Other than one tornado 🌪️ warning & that dusting we had not long ago it’s not gone my way. Also glad I still remember my password. That’s a rarity nowadays.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 22, 2023 16:14:11 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 22, 2023 16:17:29 GMT -6
This system is going to have a direct tropical link. GOM will be as wide open as possible  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 22, 2023 16:21:15 GMT -6
This system is going to have a direct tropical link. GOM will be as wide open as possible That's one of the big reasons I'm hedging towards the higher end potential. The weakening trend models had been showing was bunk...I bet the UK and GEM start to cave with tonight's runs |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 22, 2023 16:25:38 GMT -6
What's the wind potential with this thing? I haven't had time to look into that part of it. At work for 12 hrs into Monday morning.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 22, 2023 16:27:40 GMT -6
hope you folks get the bag. most I've seen in COS with one storm this season has been 3 inches. The rest have been windblown, downslope garbage.
case in point ^
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Post by Sparkman - Wildwood, Mo on Jan 22, 2023 16:32:11 GMT -6
Hello All - excited to see a classic storm coming. I commute from the Lake to Jeff City during the week and back in Stl for the weekends. Needless to say the storm week before last caught me by surprise - roads were nearly impassable even in a 4x4 Jeep. My question is about timing and impacts down that way as I may just stay in Jeff city Tuesday night instead of driving back to the Lake. Any guidance is appreciated.
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Post by prdmom9701 on Jan 22, 2023 16:37:05 GMT -6
Been here since 2013. My last post was almost exactly 4 years ago. Appreciate all of you that teach me much by reading your posts. I’ll continue to quietly lurk and learn and offer IMBY totals when they’re worth reporting. (I’m hoping this might be the one!)
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Post by dschreib on Jan 22, 2023 16:40:56 GMT -6
What's the wind potential with this thing? I haven't had time to look into that part of it. At work for 12 hrs into Monday morning. Not really a factor. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 22, 2023 16:44:35 GMT -6
Nice write up on Twitter Chris
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Post by Jeffmw on Jan 22, 2023 17:24:47 GMT -6
Just watched the weather on that other channel that airs the Quantum Leap Series. They had number for the metro 1-3 inches
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 22, 2023 17:31:27 GMT -6
Just watched the weather on that other channel that airs the Quantum Leap Series. They had number for the metro 1-3 inches There will likely be large differences in amounts between the northern and southern metro. 1-3 sounds good for along and north of 70. |
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Post by REB on Jan 22, 2023 17:32:11 GMT -6
hope you folks get the bag. most I've seen in COS with one storm this season has been 3 inches. The rest have been windblown, downslope garbage. case in point ^ Congrats on your engagement! |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 22, 2023 17:35:56 GMT -6
I am still surprised to see a watch for St.Charles county, I feel like 3 inches will be the max at best here, but I know others have said that the models seem to be hugging the snow band a bit south compared to what may happen.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 22, 2023 17:36:27 GMT -6
hope you folks get the bag. most I've seen in COS with one storm this season has been 3 inches. The rest have been windblown, downslope garbage. case in point ^ Congrats on your engagement! Thanks! The time to adult is here... |
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Post by TK on Jan 22, 2023 17:37:45 GMT -6
I am still surprised to see a watch for St.Charles county, I feel like 3 inches will be the max at best here, but I know others have said that the models seem to be hugging the snow band a bit south compared to what may happen. Yes - I am quite worried we won't be able to join in on the fun- Hoping for North jog.... |
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