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Post by bdgwx on Jan 23, 2023 8:07:16 GMT -6
The 7Z NBM puts the axis of heaviest of snow parallel to I-44 but south of it and the metro area. Generally there is about 3-4" for the metro area. i.imgur.com/USR8NaK.png |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 23, 2023 8:08:27 GMT -6
9z SREF has mean of 5" for BLV and 5.2 for the airport. Very solid.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 23, 2023 8:10:13 GMT -6
NAM looks like it's going to be north.
EDIT....or not.
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 23, 2023 8:13:05 GMT -6
Hope it’s cold enough to allow accumulation of snow and no melting!
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Post by dschreib on Jan 23, 2023 8:15:44 GMT -6
I'm fine with accumulating snow on the grass, and slushy snow that's easily plowable on the roads...at temps where the chemicals can work. I think the timing of this should allow MODOT/IDOT to get ahead of it.......should.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 23, 2023 8:22:37 GMT -6
Well, all the models are holding true to their own.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 23, 2023 8:23:38 GMT -6
Nam has snow
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 23, 2023 8:29:06 GMT -6
Hi-res really gets the bulk of it up here. That would be an area wide 4-8" and everyone would be happy.
If you take 80% of the snowfall at 10:1 then everybody gets at least 4 and most get 6-7.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 23, 2023 8:32:17 GMT -6
The NAM may be 5 km or so north of the 0Z cycle even. And it places the axis of heaviest snow just to the right of the 850mb low track which is obviously unusual.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 23, 2023 8:32:24 GMT -6
Hi Res NAM almost puts a main 7 to 8 inch band right through the metro
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 23, 2023 8:35:25 GMT -6
Thinking quick thumping of snow on the periphery of the impacted area, and am starting to think the periphery could transition to a drizzly situation, but areas near and immediately within the proximity of the mid and upper level lows will see heavy snow for several hours critical time of day allowing for accums. Overall still thinking moderate impact. A classic system.
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Post by stegenwx on Jan 23, 2023 8:36:53 GMT -6
Thinking quick thumping of snow on the periphery of the impacted area, and am starting to think the periphery could transition to a drizzly situation, but areas near and immediately left of the upper level lows will see heavy snow for several hours critical time of day allowing for accums. Overall still thinking moderate impact. A classic system. And where do you see that setting up? |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 23, 2023 8:37:57 GMT -6
 FV3 Wednesday at sunrise |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 23, 2023 8:39:06 GMT -6
Lol
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 23, 2023 8:43:41 GMT -6
FV3 dominates. Just buries us haha. Drops about .7 in 6 hours from 3 to 9 AM through the heart of the metro
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 23, 2023 8:44:21 GMT -6
Thinking quick thumping of snow on the periphery of the impacted area, and am starting to think the periphery could transition to a drizzly situation, but areas near and immediately left of the upper level lows will see heavy snow for several hours critical time of day allowing for accums. Overall still thinking moderate impact. A classic system. And where do you see that setting up? Northwest edge of metro....areas like troy, warrenton, possibly wentzville and ofallon, but obviously more west, more likely. |
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 23, 2023 8:49:27 GMT -6
I'm fine with accumulating snow on the grass, and slushy snow that's easily plowable on the roads...at temps where the chemicals can work. I think the timing of this should allow MODOT/IDOT to get ahead of it.......should. It’s actually horrible timing IMO. If it was a 6pm to midnight it would be much better. This is going to put accumulating snow at rush hour. I don’t see how they or anyone keeps up with 1”/hr rates on roads or lots. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 23, 2023 8:50:39 GMT -6
Earlier extended RAP looked good, 12z HRRR was weaker and further south through 12z Wednesday
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Post by landscaper on Jan 23, 2023 8:53:24 GMT -6
NAMs look awesome, good trends so far
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Post by dschreib on Jan 23, 2023 8:54:08 GMT -6
I'm fine with accumulating snow on the grass, and slushy snow that's easily plowable on the roads...at temps where the chemicals can work. I think the timing of this should allow MODOT/IDOT to get ahead of it.......should. It’s actually horrible timing IMO. If it was a 6pm to midnight it would be much better. This is going to put accumulating snow at rush hour. I don’t see how they or anyone keeps up with 1”/hr rates on roads or lots. That's fair. I thought it might give you all a jump on whatever falls pre-rush hour...or at least IDOT/MODOT on the roads...but you know more about timing issues on this than I do.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 23, 2023 9:00:11 GMT -6
RGEM shifted south some, interesting, some go north, some go south
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edzdad
Weather Weenie
Arnold, MO (Tenbrook Road and Jeffco Blvd.)
Posts: 5 
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Post by edzdad on Jan 23, 2023 9:00:55 GMT -6
Glad I’m retired and will be watching from my window in front of the fireplace!! Worked for 30+ years in the fire service and will happily stay inside.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 23, 2023 9:02:19 GMT -6
When do we get to start talking about the thunderstorms down south robbing our moisture? I know there's probably debate on whether or not that's actually a thing. Just throwing out all of the possibilities for disappointment.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 23, 2023 9:03:58 GMT -6
Huge difference in RGEM and NAMs like 6” difference, RGEM looks like Ukmet, that’s kind of scary
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Post by landscaper on Jan 23, 2023 9:10:39 GMT -6
We would be crazy to discount the consistency of the Ukmet/GEM/RGEM and their weaker further south solution.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 23, 2023 9:12:30 GMT -6
This is what frustrating, I feel the models have been worse and worse every winter, someone mentioned on here and I agree things were much better I feel in the 2000s versus present day
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 23, 2023 9:21:59 GMT -6
12z ICON looks like a 44 crusher
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 23, 2023 9:27:55 GMT -6
This is what frustrating, I feel the models have been worse and worse every winter, someone mentioned on here and I agree things were much better I feel in the 2000s versus present day I think the problem is we have so many models that have different solutions…… Like if you go back to the November surprise Snow there were a few models that were showing 3 to 5 inches of snow but most we’re not… So pretty much with every storm a few of them are wrong |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 23, 2023 9:29:25 GMT -6
Icon looks very NAM like
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 23, 2023 9:32:12 GMT -6
I understand what you are saying showtime, things are just more complex now because of the extra models compared to years past.
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