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Post by ajd446 on Jan 23, 2023 9:47:18 GMT -6
GFS Slightly north, increased amounts to 7 to 8 in st.charles county
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 23, 2023 9:53:44 GMT -6
You have to look at the big picture features and pay much less attention to the QPF output. The QPF should catch up to the synoptic and subsynoptic set-up.
There are always going to be variations of within the QPF field.... you have to smooth through those to a certain extent. There is a feature that is worth noting and that's a band of relative minimum that has been showing up northwest of STL...so that band is worth watching.
However, the consensus of the sfc, 850 and 500vort tracks... along with the 850mb temperatures all strongly support the heaviest snow along and south of I-44 in MO and I-70 in IL. In fact, a quick look at some of the bukfit soundings for the system show a six hour window where conditions are favorable for banded precip via the release of CSI (conditional symmetric instability.)
The biggest concern will be how quickly will the rain change to snow. This being a nighttime event in late January, I'm hedging my bets that it will pretty quick.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 23, 2023 9:55:28 GMT -6
Subtle shift north for sure this morning. No more please!
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 23, 2023 10:01:21 GMT -6
the minima is looking like a warrenton, to troy, to carlinville, with locations in the metro 4 to 8, and maybe some maximized amounts of 8 plus just south of 44. Just based on what I am seeing at this moment.
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jbfestus
Weather Weenie
Festus, MO
Posts: 31 
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Post by jbfestus on Jan 23, 2023 10:03:52 GMT -6
How much snow melt will take place before streets are cold enough to support covering considering how warm our day temps have been? I assume an inch or two of loss?
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 23, 2023 10:05:44 GMT -6
Yes thats the area i was talking about with respect to a quicker end to the lift, resulting in more of a drizzly output after the accumulating snow comes to an end. I factored in a bigger area for that minima and extended to nortwest portions of stc county.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 23, 2023 10:08:19 GMT -6
How much snow melt will take place before streets are cold enough to support covering considering how warm our day temps have been? I assume an inch or two of loss? Hard to say, but probably not much. This happening at night will greatly help with initial accumulations.
As we’ve seen over and over again, warm ground temps can be overcome very easily by heavy snow rates.
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jbfestus
Weather Weenie
Festus, MO
Posts: 31
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Post by jbfestus on Jan 23, 2023 10:09:58 GMT -6
How much snow melt will take place before streets are cold enough to support covering considering how warm our day temps have been? I assume an inch or two of loss? Hard to say, but probably not much. This happening at night will greatly help with initial accumulations.
As we’ve seen over and over again, warm ground temps can be overcome very easily by heavy snow rates.
Esp if its 1'' an hour lol |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 23, 2023 10:10:44 GMT -6
RAP came in a bit north and hits all of the metro really well
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 23, 2023 10:11:41 GMT -6
How much snow melt will take place before streets are cold enough to support covering considering how warm our day temps have been? I assume an inch or two of loss? Have to look at intensity on this over ground temps. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 23, 2023 10:15:57 GMT -6
One thing I noticed in the last week or so , both events that we missed Jeff city snow 3-5” a week ago and St Joseph 3-6” on Saturday night temps were 32-33 and big heavy wet flakes, roads covered very quickly, and those systems were much weaker than the current one. Should come down very nicely/moderate to heavy for at least 6 hours
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 23, 2023 10:20:32 GMT -6
Looks like another subtle shift north of the GEFS.
It's getting close to paralleling I-44 with the heaviest snow totals
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 23, 2023 10:20:37 GMT -6
GEFS mean a tic north as well, metro looks good.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 23, 2023 10:21:41 GMT -6
Beat me to it snowstorm920
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 23, 2023 10:22:12 GMT -6
Saturday night it snowed hard for five minutes and the ground was covered… If we have good intensity we will not lose much at all
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 23, 2023 10:23:42 GMT -6
Hard to hate the look of this  |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 23, 2023 10:28:27 GMT -6
We are in the sweet spot down here in Marissa…… What could possibly go wrong lol
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Post by dschreib on Jan 23, 2023 10:44:17 GMT -6
We are in the sweet spot down here in Marissa…… What could possibly go wrong lol I think I’m up to around 600 things that have gone wrong. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 23, 2023 10:44:28 GMT -6
GFS with the 16" bullseye over Perryville lol. Obviously that is overdone, I just found it entertaining.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 23, 2023 10:45:01 GMT -6
UKMET looks like its starting to fall in line.
500 vort looks much better this run
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 23, 2023 10:45:37 GMT -6
 FV3 Wednesday at sunrise Morbidly Obese Hamsters incoming if that verifies |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 23, 2023 10:50:28 GMT -6
Ok the qpf on the ukmet is decent. But the snow map is terrible. Is it showing it all as rain? I guess? Something is odd
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 23, 2023 10:50:40 GMT -6
My gut tells me someone is going to get buried under some very intense bands, with general 3-6 amounts outside of that.
I'll ask the "36 hours out" question....any chance of thunder?
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 23, 2023 10:51:28 GMT -6
This is what frustrating, I feel the models have been worse and worse every winter, someone mentioned on here and I agree things were much better I feel in the 2000s versus present day The models have been dead on this scenario for like a week. The run to run consistency is fantastic. The days of the NGM and its horrible mass field issues are long long long gone |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 23, 2023 10:52:34 GMT -6
Ok the qpf on the ukmet is decent. But the snow map is terrible. Is it showing it all as rain? I guess? Something is odd UKMET snow map on pivotal is garbage.
Anything that's fall with a temp of 32 or below is takes as snow
Anything with a temp above freezing, it takes as rain
I really wish they would just get rid of it tbh
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 23, 2023 10:56:34 GMT -6
Ok the qpf on the ukmet is decent. But the snow map is terrible. Is it showing it all as rain? I guess? Something is odd UKMET snow map on pivotal is garbage.
Anything that's fall with a temp of 32 or below is takes as snow
Anything with a temp above freezing, it takes as rain
I really wish they would just get rid of it tbh
I was gonna just say this. After looking more closely. That is dumb. Lol |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 23, 2023 10:56:36 GMT -6
This is what frustrating, I feel the models have been worse and worse every winter, someone mentioned on here and I agree things were much better I feel in the 2000s versus present day The models have been dead on this scenario for like a week. The run to run consistency is fantastic. The days of the NGM and its horrible mass field issues are long long long gone Have to agree. The models have had the big picture stuff in good order for the most part. However, these small details are still lacking... like the impact of 1 degree difference in temperature... The near surface temps are the bugger right now... and it seems that is what is hanging up the UK. The QPF looks decent... everything else looks good. It's just that low level temperature. I think we are in good shape from what I've seen from the AM runs so far. I agree with the idea that once the heavy snow stops... we are likely to transition to drizzle and flurries...then just drizzle. But it should still be a very pretty site to wake up to Wednesday morning. It is hard to imagine STL waking up with no snow in this scenario. If we do, it may never snow again. |
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Jan 23, 2023 10:57:11 GMT -6
Good to see a lot more consensus in the model runs as we are this close to the event. Would like just a 25-50 mile jog north to seal the deal for the metro.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 23, 2023 10:57:36 GMT -6
UKmet is definitely an improvement.
Pretty good runs this morning. Don't think you can go wrong with 3-6" or 4-8". I would probably lean 3-6" ONLY because we underperform more times than overperform and compaction and some melting come sunrise will happen quite quickly.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 23, 2023 10:59:29 GMT -6
ICON precip totals map is not in yet... but the surface chart looks good as does the sim radar.
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