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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 23, 2023 11:02:02 GMT -6
On November 9, 10, and 11. High temps were: 82, 77, 60. Then around 2am on the 12th a band of snow developed. And some of us had 6-10" in under 6 hours on all surfaces. This was 90 mins into that storm. After days dramatically warmer than now the heavy snow easily overcame the warm ground  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 23, 2023 11:02:13 GMT -6
Winter storm warnings may be issued this afternoon. Where will they be. Metro? Probably. 4-8.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 23, 2023 11:02:56 GMT -6
I expect the entire watch will get converted to a warning... just my guess.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 23, 2023 11:03:27 GMT -6
Winter storm warnings may be issued this afternoon. Where will they be. Metro? Probably. 4-8. In my backyard And probably yours.  |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 23, 2023 11:04:00 GMT -6
I can see what you are all saying, it does seem as if the snowfall products are not that great but the synoptic modeling is better. I think metro is in a good spot, but I also am feeling this as a spring snow that is about gone in a day or 2. It will be pretty though
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cowboy
Wishcaster
10 miles west of rolla
Posts: 197 
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Post by cowboy on Jan 23, 2023 11:05:53 GMT -6
I expect the entire watch will get converted to a warning... just my guess. Chris when will you be putting out a map. Not rushing you just curious. Thank you |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 23, 2023 11:09:54 GMT -6
Heavy wet snow is very efficient at cooling the surface...and models are showing a crosshair signature within the DGZ which supports heavy rates and enhanced SLRs. It should pile up quick when once deeper lift moves in.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 23, 2023 11:10:27 GMT -6
I do think 3 to 6 is a good number for mby. Could be closer to 3 if subsidence sets in sooner, which i think is a strong possibility, while grenades are dropping from the sky just a few miles southeast. But depending on the track which is impossible to pin down until we see it on the nowcast tools, i could see 6 as well. I think the hilly terrain sw of st louis could see 4 to 8, and for the most part i think that range would cover 95% of the ppl se of 44 and within the metro. I still think theres a big potential for an impactful snow well south of st louis as well but im not traveling that way, and nobody lives down there. ;-)
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 23, 2023 11:11:48 GMT -6
We are in the sweet spot down here in Marissa…… What could possibly go wrong lol I think I’m up to around 600 things that have gone wrong. That one or two degree thing Chris mentioned is always in the back of my head ….. we have been burnt by that many of times |
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Post by dschreib on Jan 23, 2023 11:14:30 GMT -6
"It may never snow again."
When possibly the best winter weather forecaster in the area is so frustrated that things like this come out, you know it's been a struggle in recent years.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 23, 2023 11:15:57 GMT -6
Here you go... my hand drawn forecast.... Keep in mind this is may be tough to measure the max total if you don't get out early! It will compact quickly after sunrise.  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 23, 2023 11:47:41 GMT -6
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Post by landscaper on Jan 23, 2023 11:49:34 GMT -6
I like Chris’s map!
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Post by ComoEsJn on Jan 23, 2023 11:51:22 GMT -6
for some reason, despite my Chrome being fully updated, etc, some of the posted pics (including Chris' hand drawn map) are showing up as broken pics/links.
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Post by TK on Jan 23, 2023 11:52:15 GMT -6
Is is possible the Ukmet is factoring in the warmer temp bump of 1-2 degrees and thus the liquid qpf cutting into the snow totals?
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 23, 2023 11:52:29 GMT -6
A friend who lives in Phoenix sent a picture this morning of driving in a graupel storm. Not something they gets around there very often.
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Post by stegenwx on Jan 23, 2023 11:54:43 GMT -6
Any chance the dry slot punches this far north (Ste. Gen)?
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 23, 2023 12:05:40 GMT -6
Euro looks good trending slightly north as well
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Post by landscaper on Jan 23, 2023 12:11:19 GMT -6
The NAM is the he only model I noticed the dry slot like that, definitely possible
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 23, 2023 12:19:51 GMT -6
The dry slot is above the DGZ... so it shouldn't cut down on totals too much
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 23, 2023 12:20:31 GMT -6
Just getting a look at the models and the NAM looks FANTASTIC with a perfect benchmark track of all features. Would heavily favor the 44/70/55 corridor for the heaviest snowfall. GFS a bit SE, but close. 6-8" totals for the Metro and points SE look like a solid bet. N/W suburbs probably closer to 4-6".
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 23, 2023 12:23:22 GMT -6
920 that's a classic TSSN setup with the nose of the mid-level dry slot working up 44 and positive CAPE near the DGZ. Would like to see it closer to ~100j/kg but it shows the potential.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 23, 2023 12:24:46 GMT -6
There is higher snowfall amounts in general being shown on the 12Z ECMWF vs the 0Z cycle, but the axis of heaviest snow is still pretty far south. Perryville is in a pretty good spot according to the Euro.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 23, 2023 12:35:58 GMT -6
Nice Maximum area of QPF and therefore snow showing up over the Ozarks into the Ozark Plateau. Love how it quickly runs out of gas once it gets to the metro only yielding a couple inches factoring in compaction and other things... Maybe this will shift northeastward with time as we get closer?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 23, 2023 12:36:12 GMT -6
EC definitely notably further SE than the GFS/NAM. It has an easterly wobble between 42-48hrs that looks a little suspect to me as it's nosing into the building ridge out front despite increasing negative tilt. Either way, it tracks the SLP very close to MEM and GYB suggests the heavy band would be just SE of 44/70.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 23, 2023 12:39:54 GMT -6
Nice Maximum area of QPF and therefore snow showing up over the Ozarks into the Ozark Plateau. Love how it quickly runs out of gas once it gets to the metro only yielding a couple inches factoring in compaction and other things... Maybe this will shift northeastward with time as we get closer? A couple inches? Assuming you're talking about the EC, QPF output is 0.6-0.75" in the Metro... |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 23, 2023 12:42:06 GMT -6
I'm just looking at the data showing the total snow depth change. Which I assume is more indicative of what's actually visible on the ground.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 23, 2023 12:47:24 GMT -6
I'm just looking at the data showing the total snow depth change. Which I assume is more indicative of what's actually visible on the ground. Those charts aren't reliable with temps near/slightly above freezing as the model is "seeing" rain when it's snow. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 23, 2023 12:54:08 GMT -6
Did somebody mention the 850mb -5*C isotherm?  |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 23, 2023 13:03:50 GMT -6
That was a key to the magic chart in predicting snow
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