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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 23, 2023 15:31:35 GMT -6
RGEM has taken a step back in the right direction, northwest a few hairs pun intended. Still not as far north as most of the others however, but less south then it's 12Z run.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 23, 2023 15:33:29 GMT -6
All things consider I'm holding on to my 6-8" for most of the area along and south of I-44/I-70 (MO/IL) respectively with 8-10" in the Ozark Plateau into the southern half of the metro area. Yes, including Belleville, but it's on eastern edge of that.
Liking 8-9" at my house.  |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 23, 2023 15:45:35 GMT -6
GFS goes crush city from hours 39 to 42
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 23, 2023 15:49:23 GMT -6
Hand grenade sized flakes are back on the menu on that GFS run
Strong lift in the DGZ in the deformation zone with hardly any wind from the DGZ to the surface
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 23, 2023 15:55:18 GMT -6
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 23, 2023 15:55:30 GMT -6
Schnucks issued a 'Go to Schnucks' alert due to the snow...  |
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Post by TK on Jan 23, 2023 15:56:40 GMT -6
I'm not sold - Still worried about WAA zone and the 1-2 degree diff that could make a big difference....Hope I am dead wrong - when the UKmet caves to the other models I will be relieved....
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334 
Member is Online
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Post by bob on Jan 23, 2023 16:01:07 GMT -6
Did the GFS come more north
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 23, 2023 16:02:35 GMT -6
I'm not sold - Still worried about WAA zone and the 1-2 degree diff that could make a big difference....Hope I am dead wrong - when the UKmet caves to the other models I will be relieved.... The only reason the ukmet is like that is because it has 33 and snow show up as 33 and rain on pivotal weather. Do t worry about that |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 23, 2023 16:06:37 GMT -6
Did the GFS come more north No, the opposite. A hair south, but pretty much nit picking at this point. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 23, 2023 16:08:30 GMT -6
Think the NAM is the way to go, outside of the 12Z run today it's been pretty consistent, but we can tone down it's overblown QPF by a couple inches which still gives a solid 5-8" with 6-10" somewhere in the Ozarks to just south of St. Louis downtown.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 23, 2023 16:09:52 GMT -6
OH MY GOODNESS... If you don't want your head to pop don't look at the 21Z RAP. It's out of this world!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 23, 2023 16:10:36 GMT -6
Showing 1" to as much as 1.5" of QPF for most of the area...
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 23, 2023 16:12:09 GMT -6
Even with adjustments it's a solid 6-10" for most of the area. Almost everyone would be happy if that run verified.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 23, 2023 16:15:54 GMT -6
Very impressive run.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 23, 2023 16:18:33 GMT -6
Especially considering it's 15Z run left much to be desired... |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 23, 2023 16:19:13 GMT -6
Hopefully a sign 0Z runs will be sweet or at least maintain the course!
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 23, 2023 16:22:39 GMT -6
Several 100% areas on GFS probability of 4”+ or more right around us. I’m sure 920 is posting map as I type this  |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 23, 2023 16:24:54 GMT -6
"Kassandra" I'll never get used to naming winter storms.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 23, 2023 16:29:06 GMT -6
I still really like my 4-8. I haven't seen any new data this afternoon to change that.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 23, 2023 16:32:37 GMT -6
Yes... the RAP is eye popping... but if we want to mention the RAP, you need to mention the HRRR which is less generous.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 23, 2023 16:36:48 GMT -6
Noticeable shift north on the RAP   |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 23, 2023 16:41:46 GMT -6
That rap run lines up almost perfectly with what the NAM is trying to sell.
One thing I’ve noticed about the extended range HRRR is it is almost always to far south with features in the extended.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 23, 2023 16:41:52 GMT -6
RAP says the snow is going to melt fast. It melts off 2" in 10 hours by the end of its run.
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 23, 2023 16:41:56 GMT -6
The one thing I wish is this was happening during the day so we could enjoy the view! Hope there’s something left when we wake up Weds am! Anyone going to stay up to try and snap pics at night? Haha! Excited for our big snow!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 23, 2023 16:45:34 GMT -6
Gut says HRRR will catch up @ 0Z if not by 6Z tomorrow morning.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 23, 2023 16:45:54 GMT -6
What time you planning on waking up Wednesday... Friday morning?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 23, 2023 16:47:09 GMT -6
Hey guys...long time member and lurker, but don't post too much at all. I work in Wentzville and live in the Harvester area (right off of Dingledine...WSC knows where that is ) I work until 11:00 PM, so guess I'll be driving home in at least the beginnings of the storm! LET IT SNOW!! Wait, were we neighbors? Lol |
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mrbogs
Weather Weenie
Posts: 19
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Post by mrbogs on Jan 23, 2023 17:04:06 GMT -6
Hey guys...long time member and lurker, but don't post too much at all. I work in Wentzville and live in the Harvester area (right off of Dingledine...WSC knows where that is ) I work until 11:00 PM, so guess I'll be driving home in at least the beginnings of the storm! LET IT SNOW!! Wait, were we neighbors? Lol Yep! |
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bfsmith81
Wishcaster
Edwardsville, IL
Posts: 150
Snowfall Events: Winter of 2023-2024:
01/05/24-1/06/24: 2.5" (Melted almost immediately)
01/12/24-1/13/24: 0.25"
01/15/24: 0.75"
01/18/24-01/19/24: 0.5"
02/16/24: 4.25"
Winter of 2023-2024 Total So Far: 8.25"
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Post by bfsmith81 on Jan 23, 2023 17:11:09 GMT -6
GFS goes crush city from hours 39 to 42 Yeah 3am to 7am looks to be absolutely bonkers. I'm probably going to wake up early and might set my outdoor security camera to record overnight to capture that, turn it into a time lapse. |
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