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Post by foxrox on Jan 23, 2023 17:12:22 GMT -6
I love getting up in the middle of the night and go outside. Its so quiet and peaceful The one thing I wish is this was happening during the day so we could enjoy the view! Hope there’s something left when we wake up Weds am! Anyone going to stay up to try and snap pics at night? Haha! Excited for our big snow! |
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 23, 2023 17:32:17 GMT -6
I asked my dear husband if he’d go outside and watch it come in and maybe sit in it for a few min and he said go right ahead!
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 23, 2023 17:33:52 GMT -6
Not all of us will be able to “wake up” Wednesday morning to a beautiful scenery of snow stuck to everything…….some of us will be out in it all night long just waiting to be able to go back home to get some ZZZZZZ’s. 😂😂
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 23, 2023 17:36:14 GMT -6
I still feel like 1:7 is fairly low with low 30's during nighttime. I think 9 or 10 would be closer. I'd say ratios will end up somewhere between 8-10:1 on average...maybe as high as 12:1 with favorable dendritic growth during the stronger forcing. This will definitely be a wet, heavy snow and I'd say isolated power outages are possible with winds gusting to 20mph+ as the storm lifts out. 8-10 to 1 is what I was thinkng too for SLRs. |
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bfsmith81
Wishcaster
Edwardsville, IL
Posts: 150 
Snowfall Events: Winter of 2023-2024:
01/05/24-1/06/24: 2.5" (Melted almost immediately)
01/12/24-1/13/24: 0.25"
01/15/24: 0.75"
01/18/24-01/19/24: 0.5"
02/16/24: 4.25"
Winter of 2023-2024 Total So Far: 8.25"
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Post by bfsmith81 on Jan 23, 2023 17:40:30 GMT -6
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Post by fojginmo on Jan 23, 2023 17:45:22 GMT -6
That does it. I’m staying up all night tomorrow. Not going to bed until it’s done. Will go down to street level & watch it fly!!❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️ ⛄️⛄️⛄️
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 23, 2023 17:49:11 GMT -6
It’s currently bringing snow to parts of the Arizona desert |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 23, 2023 18:19:16 GMT -6
21z SREFs are juiced up
They have the heaviest snow band running across the NW counties and the surface low passing through Perryville
I'm sure that's overdone, but dang
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luvhockey
Junior Forecaster
Arnold MO 1/2 mile from the Meramec Mississippi confluence
Posts: 455 
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Post by luvhockey on Jan 23, 2023 18:23:52 GMT -6
I asked my dear husband if he’d go outside and watch it come in and maybe sit in it for a few min and he said go right ahead! Mine is about the same. im sure I’ll be up multiple times to go outside, measure, clear off the table and measure again. With the heaviness and compaction it’s the only way to get an accurate measurement. I’m off Wed, hubby is going to WFH, 2 teacher kids will be off, one of their friends staying here on leave from army (Germany), other son works at 4am. He’s the one this mom will worry about getting out. |
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Post by let it snow11 on Jan 23, 2023 18:29:23 GMT -6
As I sit here waiting on 18z updates... I am reminded how when they first started running them, the 06/18z runs were notoriously aweful... to the point of being useless. As a person who was a huge "dont trust off model run" guy... I must say they have come a looooooooong way... to the point that there is no appreciable difference in quality IMO. That is a place the science has come a long way. Shows how far behind I've fallen, from hearing you guys say that back in the day, I still thought it was the case! 🤣 |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 23, 2023 18:40:14 GMT -6
I was wondering when the hrrrrrr was going to be brought up, lol. I saw one run where it was way south.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 23, 2023 18:41:26 GMT -6
SREF plumes looking good north of St. Louis as well now. This thing is de-cloaking seems to be blowing up more as we get closer. That's good so far.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 23, 2023 18:43:36 GMT -6
18Z EURO adjusting a bit northwest a bit too, but nothing drastic.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 23, 2023 18:43:56 GMT -6
21z SREFs are juiced up They have the heaviest snow band running across the NW counties and the surface low passing through Perryville I'm sure that's overdone, but dang Models are trending towards more phasing with the N stream which is pulling the storm slowly NW. The 18z EC looks solid for the Metro with a subtle NW shift and a stronger/deeper system. I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit more northward adjustment with the next few runs. The good news is what 920 had mentioned earlier...this storm is digging into far N MX and S TX and it will be tough to gain enough latitude for an unfavorable track despite the strong negative tilt. It's not your typical La Junta/panhandle low setup...the storm is going to lift pretty well NNE up the MS river across the Ohio River confluence. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 23, 2023 18:44:51 GMT -6
SREF continues to creep northward and increase totals. Here's probability of greater than 4"  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 23, 2023 18:45:45 GMT -6
Egh, this NW crawl is making me nervous.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 23, 2023 18:47:03 GMT -6
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 23, 2023 18:48:54 GMT -6
WAM
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 23, 2023 18:50:30 GMT -6
Keep creeping it north all the way to Cook County please and thank you!
Sref mean is now the northern most outlier from a surface low perspective.
Wouldn’t worry about it if I was in the southern counties.
It pulled this with the Christmas EVE EVE storm as well only to fall in line.
Also worth noting there is a northwest cluster and a southeast cluster on the sref plumes. So the average is reflecting a bimodal distribution. Makes it less useful in my opinion.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 23, 2023 18:56:05 GMT -6
Keep creeping it north all the way to Cook County please and thank you! Sref mean is now the northern most outlier. Wouldn’t worry about it if I was in the southern counties. It pulled this with the Christmas EVE EVE storm as well only to fall in line. It's going to be a close call for Chitown...with the 850mb low tracking from KIND to KDET you're really riding the edge. I could see it sneaking just far enough N to put you closer to warning level snow though...assuming 6" is the criteria for CHI which it may not be. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 23, 2023 18:59:52 GMT -6
Egh, this NW crawl is making me nervous. I wouldn't sweat it too much at this point...there's still plenty of guidance that's favorable for your area. Let's see how the next couple runs bring it out. I feel better about our odds for 6"+ up here on the N/NW side today and for the Metro as a whole. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 23, 2023 19:07:50 GMT -6
In brief unrelated news we'll get to see the new setting of the 'Doomsday Clock' from the Atomic Board of Scientist tomorrow. I'm thinking it will creep closer to midnight from 100 seconds to maybe 90 to 75 seconds from 'midnight' or at best remain the same.
Now back to the weather and the winter storm!
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 23, 2023 19:15:29 GMT -6
18z NAM BUFKIT sounding at STL after midnight showing up to 170j/kg of CAPE through the DGZ with strong lift (omega) covery the DGZ. There is also theta-e folding in the time/height cross section. Additionally the >-5C portion of the temp profile (when dendrites become "sticky") is very deep up to 750mb.
If the NAM is right, BIG IF, thunder would be likely and it would be pouring giant snow aggregates.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 23, 2023 19:16:53 GMT -6
12z GGEM control run looks very similar to the NAM but the QPF field is displaced quite a bit SE and doesn't line up with GYB well. Almost every model tracks the 700mb low just SE of STL and the 500mb low overhead. It doesn't get much more favorable than that for heavy snowfall in the Metro.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 23, 2023 19:22:04 GMT -6
During that period the region is between the cyclonically curved upstream jet and anticycloniclly curved downstream jet streak. A very favorable area, if upright convection isn't realized, for slantwise convection given the steep theta-e surfaces and unidirectional shear in the soundings. In other words, mesoscale banding.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 23, 2023 19:32:48 GMT -6
Sounds like I’m not getting any sleep tomorrow night
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 23, 2023 19:33:42 GMT -6
0Z HRRR is running. It's farther northwest. Looks like it's gonna be a solid hit
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 23, 2023 19:35:05 GMT -6
0Z HRRR seems to be having issues with precip type as well, keeping it rain for a few hours before finally flipping to snow, but it is juicier.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 23, 2023 19:36:46 GMT -6
It's ripping snow by 3AM Wednesday AM.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 23, 2023 19:39:22 GMT -6
Looks like 3-4 hours of intense snow between 2/3AM till about sunrise for the metro and points southeast before it starts pushing out.
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The one thing I wish is this was happening during the day so we could enjoy the view! Hope there’s something left when we wake up Weds am! Anyone going to stay up to try and snap pics at night? Haha! Excited for our big snow!
