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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 23, 2023 21:39:09 GMT -6
Nam continues to bring the WAA moisture here faster and faster. WAA comes in ahead of schedule as well so it could be knocking on western CWA door step right after sunset.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 23, 2023 21:42:57 GMT -6
It would make sense that the higher elevations would probably see the the highest accums with borderline temps...as long as the WAM doesn't come in down that way with a last minute NW shift.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 23, 2023 21:43:19 GMT -6
GFS is putting down 1.5” to 2” per hour rates in that defo band.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 23, 2023 21:47:49 GMT -6
Why do I get this sinking feeling that the transition to snow takes much longer than forecast and we end up waiting all night for the transition to occur, but it never happens and we end up “singing in the rain”?
Somewhat like the event years and years ago. Slam dunk snow maker but the donut hole never filled in and we wound up with just a few flakes.
Not sure why I’m worried about this…
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 23, 2023 21:52:34 GMT -6
Overall the GFS qpf band shifted slightly SE. So when the upper level low moves past us. The GFS has lift beyond anything I've ever seen on the model. Not likely to happen but that would seriously be dropping snow grenades with 4-5" in one hour.  |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 23, 2023 21:53:26 GMT -6
Why do I get this sinking feeling that the transition to snow takes much longer than forecast and we end up waiting all night for the transition to occur, but it never happens and we end up “singing in the rain”? Somewhat like the event years and years ago. Slam dunk snow maker but the donut hole never filled in and we wound up with just a few flakes. Not sure why I’m worried about this… My man we will be fine! 850’s will be below 0 all day. Once night time hits and dynamic cooling takes place with heavier precip moving in it’ll be seamless. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 23, 2023 21:53:52 GMT -6
Why do I get this sinking feeling that the transition to snow takes much longer than forecast and we end up waiting all night for the transition to occur, but it never happens and we end up “singing in the rain”? Somewhat like the event years and years ago. Slam dunk snow maker but the donut hole never filled in and we wound up with just a few flakes. Not sure why I’m worried about this… Thats not going to happen. The warm layer at the onset is razor thin. It won't be an issue |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 23, 2023 21:54:08 GMT -6
Why do I get this sinking feeling that the transition to snow takes much longer than forecast and we end up waiting all night for the transition to occur, but it never happens and we end up “singing in the rain”? Somewhat like the event years and years ago. Slam dunk snow maker but the donut hole never filled in and we wound up with just a few flakes. Not sure why I’m worried about this… I would be stunned if that's the outcome. With 850mb temps crashing to -5* and heavy snow falling, surface temps should cool effeciently. This is a pretty potent system with strong lift...dynamic cooling will help. |
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Post by mchafin on Jan 23, 2023 21:55:23 GMT -6
Why do I get this sinking feeling that the transition to snow takes much longer than forecast and we end up waiting all night for the transition to occur, but it never happens and we end up “singing in the rain”? Somewhat like the event years and years ago. Slam dunk snow maker but the donut hole never filled in and we wound up with just a few flakes. Not sure why I’m worried about this… My man we will be fine! 850’s will be below 0 all day. Once night time hits and dynamic cooling takes place with heavier precip moving in it’ll be seamless. “I guess I’m just a worrier. That’s why my friends call me whiskers.” |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 23, 2023 21:55:34 GMT -6
Mchafin just got the triple reassuring.  |
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bfsmith81
Wishcaster
Edwardsville, IL
Posts: 150 
Snowfall Events: Winter of 2023-2024:
01/05/24-1/06/24: 2.5" (Melted almost immediately)
01/12/24-1/13/24: 0.25"
01/15/24: 0.75"
01/18/24-01/19/24: 0.5"
02/16/24: 4.25"
Winter of 2023-2024 Total So Far: 8.25"
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Post by bfsmith81 on Jan 23, 2023 22:00:11 GMT -6
Overall the GFS qpf band shifted slightly SE. So when the upper level low moves past us. The GFS has lift beyond anything I've ever seen on the model. Not likely to happen but that would seriously be dropping snow grenades with 4-5" in one hour. Looks like somewhere between 3am and 6am we could be sitting under some 35-40dBz returns. I can't remember the last time I saw snow that heavy. If trends continue tomorrow I might set an alarm for 3am, but at the very least I have two outdoor security cameras with IR or full color night vision (LED floods built in) I can dump video to my 2TB on the PC, and I intend to record the whole event. |
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 23, 2023 22:03:37 GMT -6
Looks like GFS continues to support the idea of heaviest snow along and south of I-44.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 23, 2023 22:07:14 GMT -6
February 15-16, 2015, is why I’ll forever be skeptical.
Worst. Snowstorm. Ever.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 23, 2023 22:10:14 GMT -6
Here is another around St Gen, Missouri during the insane deformation zone on the GFS. That lift bisects the dgz. It's going to be snowing pancakes  |
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Post by weatherj on Jan 23, 2023 22:11:56 GMT -6
February 15-16, 2015, is why I’ll forever be skeptical. Worst. Snowstorm. Ever. That one had a wild gradient. We managed 6 inches here, but you guys to the W/SW got truly hosed. Centralia had about 1.5" less than Salem and by the time you got SW of Nashville there wasn't much more than 2 inches if that. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 23, 2023 22:17:34 GMT -6
I don't remember that 2015 event at all. I was going through some serious life stuffs and that is probably why. I found this from a news article.  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 23, 2023 22:18:38 GMT -6
00z ggem is rough for STL on north.
More of a 2-4 inch type event there.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 23, 2023 22:36:35 GMT -6
It’s been rough the entire 7 days , we’ll know in about 48hours what models will win the battle. With this storm and set up , I would be shocked if we only get 2-4”
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 23, 2023 22:38:15 GMT -6
HREF finally getting a good look at this thing Looks solid  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 23, 2023 22:43:42 GMT -6
00z Ukmet came north.
That is huge.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 23, 2023 22:45:18 GMT -6
Ukie!!!!!!!!!!!
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Post by landscaper on Jan 23, 2023 22:45:45 GMT -6
Ukmet finally caved, 24 hrs ago Stl had a .25” precipitation now it’s .80”. The only lone hold out is the GEM at this point
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Post by mchafin on Jan 23, 2023 22:46:08 GMT -6
00z Ukmet came north. That is huge. Ok ok ok. Now…I can sleep. |
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Post by stlweatherguy - Hillsboro, MO on Jan 23, 2023 22:50:13 GMT -6
This looks about as good as it can one day out!
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 23, 2023 22:50:52 GMT -6
Ukmet finally caved, 24 hrs ago Stl had a .25” precipitation now it’s .80”. The only lone hold out is the GEM at this point No disrespect to the GEM but it was consistently awful with the December 23rd storm as well |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 23, 2023 22:51:57 GMT -6
03z RAP looks great, not quite as big as 21z but very solid. HRRR really improved through out the day , it didn’t look good this morning at 12z
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 23, 2023 22:52:52 GMT -6
How far north?
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Post by landscaper on Jan 23, 2023 22:53:32 GMT -6
You are correct, it gave us a lot of false hope in that one, it was the opposite, that Storm if I remember correctly the GEM and RGEM kept holding onto the higher totals when all other models started to I cave in
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Post by landscaper on Jan 23, 2023 22:55:03 GMT -6
Into the metro, sharp cut off though past Stl county, less from st Charles county and up , it shifted a lot since last night.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 23, 2023 22:55:27 GMT -6
If I had to guess, the GEM may be suffering from its cold bias. It has accumulating snow down into the Little Rock metro.
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