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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 23, 2023 19:39:37 GMT -6
18z NAM BUFKIT sounding at STL after midnight showing up to 170j/kg of CAPE through the DGZ with strong lift (omega) covery the DGZ. There is also theta-e folding in the time/height cross section. Additionally the >-5C portion of the temp profile (when dendrites become "sticky") is very deep up to 750mb. If the NAM is right, BIG IF, thunder would be likely and it would be pouring giant snow aggregates. Had to see for myself with an eyeballed, cherry picked sounding off Accu...bingo!  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 23, 2023 19:44:11 GMT -6
Metro finishes with between .7 to .85" QPF as it wraps up by 8 to 9AM, way better then it's 18Z run and probably not high enough as the 1"+ QPF weakens as it gets into the metro area. 06Z may likely extend this into the metro area. 10:1 snow maps show 6-8" with higher amounts up to a foot in the far southern counties of the area (probably over done).
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 23, 2023 19:53:48 GMT -6
FV3-Hi Res model now running... Up to hour 20.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 23, 2023 20:11:29 GMT -6
Another banger run of the NAM coming
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 23, 2023 20:11:48 GMT -6
NAM is not budging with its solution
Another dream run
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 23, 2023 20:12:45 GMT -6
Nam is a metro crusher still
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 23, 2023 20:14:10 GMT -6
FV3 Looks solid as well a hair shift south, but actually more juicy so QPF wise it doesn't matter that much.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 23, 2023 20:18:27 GMT -6
I don't think I've ever seen the NAM this consistent for this long, and we are well within it's reliability window now.
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334 
Member is Online
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Post by bob on Jan 23, 2023 20:20:18 GMT -6
What does NAM show for snow totals
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 23, 2023 20:20:27 GMT -6
Nam has temps hitting 36 for most of the metro by 1pm Wednesday and 40 in southern Missouri.
Wake-up early and enjoy it.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 23, 2023 20:21:31 GMT -6
the winterstorm map is interesting. The southerners say confidence is increasing for winterstorm with watches extending from Carbondale, to Cape Girardeau to Poplar Bluff. A very sharp cutoff south of that line to no snow is what they are saying. I'm sure the "watched" area will turn into a WWA, but there seems to be a message for them, that there's the potential. A lot of chatter about the HRRR. Interesting that Marble Hill in Bollinger County is calling for 3 to 7 inches of snow. Their forecast is ticking upwards as well. I do believe the NW jogs that we saw on several models do make sense
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Post by foxrox on Jan 23, 2023 20:24:20 GMT -6
I remember when i was in the ANG at Lambert being on snowplow duty. We would be the ones out there plowing the runways. Not all of us will be able to “wake up” Wednesday morning to a beautiful scenery of snow stuck to everything…….some of us will be out in it all night long just waiting to be able to go back home to get some ZZZZZZ’s. 😂😂 |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 23, 2023 20:25:12 GMT -6
What does NAM show for snow totals  |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 23, 2023 20:28:49 GMT -6
Wow the GFS in the later periods has 492 thicknesses progged in early February skirting the NE section of the metro. Rivals pre-Christmas, but we may have a bare ground.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 23, 2023 20:30:39 GMT -6
Hi RES Nam is good too
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334
Member is Online
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Post by bob on Jan 23, 2023 20:30:50 GMT -6
Thanks 920 looks really good
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 23, 2023 20:51:23 GMT -6
Chris, are you going to paint Rosie's toenails and take pictures of her feet?
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Post by landscaper on Jan 23, 2023 21:00:32 GMT -6
I drove down to Springfield Mo for an afternoon meeting today then onto Rogers/Bentonville Arkansas for a meeting tomorrow morning early. I will be finishing my meeting at 11am then driving back to Stl only to get right into a salt truck/plow. Definitely the buzz down here is all about the snow, they are expected to get 6-10” as well.
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Jan 23, 2023 21:02:35 GMT -6
Chris, are you going to paint Rosie's toenails and take pictures of her feet? This made me lol. |
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Post by dschreib on Jan 23, 2023 21:05:57 GMT -6
As frustrating as it is, you have to hand it to the models. RGEM sticks to a more southern solution.
Which one blinks first?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 23, 2023 21:09:15 GMT -6
RGEM is disappointing, weaker and farther south.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 23, 2023 21:11:01 GMT -6
Chris, are you going to paint Rosie's toenails and take pictures of her feet? Im lucky if she lets me clip them lol. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 23, 2023 21:11:36 GMT -6
WRFs look decent to good though.
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Post by tedrick65 on Jan 23, 2023 21:13:07 GMT -6
There’s going to be pretty robust convection in the Gulf Coast states tomorrow night. Any concerns about that robbing moisture from the cold side of the storm? That seems to have happened a time or two over the years.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 23, 2023 21:18:08 GMT -6
ICON's out. Doesn't seem like any major shifts at first glance.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 23, 2023 21:18:41 GMT -6
You can see the convective potential on the precip maps alone on the hi res nam.
Goodness that is a great run.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 23, 2023 21:20:47 GMT -6
There’s going to be pretty robust convection in the Gulf Coast states tomorrow night. Any concerns about that robbing moisture from the cold side of the storm? That seems to have happened a time or two over the years. Hard to say...if those storms to the South can wrap into the cold sector that raises the thunder potential. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 23, 2023 21:23:58 GMT -6
I’ve never been much of a subscriber to the “convection stealing moisture” theory. I’m sure it’s possible, but I don’t think with this setup we need to be worried.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 23, 2023 21:26:27 GMT -6
I’ve never been much of a subscriber to the “convection stealing moisture” theory. I’m sure it’s possible, but I don’t think with this setup we need to be worried. It's less stealing the moisture and more about altering/disrupting the pressure patterns. By the time we get to tomorrow night, the moisture we need will already almost be here. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 23, 2023 21:35:11 GMT -6
As frustrating as it is, you have to hand it to the models. RGEM sticks to a more southern solution. Which one blinks first? My bet is that the people in Farmington, Ste. Genevieve and throughout that area, will have the most snow. I think the greatest accums will be south of St. Louis, and north of Cape G. Somewhere in there, they will be on the higher end of 4 to 8. But I still like 3 to 6 imby in st. chas county. I think once you get south of CGI, there's going to be a sharp cutoff. Of course, we have the models that come out tonight, and tomorrow, plus the verification with the satellite wv imagery, and the now casting with the radar trends tomorrow night. So a lot can change. i think for a short while, there's going to be a lot of short lived horror as we see Farmington, Ste. Genevieve, and adjacent areaas of IL getting decent radar trends, but as that low lifts, I think the entire metro will get a good thumping. I'm not as concerned about the relative minima as I was earlier today. I definitely think the WSW is well placed. Good chance that we will see a strong healthy southeast adjustment tonight. It'll be an up and down roller coaster of emotions for sure over the next 24 hours. |
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