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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Jan 24, 2023 7:46:46 GMT -6
Good to see we have arrived at step 10 of the guide  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 24, 2023 7:47:52 GMT -6
Well... the HRRR has taken a big shift to the south. I thought you said….. I know... I know... |
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Post by ComoEsJn on Jan 24, 2023 7:49:59 GMT -6
is the HRRRrrrrrrrrrrrrr on to something, or is it hitting grandma's cough medicine a little early?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 24, 2023 7:55:01 GMT -6
FV3 weaker, farther southeast as well. Here comes the correction to reality!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 24, 2023 7:55:25 GMT -6
12Z runs are gonna be painful to watch it seems
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 24, 2023 7:56:08 GMT -6
Might become a 2-5" storm in reality. It will still cover the ground but it might be time to walk back our expectations a bit.
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Post by stegenwx on Jan 24, 2023 7:56:30 GMT -6
Dry Slot very evident on the NAM. Will what has fallen melt during this lull?
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jbfestus
Weather Weenie
Festus, MO
Posts: 31 
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Post by jbfestus on Jan 24, 2023 7:58:31 GMT -6
The school I work for is trying to decide about evening events at our High School. We are in Festus. Can someone lend some input as to what time snow is expected to start? The admins are trying to decide if they should cancel this evenings Talent show that would not end until Approx 9pm.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 24, 2023 8:00:10 GMT -6
Nam shifted south also strong dry slot, this may be a couple inches at best in the metro with these trends
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2023 8:00:31 GMT -6
I like the NAM12km output...but shave off an inch or two from the totals to account for melting/compaction and shift the 6" line about 20 miles SE. It's probably generous across the far SE counties too where rain could mix in.  |
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Post by ComoEsJn on Jan 24, 2023 8:02:57 GMT -6
this is seriously happening NOW? lol. thing starts in like 12 hours!
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 24, 2023 8:04:21 GMT -6
Hour 21 of the hi-res NAM is about as close to a TSSN look as you can get.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 24, 2023 8:05:19 GMT -6
NAM actually looks quite good south of I-44/I-70 but north of that it looks depressing. RAP is going insane from Polosi, MO to Belleville though. Seems like the areas that cashed in on the November 11/12th surprise snow may be the big winners again considering all the factors.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2023 8:06:03 GMT -6
There's really no reason to think this won't produce near-warning level snowfall in the Metro...we've got a benchmark storm that's deepening as it passes and it's loaded with moisture. Let's throw the models to the side and prepare for a solid snowstorm!
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Post by Farmtown WX on Jan 24, 2023 8:09:57 GMT -6
The school I work for is trying to decide about evening events at our High School. We are in Festus. Can someone lend some input as to what time snow is expected to start? The admins are trying to decide if they should cancel this evenings Talent show that would not end until Approx 9pm. I’m with DeSoto schools and I don’t think it is supposed to start here until well after 9pm. We should be good! |
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Jan 24, 2023 8:10:07 GMT -6
I mean, did we really think this was going to go as smooth as it has gone to this point? After all, this is St. Louis weather. Chris' forecast is in reality, still on point. There is going to be a lot of variables still in play as this draws closer. Plus, we have is issue of compaction and melting during the storm that is going to impact all of our totals.
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 24, 2023 8:10:34 GMT -6
Damn you Lucy!!! 😂
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 24, 2023 8:11:52 GMT -6
Fortunately, the wiggles we've seen in some of the hires data this morning bring the more extreme solutions into line with the going forecast so there's really not much reason to worry about it at this point.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 24, 2023 8:12:48 GMT -6
The school I work for is trying to decide about evening events at our High School. We are in Festus. Can someone lend some input as to what time snow is expected to start? The admins are trying to decide if they should cancel this evenings Talent show that would not end until Approx 9pm. What is your timeframe of concern this evening. I think anything before 9pm is probably going to be fine. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 24, 2023 8:14:34 GMT -6
RAP still looks excellent.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2023 8:16:18 GMT -6
A quick look at the 12z NAM shows a subtle shift SE closer in line with the other guidance but still very solid for the metro. 500mb vort max tracks just north of the bootheel to KIND with a closed circulation overhead...about as good as it gets.
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Post by weatherj on Jan 24, 2023 8:17:36 GMT -6
A quick look at the 12z NAM shows a subtle shift SE closer in line with the other guidance but still very solid for the metro. 500mb vort max tracks just north of the bootheel to KIND with a closed circulation overhead...about as good as it gets. That COULD save the SE zones from mixing with rain if it's legit. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2023 8:20:07 GMT -6
Hour 21 of the hi-res NAM is about as close to a TSSN look as you can get. Ya just pulling some soundings real quick and they definitely have that look on the leading edge of the deformation band. |
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jbfestus
Weather Weenie
Festus, MO
Posts: 31
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Post by jbfestus on Jan 24, 2023 8:27:29 GMT -6
The school I work for is trying to decide about evening events at our High School. We are in Festus. Can someone lend some input as to what time snow is expected to start? The admins are trying to decide if they should cancel this evenings Talent show that would not end until Approx 9pm. What is your timeframe of concern this evening. I think anything before 9pm is probably going to be fine. We would have students and families leaving campus at about 9pm or shortly after. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2023 8:32:55 GMT -6
Hour 21 of the hi-res NAM is about as close to a TSSN look as you can get. Ya just pulling some soundings real quick and they definitely have that look on the leading edge of the deformation band. Yep, still steep lapse rates through the DGZ and unidirectional winds increasing with height which would promote CSI if not upright convection as JMG alluded to. |
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Post by perryville on Jan 24, 2023 8:39:49 GMT -6
I like the NAM12km output...but shave off an inch or two from the totals to account for melting/compaction and shift the 6" line about 20 miles SE. It's probably generous across the far SE counties too where rain could mix in. Double digits a possibility down where no where lives? |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2023 8:44:31 GMT -6
Possible, yes...but the melting/compaction will probably limit the double digit potential. I'm thinking 8" is going to be the upper limit with totals unless persistent banding or convection develops somewhere.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 24, 2023 8:44:46 GMT -6
13Z NWS Model blend solid as a rock when it comes to QPF placement. Clearly the case of jumping the gun a bit early with the first few models of the cycle.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 24, 2023 8:50:11 GMT -6
13Z NWS Model blend solid as a rock when it comes to QPF placement. Clearly the case of jumping the gun a bit early with the first few models of the cycle. That uses the previous cycle’s data, so it is a step behind any shifts. |
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Jan 24, 2023 8:50:17 GMT -6
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