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Post by mchafin on Jan 24, 2023 8:52:17 GMT -6
intersting observation from watching local news last night. One of the other stations was going pretty low with totals relative to the others. I suspect they may be going with “compaction” numbers? If that’s a thing. I was explaining to my fellow gym rats last night that it may very well snow 6-8” but only look like 5 or so depending on when they get up due to compaction.
Not trying to criticize anyone at all -but this could be one of those situations where Joe Q Public says, “Hey! You said 8”. There’s only 4” on my driveway!” But that 4” is heavy as heck because it’s way more cemented down. I don’t know. Fact vs opinion tends to make people a little squirrelly.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 24, 2023 8:56:01 GMT -6
intersting observation from watching local news last night. One of the other stations was going pretty low with totals relative to the others. I suspect they may be going with “compaction” numbers? If that’s a thing. I was explaining to my fellow gym rats last night that it may very well snow 6-8” but only look like 5 or so depending on when they get up due to compaction. Not trying to criticize anyone at all -but this could be one of those situations where Joe Q Public says, “Hey! You said 8”. There’s only 4” on my driveway!” But that 4” is heavy as heck because it’s way more cemented down. I don’t know. Fact vs opinion tends to make people a little squirrelly. One of many challenges we face in messaging. Forecasting compaction is a crap shoot.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 24, 2023 9:00:20 GMT -6
The 13Z NBM is little changed. The axis of heaviest snow sets up along and south of I-44. It is showing 2-5" for the metro with more to the south and less to the north. The airport is about 3".
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 24, 2023 9:04:57 GMT -6
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 24, 2023 9:04:58 GMT -6
The melting being shown on the RAP is robust. It shows the depth peaking at 3.0" at the airport by midday tomorrow and by the time it gets dark it is already down to 0.5".
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 24, 2023 9:06:24 GMT -6
intersting observation from watching local news last night. One of the other stations was going pretty low with totals relative to the others. I suspect they may be going with “compaction” numbers? If that’s a thing. I was explaining to my fellow gym rats last night that it may very well snow 6-8” but only look like 5 or so depending on when they get up due to compaction. Not trying to criticize anyone at all -but this could be one of those situations where Joe Q Public says, “Hey! You said 8”. There’s only 4” on my driveway!” But that 4” is heavy as heck because it’s way more cemented down. I don’t know. Fact vs opinion tends to make people a little squirrelly. One of many challenges we face in messaging. Forecasting compaction is a crap shoot. The good news is at daybreak the majority should be down and there won't be much compaction up until that point. Chris, I don't know how you don't drive off the road at times listening the radio shows talk about weather events. I just cringe and cringe and cringe.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 24, 2023 9:11:28 GMT -6
I have a feeling the snowfall map will end up looking like a chef's knife, with the blade pointing SW. Rain will likely eat into the snow totals on the SE once you cross the MS River. Hope I'm wrong, but I'd be surprised.
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Post by weatherj on Jan 24, 2023 9:14:52 GMT -6
I have a feeling the snowfall map will end up looking like a chef's knife, with the blade pointing SW. Rain will likely eat into the snow totals on the SE once you cross the MS River. Hope I'm wrong, but I'd be surprised. If a subtle SE shift is realized as some of the guidance suggests, that would alleviate it to a degree. It remains to be seen though of course.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 24, 2023 9:16:24 GMT -6
I have a feeling the snowfall map will end up looking like a chef's knife, with the blade pointing SW. Rain will likely eat into the snow totals on the SE once you cross the MS River. Hope I'm wrong, but I'd be surprised. If a subtle SE shift is realized some of the guidance suggests, that would alleviate it to a degree. It remains to be seen though of course. I can't say what I really think it's going to look like. This is a family forum...
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 24, 2023 9:21:49 GMT -6
To my untrained eye, the system looks north to me versus what model's showed by 30 miles or so, Im sure I am wrong and an expert would better know.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 24, 2023 9:22:32 GMT -6
Bummer model trends for sure , knew it was to good to be true
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2023 9:23:35 GMT -6
The melting being shown on the RAP is robust. It shows the depth peaking at 3.0" at the airport by midday tomorrow and by the time it gets dark it is already down to 0.5". I'd be amazed if that's the case. There should be ample cloud cover tomorrow and even SNSH potential. Dense, compacted wet snow takes a long time to melt.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 24, 2023 9:25:09 GMT -6
Bummer model trends for sure , knew it was to good to be true 6 inches is a bummer?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2023 9:25:24 GMT -6
Bummer model trends for sure , knew it was to good to be true It doesn't look any different that it did 2-3 days ago to me...y'all get sucked into very subtle shifts like it's falling apart.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 24, 2023 9:27:29 GMT -6
Long time listener first time caller. Looks like my reward for finally joining the site after years of lurking, is an ideal snow day tomorrow. A big thank you to you guys for helping me keep my credibility with my students, over the past few years, on predicting snow days! First off welcome aboard. When I "first" read this I knew what my reply was going to be. Where have you been the last 5-8 years. Then, after reading through the next 3 pages of the most recent 'lower' total outputs, I sat back getting nervous, as usual. Again, welcome to the 'crazy' house.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2023 9:27:34 GMT -6
Ya I really don’t get the negativity in here this morning. Everything still looks full steam ahead IMO.
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 24, 2023 9:29:19 GMT -6
We need the cold air back and hopefully we can get another snowstorm.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2023 9:30:05 GMT -6
Ya I really don’t get the negativity in here this morning. Everything still looks full steam ahead IMO. Seems like we go through this on the precipice of every storm, lol
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Post by dschreib on Jan 24, 2023 9:31:43 GMT -6
Yep--at this point, just sit back and watch. As John Delony would say, take those bricks out of your backpack. That said, it's amazing how different the RAP and HRRRRRRRRRRRR arrrrrrrrrrrrrre.
EDIT: The experts who do this for a living will get it right the vast majority of the time, no matter what the "models" say.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 24, 2023 9:32:57 GMT -6
I haven’t been able to look at any models I’m was basing my comments off the doom and gloom posts, yes i would be very happy with 6”
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 24, 2023 9:33:27 GMT -6
Ya I really don’t get the negativity in here this morning. Everything still looks full steam ahead IMO. Probably my fault. I mentioned the wiggle south. The next 12-18 hours are by far the worst for anxiety as you just wait for it to happen! Every small adjustment in the HRRR, RAP and other short range models can really mess with the mind. As I forecaster, there really is a point where you have to step back and just say... we are done forecasting.. this is our best shot.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2023 9:34:59 GMT -6
6-8"
LOCK IT IN
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Post by dschreib on Jan 24, 2023 9:35:29 GMT -6
Ya I really don’t get the negativity in here this morning. Everything still looks full steam ahead IMO. Probably my fault. I mentioned the wiggle south. The next 12-18 hours are by far the worst for anxiety as you just wait for it to happen! Every small adjustment in the HRRR, RAP and other short range models can really mess with the mind. As I forecaster, there really is a point where you have to step back and just say... we are done forecasting.. this is our best shot. I wouldn't say your fault. We have a history (in here). It's to be expected.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 24, 2023 9:39:19 GMT -6
My 2 cents... I think run that 6" right up 44. North of that 3-6" south 6-9"... highest across the eastern ozarks.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 24, 2023 9:43:23 GMT -6
GFS is southeast a bit
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 24, 2023 9:44:59 GMT -6
RGEM looks better accumulation-wise but mostly because it transitions to snow faster then previous runs, otherwise it would be southeast a bit as well. ICON looks solid however, but shows lower amounts likely due to the aforementioned poor handling of P-Type issues.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2023 9:45:40 GMT -6
My 2 cents... I think run that 6" right up 44. North of that 3-6" south 6-9"... highest across the eastern ozarks. Bingo
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 24, 2023 9:46:23 GMT -6
We need the cold air back and hopefully we can get another snowstorm. The cpc has a large region outlined for slight risk of heavy snow first week in feb. Also slight risk of cold temps.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 24, 2023 9:46:55 GMT -6
Overall other then waiting on the UK and EURO models the 12Z runs are a mixed bag, some a bit better, some worse, others the same. Synopsis as Chris has already said, steady as she goes.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 24, 2023 9:48:12 GMT -6
Be interesting to see what the RAP shows @ 15Z, its been creeping southward a bit a few miles each run, but there's still a couple hours of moderate to heavy snow to go when the 14Z run ended.
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