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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 28, 2023 12:44:26 GMT -6
Man is it tough trying to nail down these little systems ejecting over the cold dome.
Near surface Tds have dropped a bit Sunday night into Monday. That's a good sign.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 28, 2023 12:47:57 GMT -6
Good sign meaning precipitation or drier solution?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 28, 2023 13:03:43 GMT -6
Again, just my personal opinion, we all know you really like following it …. It’s usually nothing sustainable, it’s a short burst of colder than normal weather in winter. Most of the time it creates to much cold and suppresses any meaningful storms. Two weeks ago that all we heard was how this stretched PV or an SSW event should get things colder , in late January into mid February, unfortunately that’s not the case. It's not getting cold this coming week? News to me...
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 28, 2023 13:22:01 GMT -6
Good sign meaning precipitation or drier solution? I take it to mean drier and thats good, otherwise we were looking at a lphi event which to me is never good. Hopefully everyone in the corner would prefer snow if we were to get anything, but last i checked that wasnt to be the case.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 28, 2023 13:30:28 GMT -6
I knew a lot of ppl said it would be cold tail end of jan into feb. We should be below normal all week after today and temps will creep up toward normal by weeken. I dont recall anybody saying all of feb would be cold. That has never happened afaik.
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 28, 2023 14:32:52 GMT -6
Days are lengthening and sun is climbing!
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 28, 2023 14:54:30 GMT -6
Days are lengthening and sun is climbing! Ahh.. dalasic
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 28, 2023 15:08:15 GMT -6
My February Temperature outlook:
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 28, 2023 19:16:28 GMT -6
Again, just my personal opinion, we all know you really like following it …. It’s usually nothing sustainable, it’s a short burst of colder than normal weather in winter. Most of the time it creates to much cold and suppresses any meaningful storms. Two weeks ago that all we heard was how this stretched PV or an SSW event should get things colder , in late January into mid February, unfortunately that’s not the case. You aren’t interpreting it correctly then. It is a directional tool that correlates with a heightened risk of cold and snow east of the Rockies. That is a big area. It should not be interpreted to mean St. Charles gets a big storm. Also, this stretch did bring an end to the record warmth and there was a storm that was a near miss. Stretch events have 5-10 day impacts regionally. Major SSW with splits can have 4-6 week impacts. SSWs and stretched PV events are very helpful in disrupting entrenched weather patterns and sometimes are our only saving grace in winters. Oftentimes though, it just means a dry bone chilling cold here and lower TN valley snowstorms. They serve their purpose though like I stated above. This winter, they are the only thing to disrupt the dominant pattern. Ultimately, our sweet spot indicators are a -EPO with a neutral to slightly positive NAO and a slightly negative AO. We do our best for metro/north when southwestern IA has a good base. That usually changes the entrance point of the northern jet.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 28, 2023 19:22:08 GMT -6
You aren’t interpreting it correctly then. It is a directional tool that correlates with a heightened risk of cold and snow east of the Rockies. That is a big area. It should not be interpreted to mean St. Charles gets a big storm. Also, this stretch did bring an end to the record warmth and there was a storm that was a near miss. Stretch events have 5-10 day impacts regionally. Major SSW with splits can have 4-6 week impacts. SSWs and stretched PV events are very helpful in disrupting entrenched weather patterns and sometimes are our only saving grace in winters. Oftentimes though, it just means a dry bone chilling cold here and lower TN valley snowstorms. They serve their purpose though like I stated above. This winter, they are the only thing to disrupt the dominant pattern. Ultimately, our sweet spot indicators are a -EPO with a neutral to slightly positive NAO and a slightly negative AO. We do our best for metro/north when southwestern IA has a good base. That usually changes the entrance point of the northern jet. Agreed. This winter would have been a disaster without these strat events. The Pacific has just completely overwhelmed the pattern this season otherwise.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 28, 2023 20:43:52 GMT -6
NAM’s and HRRR still have a period of light freezing drizzle or light sleet tomorrow night into Monday morning
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 28, 2023 22:41:27 GMT -6
There does seem to be a stronger signal on tonight's runs for some freezing rain/drizzle tomorrow night.
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Post by Sparkman - Wildwood, Mo on Jan 28, 2023 23:20:05 GMT -6
My February Temperature outlook:
[br Wow. This one really caught me off guard.
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 29, 2023 5:15:50 GMT -6
Light freezing drizzle with a few snow flakes this morning. Temp now at 28° with a light glaze on patio table 5:15am Marthasville
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 29, 2023 5:28:53 GMT -6
Freezing mist and a spot flurry here and there in Ballwin. Smoking some briskets and ribs for the big games today!!
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 29, 2023 5:40:46 GMT -6
Yep, cars glazed up good this morning. Had some heavy freezing rain about 2 hrs ago. Froze to elevated surfaces pretty good up here in Troy.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 29, 2023 6:30:34 GMT -6
I was not expecting to see my cars iced up this morning and north facing driveways
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Post by landscaper on Jan 29, 2023 8:30:52 GMT -6
Most Hi Res models continue to have a period of wintry mix tonight could make for some icy roads tonight into tomorrow morning rush hour
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 29, 2023 8:45:05 GMT -6
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Post by landscaper on Jan 29, 2023 9:02:04 GMT -6
Yea, NWS has it covered good, 60% chance of wintery mix 1/2” or less, low of 20. What ever falls should stick
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 29, 2023 9:09:33 GMT -6
meh
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 29, 2023 9:23:46 GMT -6
The disturbance for tonight looks like it has a little bite looking at sattelite.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 29, 2023 11:06:47 GMT -6
15z RAP is printing out some respectable QPF for a freezing drizzle event. I wonder if we see a WWA this afternoon.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 29, 2023 11:18:27 GMT -6
Yes I bet we do , HRRR has been consistent as well, it’s very damp outside already it’s not going to take much lift to kick off precipitation. With temps on the mid 20’s whatever falls will stick especially as we go into the evening and loose daylight
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 29, 2023 12:16:50 GMT -6
The moles are already quite active. Caught one in one of my traps this morning.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 29, 2023 13:12:48 GMT -6
These events are so hard to message. The difference between a really bad commute tomorrow and a quiet AM is razor thin.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 29, 2023 13:32:17 GMT -6
There’s the WWA
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 29, 2023 13:57:18 GMT -6
There was a advisory issued!
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Post by tedrick65 on Jan 29, 2023 14:08:44 GMT -6
Is there a good handle on timing for this? My NWS forecast suggests it should be wrapped up by about 1:00 a.m. I don't have access to the short-term models right now. Is there a reasonable chance that precip lingers till daylight tomorrow?
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Post by landscaper on Jan 29, 2023 14:18:55 GMT -6
Yes some hi res models have it around until around 6am mainly light but definitely a possibility
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