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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 27, 2023 18:15:00 GMT -6
NYC has recorded a whopping 0.0” of snow this year
They are a virtual lock to set the longest snow drought in the city’s history.
The whole I-95 corridor has been in a mega snow drought this year.
About damn time lol
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Post by RyanD on Jan 27, 2023 18:26:00 GMT -6
I've really lucky here to have seen around 13" so far this winter season. I've recieved a 1/3rd of your total! I know BTRN! I feel for you bro. I've been very lucky as down here it's usually the exact opposite. No doubt you have been screwed over in recent years!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 27, 2023 18:28:28 GMT -6
NYC has recorded a whopping 0.0” of snow this year They are a virtual lock to set the longest snow drought in the city’s history. The whole I-95 corridor has been in a mega snow drought this year. About damn time lol I feel better already...
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 27, 2023 19:17:16 GMT -6
At the risk of blanketing the whole week with the words "Chance Icy Mix" I'm going to try and sharp shoot a little more than I'm comfortable with in this pattern. I'm going to focus on Sunday night/Monday morning... and late Tuesday into Wednesday AM. Quite a bit of support for the energy coming out towards Thurs/Fri to possibly impact us but who knows if that's realistic or not. A lot of models keep it to the south which makes sense. Far enough out in time that I'm willing to leave that out... for now!
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Post by amstilost on Jan 27, 2023 20:30:59 GMT -6
Updated my snow totals and I see I didn't log the 'just before Christmas' snow. I don't think it was much but every little bit helps. Is there a database anywhere to look that up? Here is a snowfall totals map from the snow on 12/22/22 from the NWS twitter page. Thank you, I will also try and look through the date of 12/22. I pretty sure I would have commented/submitted a 'report'.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 27, 2023 20:53:18 GMT -6
I didn't find an entry from me for snow totals for 12/22/22. I went with the map of 2-3 and local posters saying they had around 2" and that's what I went with.That gives me a total of 12.75" so far this season. A couple small storms could get me to the yearly average. I think it is down in 18" range these days?
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 27, 2023 21:17:06 GMT -6
I've recieved a 1/3rd of your total! I know BTRN! I feel for you bro. I've been very lucky as down here it's usually the exact opposite. No doubt you have been screwed over in recent years! Exactly. You guys always seem to have missed the snow these past few yrs. It's time for you guys. With that said, just don't hog it all this yr. 🤣
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Post by landscaper on Jan 27, 2023 22:18:06 GMT -6
RGEM/GGEM and ICON are now mostly south of the area with precipitation. We will probably see the Ukmet shift south as well.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 27, 2023 22:46:43 GMT -6
NAM 3 suggest a slick Monday morning
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 27, 2023 23:04:55 GMT -6
NAM 3 suggest a slick Monday morning Yeah... that may turn into the highest impact event of the week.... and maybe the only one. The Tds and dew point depressions are somewhat lower on other models which may preclude drizzle from reaching the ground. It will be important to track those Td trends.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 27, 2023 23:10:29 GMT -6
Just something that may sneak up on us... going to have some hungover drivers after Sunday's football
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 28, 2023 7:42:16 GMT -6
Just something that may sneak up on us... going to have some hungover drivers after Sunday's football Glad the local mets are starting to pick up on this and started talking about it this morning. There's nothing worse than a low precip, high impact event if the masses aren't ready for it.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 28, 2023 8:30:55 GMT -6
I remember a couple events like this, you really don’t see a huge amount of precipitation on the radar, it kind of just develops in southern Mo and on top of you with very light freezing drizzle or sleet . Sometimes the composite radar picks it up quicker
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 28, 2023 8:38:27 GMT -6
That’s the second run in a row the NAM has brought accumulating sleet into the metro Monday night
Focused mainly along and south of 44
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Post by landscaper on Jan 28, 2023 8:50:53 GMT -6
Yes it has a couple waves of light precipitation the first Sunday night late into Monday morning and the second Monday night into Tuesday. RGEM has the Sunday night precipitation as well
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 28, 2023 9:00:12 GMT -6
There’s none predicted for tonight into tomorrow am anymore?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 28, 2023 10:15:07 GMT -6
Pretty classic freezing drizzle sounding off the NAM for Sunday night
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Post by landscaper on Jan 28, 2023 10:18:34 GMT -6
The HRRR has precipitation along with NAMs and RGEM, globals are basically all dry
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Post by landscaper on Jan 28, 2023 10:20:56 GMT -6
0z Ukmet looked great last night, we’ll see how it does today and tonight.
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Post by snowday_lover on Jan 28, 2023 10:42:02 GMT -6
Pretty classic freezing drizzle sounding off the NAM for Sunday night Is this for the whole area or just part of it? I’m curious about south of STL…. I’m not seeing much forecasted for Sunday night but I know how that freezing drizzle can be super dangerous!
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Post by landscaper on Jan 28, 2023 11:01:21 GMT -6
South included, you guys have a couple small chances next of something wintry .
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Post by landscaper on Jan 28, 2023 11:02:39 GMT -6
Man after Friday the cold air looks to be gone for the foreseeable future, GFS has temps in the upper 50’s in mid February. If it’s not going to snow o hope it’s 60 and sunny!
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 28, 2023 11:07:00 GMT -6
But but February is gonna be cold and wintry.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 28, 2023 11:24:46 GMT -6
But but February is gonna be cold and wintry. It will be for 7-10 days after Valentine’s Day when there is another stretched PV. No major SSW or splits so we get one stretch a month and hope there is a storm. Just a bad winter.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 28, 2023 11:25:16 GMT -6
But but February is gonna be cold and wintry. Still some potential, but it is becoming less and less.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 28, 2023 11:44:43 GMT -6
It almost seems like all the PV and SSW is BS most of the time. We see it every year, certain Mets live and die by it , make big predictions on cold and stormy patters coming up and usually it doesn’t work out or if it does it’s literally a 4-5 day cold snap followed by a warm up. There are so many other factors and drivers to the weather that play such a huge part.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 28, 2023 11:45:32 GMT -6
It almost seems like all the PV and SSW is BS most of the time. We see it every year, certain Mets live and die by it , make big predictions on cold and stormy patters coming up and usually it doesn’t work out or if it does it’s literally a 4-5 day cold snap followed by a warm up. There are so many other factors and drivers to the weather that play such a huge part. The stretched PV events have delivered our only periods of interest this season…
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 28, 2023 11:48:42 GMT -6
It almost seems like all the PV and SSW is BS most of the time. We see it every year, certain Mets live and die by it , make big predictions on cold and stormy patters coming up and usually it doesn’t work out or if it does it’s literally a 4-5 day cold snap followed by a warm up. There are so many other factors and drivers to the weather that play such a huge part. The stretched PV events have delivered our only periods of interest this season… When the PV is strong we are pretty much screwed so it is a huge driver that deserves a lot of attention.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 28, 2023 12:11:58 GMT -6
Again, just my personal opinion, we all know you really like following it …. It’s usually nothing sustainable, it’s a short burst of colder than normal weather in winter. Most of the time it creates to much cold and suppresses any meaningful storms. Two weeks ago that all we heard was how this stretched PV or an SSW event should get things colder , in late January into mid February, unfortunately that’s not the case.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 28, 2023 12:15:59 GMT -6
Again, just my personal opinion, we all know you really like following it …. It’s usually nothing sustainable, it’s a short burst of colder than normal weather in winter. Most of the time it creates to much cold and suppresses any meaningful storms. Two weeks ago that all we heard was how this stretched PV or an SSW event should get things colder , in late January into mid February, unfortunately that’s not the case. You aren’t interpreting it correctly then. It is a directional tool that correlates with a heightened risk of cold and snow east of the Rockies. That is a big area. It should not be interpreted to mean St. Charles gets a big storm. Also, this stretch did bring an end to the record warmth and there was a storm that was a near miss. Stretch events have 5-10 day impacts regionally. Major SSW with splits can have 4-6 week impacts.
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