Chris's Corner - CHANGES ARE COMING AND NOT JUST IN WEATHER

El Niño sorry ha

El Niño is Spanish for…. The Niño.

There's a pretty good write somewhere about the correlation of El Nino and La Nina and snowfall reported at St. Louis.  If I get time, I'll dig it up.  I think you are correct, though sir.  In the past 6 years, I don't recall an El Nino.  The last one I recall was a west based El Nino, which I think does give us more snow, but I don't recall  when that was.  It's been my experience, though,  that our best winters are the neutral winters after El Nino. Though as others point out, the correlation is quite weak, and I know that BRTN would say this - it isn't as simple as knowing what phase we are in.   We always have to dig deeper.  There's also west based and east based El Nino which that write-up did not address.  In my mind, it's kind of like jerking a rope up and down and watching the ripple.  It takes time for weather patterns in the conus to conform. 

FWIW, the CFS depicts a major icestorm toward the end of the month, then warms things up.   Of course, there's no way of knowing. Late winter/early spring pattern becomes so chaotic, any predictability beyond 3 or 4 days is just not there.    I think we have to consider from here on out, the general pattern we are in, and prepare ourselves for a cold, rainy late winter/early spring (meteorological), and a continued lack of snow.   

I'm just hoping that the mean ridge that has plagued the ms valley retrogades to the west by the time hot season approaches, and we end up with a cooler summer.  But of course, if that happens the drought out west then, could have some impact on next winter, absent any strong pacific oscillation signal.   On the other hand, we are due for an above normal snowfall winter.

These are just random thoughts.  In a typical La Nina year, we would have expected more bouts of cold, alternating with periods of very warm.  We were warm for 30 days in the heart of winter. To me, that's reminiscent of the pineapple express patterns we experience in El Nino.  They tend to last that long, IMO. 

Broad strokes in my thoughts here. Very broad.  Our southerners have come up with a decent amount of snow - fairly close to their normal, and I certainly would expect that they will get more snow this winter - places like Farmington, Ste. Genevieve, Perryville. 

Overall I'd say this winter does not fit well with what I would have expected. But there are anomalies from time to time.  

You guys got 8"??

Chris, will these winds continue this afternoon? Asking bc i need to make a decision regarding a home project on whether to set up for it or not.

Lol

Only 20 days until meteorological spring

I can definitely see why you guys up there feel the way you do. It really seems like central IL has been in no man's land the last 5+ seasons. Granted, it's nothing to write home about just N and S of you either, but I feel like SPI to DEC and eastward to the IN border has really been hosed. A couple of the storms that got the metro good a few years ago (January 2019) always seemed to have too much dry air entrainment over central IL.

May need to keep an eye on next week for severe weather.

That’s a big ol’ trough across the west with any system(s) likely cutting

I'm sure there will be a blizzard next week and I hope Des Moines enjoys it, as they usually do with their annual blizzard. We will receive more unneeded rain. I'm so excited I could puke.

Snow in KC today, snow in Tennessee this weekend..."caught in the middle with you"

Definitely gonna need a well-timed wave coming through the N stream ahead of it or it's wagons north. I'd say 920 is right with a better risk for severe vs. winter here. The large-scale pattern does look better later in the month though with the vortex decending towards Hudson and a -EPO trying to develop.

Not just next week, but im eyeing some potential for some pretty big temp extremes across the ctry, which could lead to a big severe pattern into March. That ec ridge is not going away, but the mjo phase and the other aforementioned factors that brtn discussed trying to bring cold to the mw has me concerned. Im more concerned with severe wx in areas to our southeast, such as the oh and tn valleys, which may get targeted with multiple severe outbreaks and bc of our proximity, we should also watch how this plays out in our backyards as well. As storm systems develop over the southern plains and try to ride over that se and ec ridge, there could be some big weather makers for our region. Now my gut says we will be on the northern flank of this area, so that tells me we hv to watch for possible severe wx from time to time, but when the severe threat is suppressed into semo, ky, tn, and surrounding areas, we hv to watch for big time rains. If we can get some cold air in front of those storm systems, we cld see another possible episode of ice and wet snow with marginal temps as well, but i think the story is going to be more about the developing severe threat to our se.

It’s basically 1-3” for the metro unfortunately it’s own it’s own so far