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Post by maddogchief on Feb 6, 2023 16:16:59 GMT -6
We have had a couple of nice snows down this way, so I can't complain a whole lot about it. Having said that, it has been lacking many 60+ degree days thus far. If it is going to suck, at least give us some good stretches. And the bitter pre-Christmas cold was just uncalled for. Pretty sure your seasonal total is higher than Chicago’s. |
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Feb 6, 2023 17:24:24 GMT -6
It sure is windy. The Davis on the roof in North St. Pete recorded a 32 mph gust a short time ago.
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 6, 2023 22:05:25 GMT -6
00z GFS teasing us with marginal temp snow on Friday! Looks good haha, digital counts right. Maybe we will get something, but no reason to hold our breaths.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 7, 2023 8:19:19 GMT -6
We have had a couple of nice snows down this way, so I can't complain a whole lot about it. Having said that, it has been lacking many 60+ degree days thus far. If it is going to suck, at least give us some good stretches. And the bitter pre-Christmas cold was just uncalled for. Pretty sure your seasonal total is higher than Chicago’s. Quite possibly - 3.5" in November, 2.0" pre-Christmas, then 8.0" with this last one. |
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 7, 2023 8:28:02 GMT -6
00z GFS teasing us with marginal temp snow on Friday! Looks good haha, digital counts right. Maybe we will get something, but no reason to hold our breaths. There’s being some language introduced for Friday, but nothing too exciting. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 7, 2023 9:18:41 GMT -6
NAM goes pretty hard with that little system Friday across the southern counties
I still think that’s either a sloppy cold rain or nothing
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 7, 2023 9:38:13 GMT -6
It’s gotta get cold enough, it looks too warm! Better rain than freezing rain if no snow.
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bfsmith81
Wishcaster
Edwardsville, IL
Posts: 150 
Snowfall Events: Winter of 2023-2024:
01/05/24-1/06/24: 2.5" (Melted almost immediately)
01/12/24-1/13/24: 0.25"
01/15/24: 0.75"
01/18/24-01/19/24: 0.5"
02/16/24: 4.25"
Winter of 2023-2024 Total So Far: 8.25"
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Post by bfsmith81 on Feb 7, 2023 9:52:21 GMT -6
It’s gotta get cold enough, it looks too warm! Better rain than freezing rain if no snow. 34F to 38F throughout the duration of the event before dropping into the 20s after it moves through, yeah that's gonna be a cold rain or SUPER slushy sloppy wet snow, no accums or at best the grass gets covered with slush. NAM with its narrow band of 3-6" is a fantasy. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 7, 2023 10:05:31 GMT -6
00z GFS teasing us with marginal temp snow on Friday! Looks good haha, digital counts right. Maybe we will get something, but no reason to hold our breaths. There’s being some language introduced for Friday, but nothing too exciting. Bad language, mostly... |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 7, 2023 14:01:46 GMT -6
Upcoming storm system on Wednesday into Thursday looks to pack quite a bit of wind especially along and east of the Mississippi on Wednesday night into Thursday morning and even a conditional severe storm risk as far northwest as St. Louis (isolated damaging winds, and possible marginally severe hail) around the 10PM to 2AM Wednes-Thursday timeframe. This is along with the general 1-3" of rain expected with a maxima showing up south of I-44 and up I-55 in Illinois.
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 7, 2023 14:39:32 GMT -6
There’s being some language introduced for Friday, but nothing too exciting. Bad language, mostly... I didn’t say what kind of language it was. Lol. Just noticed that wintry mix was introduced. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 7, 2023 14:55:30 GMT -6
NAM has a 50+ knot LLJ just off the deck tomorrow night SPC has a marginal risk across the SE counties for wind  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 7, 2023 14:56:20 GMT -6
Upcoming storm system on Wednesday into Thursday looks to pack quite a bit of wind especially along and east of the Mississippi on Wednesday night into Thursday morning and even a conditional severe storm risk as far northwest as St. Louis (isolated damaging winds, and possible marginally severe hail) around the 10PM to 2AM Wednes-Thursday timeframe. This is along with the general 1-3" of rain expected with a maxima showing up south of I-44 and up I-55 in Illinois. Would agree. Seems like a good setup for one of those forced low-topped squall lines. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 7, 2023 16:29:08 GMT -6
19z NBM has gust near 50 mph in the metro  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 7, 2023 16:46:47 GMT -6
19z NBM has gust near 50 mph in the metro Nice lollipop over MBY...woot "Enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you've got" |
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 7, 2023 18:49:12 GMT -6
I’m going to talk with Joe and see if he will raise the freeze point of water to 40*F
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 7, 2023 19:41:23 GMT -6
Thanks coz, while you're at it can you see if he'll dial back the dewpoints in the Summer too?
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 7, 2023 19:45:49 GMT -6
Come on- that would just be silly
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 7, 2023 20:57:41 GMT -6
NAM 3 has pretty widespread severe wind gusts from the southern metro... south and east- Wednesday night.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 7, 2023 21:27:45 GMT -6
NAM 3 has pretty widespread severe wind gusts from the southern metro... south and east- Wednesday night. 925mb winds are cranking  |
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Post by REB on Feb 8, 2023 10:02:16 GMT -6
WAs a link posted for the consent to use pictures from here on Fox 2?
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 8, 2023 10:18:14 GMT -6
I dont know if joe will do that. It might very well go against his global warming agenda. But if you have his ear, see if you can get him to stop the madness of setting the clocks back in the fall.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 8, 2023 12:56:43 GMT -6
Euro and ggem have a big storm in the region next Thursday/Friday.
Looks like a lead wave will draw some cold air down, so there is a chance for winter weather all the way down to the metro.
Very moisture laden storm, so worth watching.
Gfs has been really bouncy, but at least has a storm (big cutter) then too.
Interesting timing as it corresponds well with the potential major SSW.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 8, 2023 13:53:53 GMT -6
Not investing time for another Rainer next week. Lol
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Post by amstilost on Feb 8, 2023 14:42:10 GMT -6
Not investing time for another Rainer next week. Lol WRT the wishy-washy GFS model, which is demoralizing to me regarding what used to be 'Top Notch US Stuff". That just doesn't seem to be the case anymore and that is demoralizing IMO. I guess the La Nina has kept us mostly too warm for winter weather (snow). It just seems so strange to me that once the cold gets here the storm train is shut off. Not suppressed, SHUT OFF. Then once it gets above snow temps, here comes the storm train again. Is there a teleconnection for that scenario? |
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 8, 2023 14:51:17 GMT -6
Not investing time for another Rainer next week. Lol WRT the wishy-washy GFS model, which is demoralizing to me regarding what used to be 'Top Notch US Stuff". That just doesn't seem to be the case anymore and that is demoralizing IMO. I guess the La Nina has kept us mostly too warm for winter weather (snow). It just seems so strange to me that once the cold gets here the storm train is shut off. Not suppressed, SHUT OFF. Then once it gets above snow temps, here comes the storm train again. Is there a teleconnection for that scenario? It’s a balancing act every year in this region between too cold and no moisture and not cold enough and ample moisture. In this area, it is rather difficult to get both in an average year. The La Niña definitely had an effect on winter to date. Not only does it disrupt the cold air flow but it also changes the jet stream. Also, due to the enhanced speed, storms have trouble maturing as well. I’ll be happy if we go ENSO neutral or even El Niño next year. |
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 8, 2023 14:51:46 GMT -6
Euro and ggem have a big storm in the region next Thursday/Friday. Looks like a lead wave will draw some cold air down, so there is a chance for winter weather all the way down to the metro. Very moisture laden storm, so worth watching. Gfs has been really bouncy, but at least has a storm (big cutter) then too. Interesting timing as it corresponds well with the potential major SSW. MJO is forecast to be moving into phase 8 at that time as well. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 8, 2023 15:26:30 GMT -6
WRT the wishy-washy GFS model, which is demoralizing to me regarding what used to be 'Top Notch US Stuff". That just doesn't seem to be the case anymore and that is demoralizing IMO. I guess the La Nina has kept us mostly too warm for winter weather (snow). It just seems so strange to me that once the cold gets here the storm train is shut off. Not suppressed, SHUT OFF. Then once it gets above snow temps, here comes the storm train again. Is there a teleconnection for that scenario? It’s a balancing act every year in this region between too cold and no moisture and not cold enough and ample moisture. In this area, it is rather difficult to get both in an average year. The La Niña definitely had an effect on winter to date. Not only does it disrupt the cold air flow but it also changes the jet stream. Also, due to the enhanced speed, storms have trouble maturing as well. I’ll be happy if we go ENSO neutral or even El Niño next year. i think that El ninos often bring the same sensible wx as what we experienced. In fact, southern mo benefits from an active southern storm track and is often marginally cold enough to lay down a 30 mile or so wide track of snow on the northern fringes. The onslaught to the pacific coast is big too with a mostly fast zonal flow across the conus. Since this describes our sensible weather this winter, I think you could say la nina is gender confused and may even identify as an el nino in terms of sensible wx. The only thing i havent seen is noreasters that we often see with el ninos. |
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 8, 2023 17:11:12 GMT -6
It’s a balancing act every year in this region between too cold and no moisture and not cold enough and ample moisture. In this area, it is rather difficult to get both in an average year. The La Niña definitely had an effect on winter to date. Not only does it disrupt the cold air flow but it also changes the jet stream. Also, due to the enhanced speed, storms have trouble maturing as well. I’ll be happy if we go ENSO neutral or even El Niño next year. i think that El ninos often bring the same sensible wx as what we experienced. In fact, southern mo benefits from an active southern storm track and is often marginally cold enough to lay down a 30 mile or so wide track of snow on the northern fringes. The onslaught to the pacific coast is big too with a mostly fast zonal flow across the conus. Since this describes our sensible weather this winter, I think you could say la nina is gender confused and may even identify as an el nino in terms of sensible wx. The only thing i havent seen is noreasters that we often see with el ninos. El Niño conditions offer an explanation to my brain and keeps my expectations managed. IMBY I think I’ve had some good winters during El Niño |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 8, 2023 17:43:42 GMT -6
Honestly, I cant remember el nino winters too much as it feels like we have been neutral or la nina since I moved back to St.Louis from columbia 6 years ago.
For some reason 1999 stands out to me as I was in Kindergarten and I seem to remember a snow Ice storm you can walk on top of several inches of packed snow.
I remember having a ton of snowdays in the Fort Zumwalt district. Either I have the wrong year or was that el nino that year.
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