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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 11, 2023 7:14:41 GMT -6
Looks like there's a 'Nice Day Watch' for Wednesday! Could be well into the 70s for highs with bright sunshine! Storm towards Day 12/13 on the 06Z GFS would end our lack of snow suffering... If only!
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 11, 2023 7:33:21 GMT -6
I saw that Bellevillewxguy, if only lol.
Not that I want 20 to 30 inches but a good 8 to 12 would actually put us near average in the northern metro with that making our 4 to 6 winter a 12 to 18 winter.
But im not holding my breath lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 11, 2023 7:58:32 GMT -6
Just two more weeks!
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Post by amstilost on Feb 11, 2023 8:41:39 GMT -6
ALL Hail the new King....GFS. It just HAS to right his time.......right?
Edit: SUre was nice to look at for 1 run, at least. Can it make it 2?
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 11, 2023 9:16:18 GMT -6
ALL Hail the new King....GFS. It just HAS to right his time.......right? Edit: SUre was nice to look at for 1 run, at least. Can it make it 2? Even a broken clock is right twice a day. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 11, 2023 11:08:32 GMT -6
Yea it’s gone lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 11, 2023 13:04:52 GMT -6
GEFS member 26 about to shock the world  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 11, 2023 14:14:07 GMT -6
So you're saying there's a chance...
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 11, 2023 14:30:58 GMT -6
Daily PV update: Things look good for a major SSW to occur around the 15th.
What the ultimate impacts are remain unknown, but the potential for great winter weather is on the table.
Looks like it will occur just in time to avoid the dreaded cold rains of April.
Increasing signs the stratospheric impacts will couple with the troposphere which is great.
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 11, 2023 15:57:19 GMT -6
Daily PV update: Things look good for a major SSW to occur around the 15th. What the ultimate impacts are remain unknown, but the potential for great winter weather is on the table. Looks like it will occur just in time to avoid the dreaded cold rains of April. Increasing signs the stratospheric impacts will couple with the troposphere which is great. This is literally our only chance. If this doesn’t happen or the PV goes somewhere else, winter was over before it started. This is literally it for this year. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 11, 2023 16:12:18 GMT -6
Radarscope full of flocks of birds and what nots all traveling north. Still saying Winter is d.o.n.e! Next several days don't see us falling lower then 50s for highs, in fact mostly upper 50s or warmer, so yeah... Not seeing it, nor feeling it. It's time for Spring!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 11, 2023 16:28:24 GMT -6
Radarscope full of flocks of birds and what nots all traveling north. Still saying Winter is d.o.n.e! Next several days don't see us falling lower then 50s for highs, in fact mostly upper 50s or warmer, so yeah... Not seeing it, nor feeling it. It's time for Spring! They did that in Boston last week and then froze to death. Not very good forecasters… |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 11, 2023 16:36:45 GMT -6
Speaking of birds, radar picked up a mass migration of snow geese leaving Carlyle Lake area Wednesday ahead of the rain.  |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 11, 2023 16:57:41 GMT -6
Yes not much on the models, hopefully the SSW does something if not donezo. Iowa and Wisconsin continue to jackpot over the next two weeks. Honestly it’s so nice out today and it really isn’t that warm. It’s amazing how good 45 feels when there’s full sun and no wind . Tomorrow should be great and as Belleville stated, Monday and Wednesday look really nice as well temps in the upper 50’ and 60’s with sun and fairly light guy wind
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 11, 2023 18:34:12 GMT -6
This is a pretty decent look around/after D10 on the GEFS...should be plenty of cold air loading up into the N tier with energy in the SW and a boundary settling to our south. Looks similar to the EPS that I mentioned yesterday.
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 11, 2023 20:50:14 GMT -6
This is a pretty decent look around/after D10 on the GEFS...should be plenty of cold air loading up into the N tier with energy in the SW and a boundary settling to our south. Looks similar to the EPS that I mentioned yesterday.
These are good looks, but let’s see if they hold. Of course, temp profiles haven’t been too big of an issue this season. They haven’t been what we want, but they haven’t necessarily been super wrong either. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 11, 2023 20:56:17 GMT -6
That seems to correlate well with the MJO heading into phase 8 around then, although the wave amplitude is forecast to wane. It's been a winter of mixed signals to say the least...let's hope the SSW event delivers the goods
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 12, 2023 8:37:12 GMT -6
Still looking like a potential severe threat Wed PM/Thurs with models showing 500j/kg+ CAPE and plenty of shear. Timing of FROPA is pretty unfavorable as per usual but there could be a nocturnal threat with a strong LLJ in place and a very mild airmass across the region. If the front slows down, it could be a pretty robust setup on Thursday around here.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 12, 2023 9:02:00 GMT -6
I agree definitely a conditional threat for severe weather, also its going to be quite a windy week this week. And as far as winter weather I dont have much hope the rest of this year and Im ready for just spring weather personally.
One thing I have noticed this winter and not sure if others feel this way but the diurnal swings, and weekly swings have been very extreme even for st.louis.
For example temps today im sure will be 60 to 65 as I feel like they almost always over achieve recently, but the fact we started 20 to 25 in most area thats a 40 plus diurnal swing.
This is not just with today this has happened frequently this winter where we would have frequent subfreezing night only to have extremely pleasant afternoons.
Also this winter has been much sunnier than usual with in my opinion much less all day cloudy days than usual in the cold season.
Not sure if its just me but I feel this winter has been unusual in those aspects as well.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 12, 2023 9:27:21 GMT -6
Other than the arctic blast in December, I wouldn't consider anything we've seen this winter extreme. Just your typical roller coaster temperature trend which is pretty standard at our latitude during winter. Overall, it's been pretty consistently mild with a lack of sustained cold air.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2023 9:32:58 GMT -6
Our winters seem to be becoming short stretches of extreme cold, with sometimes snow.
Outside those stretches, a whole lot of nothing
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 12, 2023 9:36:22 GMT -6
I know what you all are saying, seems like we are the south/Dixie alley area now essentially here, where winters are more little rock to atlanta like, versus what they used too.
My maple trees are currently flowering.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 12, 2023 9:39:26 GMT -6
Last night's EPS still shows a supportive surface pattern for an overrunning event towards D10  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 12, 2023 10:00:13 GMT -6
GEFS shows some cross-polar flow developing around the same timeframe with a lot of cold air loading up into the icebox and into the N tier. Winter looks to make a comeback after the 20th or so if these model trends hold.   |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 12, 2023 10:34:08 GMT -6
As WSC said, a major SSW event looks eminent over the next several days with a strong burst of warming/westerlies developing across the pole. The impact from this would teleconnect into early/mid March if tropospheric coupling occurs, which looks probable.   |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2023 11:08:31 GMT -6
it'll be interesting to watch and see all the cold air from the ssw go to europe, asia, or somewhere else besides here. Or it'll dive in so hard here, it'll be cold and dry. I can't wait for the long term promising outlook to turn into short term sh1t stew yet again.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 12, 2023 11:47:36 GMT -6
Lol
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 12, 2023 12:17:56 GMT -6
I see snowman is managing expectations. I hate saying it, but it is sometimes necessary.
Of course, there are quite a few signals that point to a return to winter.
That said, the overall pattern has been pretty stubborn.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2023 13:10:47 GMT -6
it is funny. How many times have we seen a good pattern on the ensembles like 10-12 days out only to see it not happen? several? many? lol
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Post by landscaper on Feb 12, 2023 13:26:40 GMT -6
I agree with Snow, a whole lot of ensemble let downs this year along with the 10-15 day fantasy GFS storms that disappear by day day 5-7
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