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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 12, 2023 13:39:05 GMT -6
All I can say is both the GEFS and EPS have been very consistent in showing a much more favorable pattern developing after the 20th for probably close to a week now. Is it a slam dunk...no way! But the potential is there. That is probably a reflection of the minor SSW event that occured early in the month, with the vortex decending equatorward towards Hudson. This next warming event could very well deliver the goods and then some...where at is the million dollar question.
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 12, 2023 14:22:58 GMT -6
All I can say is both the GEFS and EPS have been very consistent in showing a much more favorable pattern developing after the 20th for probably close to a week now. Is it a slam dunk...no way! But the potential is there. That is probably a reflection of the minor SSW event that occured early in the month, with the vortex decending equatorward towards Hudson. This next warming event could very well deliver the goods and then some...where at is the million dollar question. Don’t disagree! Just trying to keep the mood light and airy this morning. |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 12, 2023 14:37:38 GMT -6
Im just gonna go enjoy the superbowl lol.
The gfs model I really never take seriously, ukmet,then euro, then gem are my go to for longer term
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 12, 2023 14:52:15 GMT -6
Models definitely trending southeast/weaker for Thursday.
I would say the severe weather threat has decreased precipitously.
In fact, some euro ensembles bring light accumulations to the northern metro still.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2023 14:54:48 GMT -6
Models definitely trending southeast/weaker for Thursday. I would say the severe weather threat has decreased precipitously. Ya just like everything the past decade the closer we get the more crappy it looks. |
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Feb 13, 2023 8:00:59 GMT -6
I love me some cold snowy weather but these last few days have been A OK 👌
It's Really Helped My Valentines Day Sale 💘 Selling Roses 🌹 & Chocolate Covered Strawberries 🍓🍫 in below freezing temperatures is no fun at all... 🥶
If anyone needs a gift for their significant other swing on by my farmers market is LOADED 🍫🍓🌹💘 plus we got tons of Seafood And Fresh Produce! #ShopLocal
I leave Wednesday for Australia 🇦🇺 looking toasty down there!
Facebook.com/thefruitstand
14433 Manchester Rd Manchester MO 63011
Call ☎️ 636-386-5050
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 13, 2023 9:49:22 GMT -6
The weather gods say hold on to your hats several times over the next week or two.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 13, 2023 9:56:02 GMT -6
06z GEFS mean continues to show a significant overrunning storm system developing across the region towards the middle of next week with multiple waves traversing the boundary to our south.
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334 
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Post by bob on Feb 13, 2023 9:58:11 GMT -6
Beaker, what are you seeing severe weather or snow?
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 13, 2023 10:01:17 GMT -6
Beaker, what are you seeing severe weather or snow? wind, a lot of wind from storm systems |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 13, 2023 10:18:19 GMT -6
Last night's EURO run has a big 'ol ice/snow storm across the region next week. Pretty good signal for something big developing around then...
It also shows a slower FROPA this Thurs with 55-60* Tds moving in once the warm front lifts through...would probably be strong storms across the S/E counties at least if that verifies. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 13, 2023 10:30:01 GMT -6
Last night's EURO run has a big 'ol ice/snow storm across the region next week. Pretty good signal for something big developing around then...
It also shows a slower FROPA this Thurs with 55-60* Tds moving in once the warm front lifts through...would probably be strong storms across the S/E counties at least if that verifies. Definitely something brewing on the 12z ggem and gfs, but way out there. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2023 10:42:45 GMT -6
Not holding my breath on anything for next week.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 13, 2023 10:43:17 GMT -6
Beaker, what are you seeing severe weather or snow? wind, a lot of wind from storm systems Yes windy weather. The kind of wind i typically associate with March, all thanks to a very strong high pressure to our southeast, and low pressure systems traversing along cold frontal boundary in close proximity to the region. Ppl are going to want to fasten down their lawn furniture, trampolines, loose stuff, etc. Enjoy the day today. Listen to those birds. Tomorrow is different. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2023 11:20:25 GMT -6
If the system later this week trends any flatter and weaker we may have to watch for snow  |
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 13, 2023 11:58:46 GMT -6
One more snow, then spring!
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 13, 2023 12:20:40 GMT -6
I love me some cold snowy weather but these last few days have been A OK 👌 It's Really Helped My Valentines Day Sale 💘 Selling Roses 🌹 & Chocolate Covered Strawberries 🍓🍫 in below freezing temperatures is no fun at all... 🥶 If anyone needs a gift for their significant other swing on by my farmers market is LOADED 🍫🍓🌹💘 plus we got tons of Seafood And Fresh Produce! #ShopLocal I leave Wednesday for Australia 🇦🇺 looking toasty down there! Facebook.com/thefruitstand 14433 Manchester Rd Manchester MO 63011 Call ☎️ 636-386-5050 New Zealand is suffering through a post tropical cyclone. Auckland may record their lowest ever air pressure reading. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 13, 2023 12:20:51 GMT -6
Good model battle between the euro and Ukmet for the end of the week.
Definitely more spread between them this season compared to recent seasons.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2023 12:25:29 GMT -6
Good model battle between the euro and Ukmet for the end of the week. Definitely more spread between them this season compared to recent seasons. Weaker and further south is the way to go. Id put all my chips on the Ukmet |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 13, 2023 12:39:51 GMT -6
Good model battle between the euro and Ukmet for the end of the week. Definitely more spread between them this season compared to recent seasons. Weaker and further south is the way to go. Id put all my chips on the Ukmet That’s what I want. Ukmet is beautiful up here. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 13, 2023 12:53:10 GMT -6
Weaker and further south is the way to go. Id put all my chips on the Ukmet That’s what I want. Ukmet is beautiful up here. I'd put the odds of snow falling anywhere in our CWA(besides flurries) at about 5% or less.
NEXT
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 13, 2023 13:03:23 GMT -6
12z euro is loaded for next week.
Oh what I would give for temps in the low 20s, 850s at -12C and a stiff wind from the northeast for 24+ hours.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 13, 2023 13:10:20 GMT -6
Next week has my full attention...major league overrunning setup with a strong high across the N tier feeding in cold/dry air and energy loading up into the SW and ejecting out piecemeal. The consistency of the ensembles with this signal has been remarkable.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 13, 2023 13:14:34 GMT -6
Next week has my full attention...major league overrunning setup with a strong high across the N tier feeding in cold/dry air and energy loading up into the SW and ejecting out piecemeal. The consistency of the ensembles with this signal has been remarkable. Some patterns are easier for them to recognize. Perhaps, this is an example. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 13, 2023 13:19:11 GMT -6
Looking at the forecasted winds in that high wind warning to our south. Gusts to 60 mph is pretty crazy for non thunderstorm winds.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2023 13:22:10 GMT -6
Next week has my full attention...major league overrunning setup with a strong high across the N tier feeding in cold/dry air and energy loading up into the SW and ejecting out piecemeal. The consistency of the ensembles with this signal has been remarkable. I wish I shared your optimism. I’m just getting burnt out on winters around here anymore. No matter how good things look, something always seems to happen to screw up the setup. Warm air, cold air, dry air, air not dry enough, urban heat island, elevation…etc. makes my head hurt lol |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 13, 2023 13:25:34 GMT -6
Next week has my full attention...major league overrunning setup with a strong high across the N tier feeding in cold/dry air and energy loading up into the SW and ejecting out piecemeal. The consistency of the ensembles with this signal has been remarkable. Some patterns are easier for them to recognize. Perhaps, this is an example. The wavelength becomes much longer by then with a hemispheric 3 wave pattern developing. And with the vortex setting up shop near Hudson, it's hard to imagine cold air not loading up into the region as a deep trof develops across the W/Central US. That puts us right in the battle ground zone. That is a much more predictable longwave pattern than the rapid-fire spray of cut-offs which creates a lot of noise and variability. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 13, 2023 13:35:02 GMT -6
Looking at the forecasted winds in that high wind warning to our south. Gusts to 60 mph is pretty crazy for non thunderstorm winds. I doubt that verifies...925mb winds top out at 50kts and soundings show mixing level generally below that. It'll be windy for sure...but 60mph+ seems like a stretch. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 13, 2023 13:37:31 GMT -6
Next week has my full attention...major league overrunning setup with a strong high across the N tier feeding in cold/dry air and energy loading up into the SW and ejecting out piecemeal. The consistency of the ensembles with this signal has been remarkable. I wish I shared your optimism. I’m just getting burnt out on winters around here anymore. No matter how good things look, something always seems to happen to screw up the setup. Warm air, cold air, dry air, air not dry enough, urban heat island, elevation…etc. makes my head hurt lol I completely understand...being a snow fanatic in St. Louis is severe punishment at times, lol.
But the setup next week is probably the best look we've seen so far the whole season.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 13, 2023 13:57:41 GMT -6
The setup does look classic on a large scale, and models almost always underestimate the shallow cold. Having said that, we aren't being modelled near or just above freezing. We're being shown well into the 40's. Lots of ground for the boundary to cover and adjust to. My money is on a big cold rain.
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