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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 13, 2023 14:14:36 GMT -6
Wa up for tomorrow.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2023 14:22:00 GMT -6
Gust up to 50mph expected Guess I better take the flag down |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 13, 2023 15:25:19 GMT -6
Gust up to 50mph expected Guess I better take the flag down Im trying to find a flag with a light on it. Ive been looking at amazon but they dont seem to have quite what im looking for. Id like to get something by next monday. Ive tried to put in spot lights in my ground, but they get knocked over by ppl cutting through my front yard. The reason i want a light is because i want it to look sharp when i fly the flag after dark. I have enough lighting from my porch light to be able to see the stars and stripes, but it just looks like i was just too lazy to take the flag down. I want to showcase the flag. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 13, 2023 15:28:49 GMT -6
The setup does look classic on a large scale, and models almost always underestimate the shallow cold. Having said that, we aren't being modelled near or just above freezing. We're being shown well into the 40's. Lots of ground for the boundary to cover and adjust to. My money is on a big cold rain. EC had Tds well below freezing during much of the precip from what I've looked at. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 13, 2023 15:35:42 GMT -6
Gust up to 50mph expected Guess I better take the flag down Im trying to find a flag with a light on it. Ive been looking at amazon but they dont seem to have quite what im looking for. Id like to get something by next monday. Ive tried to put in spot lights in my ground, but they get knocked over by ppl cutting through my front yard. The reason i want a light is because i want it to look sharp when i fly the flag after dark. I have enough lighting from my porch light to be able to see the stars and stripes, but it just looks like i was just too lazy to take the flag down. I want to showcase the flag. I put a solar powered spot light on my flag pole with hose clamps...worked great |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 13, 2023 15:47:09 GMT -6
Definitely a chance next week but currently nothing is great on the models, basically all the frozen precipitation is north of the metro, a brief change over on the euro at the end. We need a lot bigger push with the cold air mass . Hopefully things trend better/colder over the next 7 days, but currently mostly a cold rain is being modeled.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2023 16:31:15 GMT -6
Given how everything trends weaker/flatter, south of the wintry zone is the best spot to be at this range
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Post by landscaper on Feb 13, 2023 17:50:51 GMT -6
Yes except for the last 4-5 storms that went just west of us or going west of us tomorrow and Thursday
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Post by landscaper on Feb 13, 2023 17:54:21 GMT -6
It would definitely be nice to catch one good storm this year, hopefully things trend south some
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 13, 2023 17:55:45 GMT -6
Yes except for the last 4-5 storms that went just west of us or going west of us tomorrow and Thursday This is a much different setup though...the blocking high over the top looks great at this range. |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 13, 2023 18:37:12 GMT -6
Yes definitely looks like a better HP placement and feed of cold air
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 13, 2023 19:46:40 GMT -6
Im trying to find a flag with a light on it. Ive been looking at amazon but they dont seem to have quite what im looking for. Id like to get something by next monday. Ive tried to put in spot lights in my ground, but they get knocked over by ppl cutting through my front yard. The reason i want a light is because i want it to look sharp when i fly the flag after dark. I have enough lighting from my porch light to be able to see the stars and stripes, but it just looks like i was just too lazy to take the flag down. I want to showcase the flag. I put a solar powered spot light on my flag pole with hose clamps...worked great That's kind of I'm looking at on amazon. Trouble is, for most of them, the light doesn't stay on. I have kind of an issue with a large maple and large birch tree in my front yard too providing shade. I could move the flag bracket over to my rightmost column and the solar panel might pick up more energy. I bet your flag looks sharp. Do you fly it all the time, or just on holidays? I hope it's not windy Monday. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 13, 2023 20:51:41 GMT -6
I fly it all the time but I try to lower it when high wind is a possibility. It's a 25' telescopic pole. I'll never forget the time a storm hit with 60mph+ gusts and it was bent halfway over...it's very flexible and seems to handle wind well but the flags get tattered and torn quickly in high winds.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2023 10:33:13 GMT -6
The GFS of course sucks, but next week has nothing but mild and rainy later in the week as the cold stays way north.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 14, 2023 10:49:42 GMT -6
The GFS of course sucks, but next week has nothing but mild and rainy later in the week as the cold stays way north. Boundary is through Northern Missouri/Central Illinois on the 12z ggem. Some really strong HP and dense cold air trying to leak down. I would bet the boundary ends up sagging south in future runs, but STL is probably the battleground per usual. One side will get an ice storm and the other will be 55-65 degrees. Prolific ice storm setup in the Midwest overall though. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2023 10:53:24 GMT -6
Highly likely not here. But who knows
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 14, 2023 11:16:10 GMT -6
It's still ~8 days out...the ingredients are all on the table they just have to come together!
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 14, 2023 11:40:05 GMT -6
Hate the prospect of ice. Back in the day, we got snow. Agree that not much potential for snow is being shown, and that we have some potential for ice if the cold sags. But that se ridge says, "hold my beer"
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2023 11:42:40 GMT -6
Back in the day we had ice too. Lots of it. Lol
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 14, 2023 11:46:54 GMT -6
I fully expect that system to come out flatter than what operationals are currently showing...ensemble means have the surface boundary well into AR by Tues/Wed. The GFS looks waaaaaay too amped up.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 14, 2023 11:56:54 GMT -6
Hate the prospect of ice. Back in the day, we got snow. Agree that not much potential for snow is being shown, and that we have some potential for ice if the cold sags. But that se ridge says, "hold my beer" SE ridge looks fairly subdued on the ensemble means...590dm over Cuba and 1024mb over Bermuda isn't exactly a brick wall but it does argue against suppression putting us in the battle zone between airmasses.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 14, 2023 11:56:59 GMT -6
Hopefully something changes in the next week, because currently it’s not even close on any model. GFS/GEM/Euro all have the low tracking north of us, never a good sign. Basically what is happening today and later this week and what happened the last two weeks as well.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2023 12:10:01 GMT -6
I fully expect that system to come out flatter than what operationals are currently showing...ensemble means have the surface boundary well into AR by Tues/Wed. The GFS looks waaaaaay too amped up. I think we’re squarely in the battle zone for next week. I’m 99.9999% certain the operationals are to amped up right now. The GEFS has quite a few members with big snow and ice storms. |
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 14, 2023 12:22:30 GMT -6
It’s seems the boundary layer has always trended south this winter on op models. Maybe I’m hoping too much, but the ensemble look next week is one of the best of the season.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 14, 2023 12:49:13 GMT -6
That is quite the set up.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2023 14:32:01 GMT -6
EPS has the frontal boundary for next week setting up way south of here and significantly further south than the OP run  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 14, 2023 14:47:34 GMT -6
That band of LEWPy showers out west is interesting...they are very low-topped but have to think there could be wind gust potential with those if they mix down the ~50kt winds aloft.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 14, 2023 15:24:57 GMT -6
That band of LEWPy showers out west is interesting...they are very low-topped but have to think there could be wind gust potential with those if they mix down the ~50kt winds aloft. Models especially the Hi-Res did an excellent job picking this out over a day in advanced. Impressive! |
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Post by sgdragons on Feb 14, 2023 19:07:03 GMT -6
Very bright and defined rainbow down this way this evening.   |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 15, 2023 8:55:15 GMT -6
Operationals are still all over the place next week as you'd expect. EC still banging the drum for something wintry to develop around Wednesday...GEM is more amped and slower which sloshes out the cold and the GOOFUS says "what cold" and has the storm in MN, lol
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