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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 21, 2023 16:51:07 GMT -6
I think most are just so sick of being burned from past events. We all get excited 7+ days, especially when we haven't had a "winter" storm for a month or so...and we are in the prime time for a Winter storm. Then 4-5 days out we get aggravated when models shoe movement away from our area. But like some have stated already and with almost every storm like this is. It usually trends back further northwest. Especially when you have a setup like Chris just mentioned. I'd say if what models are showing today show the the same thing on Monday-Tuesday then we can panic. If anything i love seeing all the posts again from everyone.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 21, 2023 16:54:25 GMT -6
Well here's our storm and what it's doing in Seattle today
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 21, 2023 16:58:09 GMT -6
yes and the NAM actually looks like a pretty healthy snow tonight. Possible overperformer maybe?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2023 17:00:16 GMT -6
18z gfs is loaded up with winter potential beyond this storm. Nice to see more potential. Sustained wintry pattern.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 21, 2023 17:05:48 GMT -6
I noticed that the 18 GFS looks good as well...but I'd like to see the midnight Euro's. I think the Euro has been my go-to starting quarterback this winter.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2023 17:11:15 GMT -6
I noticed that the 18 GFS looks good as well...but I'd like to see the midnight Euro's. I think the Euro has been my go-to starting quarterback this winter. Not really going out on a limb using the gold standard model as your starter lol |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 21, 2023 17:16:46 GMT -6
While us folks here in St. Louis are pretty use to the snowfall struggle, I really feel for you WSC being up near Chicago, I know in my back yard I am at 3.7 inches for the season, and lambert is near 3, but I have family in Chicago and they say they are about the same for their total, kind of weird to have Chicago and the metro st.louis area neck and neck for snowfall this deep into the season. All though what we have had in St.louis is not really unusual to this point it is for northern Illinois.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 21, 2023 17:19:02 GMT -6
I noticed that the 18 GFS looks good as well...but I'd like to see the midnight Euro's. I think the Euro has been my go-to starting quarterback this winter. Not really going out on a limb using the gold standard model as your starter lol True. I'm not going out on a limb. The Euro is very different from the GFS though, but I still think we are in a transition to a new pattern. I think my statement is more of a sign of hope that the Euro can come around tonight. |
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Post by ElburnDave on Jan 21, 2023 17:24:06 GMT -6
While us folks here in St. Louis are pretty use to the snowfall struggle, I really feel for you WSC being up near Chicago, I know in my back yard I am at 3.7 inches for the season, and lambert is near 3, but I have family in Chicago and they say they are about the same for their total, kind of weird to have Chicago and the metro st.louis area neck and neck for snowfall this deep into the season. All though what we have had in St.louis is not really unusual to this point it is for northern Illinois. 3” would be a generous estimate IMBY. Have yet to see my grass covered, nor have I been out to plow. Not good for the ol’ comp time bank! |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2023 17:28:24 GMT -6
While us folks here in St. Louis are pretty use to the snowfall struggle, I really feel for you WSC being up near Chicago, I know in my back yard I am at 3.7 inches for the season, and lambert is near 3, but I have family in Chicago and they say they are about the same for their total, kind of weird to have Chicago and the metro st.louis area neck and neck for snowfall this deep into the season. All though what we have had in St.louis is not really unusual to this point it is for northern Illinois. 3” would be a generous estimate IMBY. Have yet to see my grass covered, nor have I been out to plow. Not good for the ol’ comp time bank! 3 inches sounds right. Hoping for a February to remember like 2 years ago. I would actually enjoy 3-4 weeks of straight winter and building a snowpack more than spreading it out across 4 months. |
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Jan 21, 2023 17:32:27 GMT -6
While us folks here in St. Louis are pretty use to the snowfall struggle, I really feel for you WSC being up near Chicago, I know in my back yard I am at 3.7 inches for the season, and lambert is near 3, but I have family in Chicago and they say they are about the same for their total, kind of weird to have Chicago and the metro st.louis area neck and neck for snowfall this deep into the season. All though what we have had in St.louis is not really unusual to this point it is for northern Illinois. In North St. Pete (where the Davis on the roof lives), we have had a couple of dustings. That's it. I'd like more please. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2023 17:38:23 GMT -6
3” would be a generous estimate IMBY. Have yet to see my grass covered, nor have I been out to plow. Not good for the ol’ comp time bank! 3 inches sounds right. Hoping for a February to remember like 2 years ago. I would actually enjoy 3-4 weeks of straight winter and building a snowpack more than spreading it out across 4 months. I hope so, but February is looking iffy on the extended guidance. Plenty of time to worry about that later. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 21, 2023 17:43:51 GMT -6
Hey twocat how have you only had a couple dustings we had 2.2 with the pre Christmas storm, other the that yes it has been dustings.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2023 17:44:53 GMT -6
3 inches sounds right. Hoping for a February to remember like 2 years ago. I would actually enjoy 3-4 weeks of straight winter and building a snowpack more than spreading it out across 4 months. I hope so, but February is looking iffy on the extended guidance. Plenty of time to worry about that later. Good luck handling a strat warming event with the CFS. Eric is smart, but clearly is biased towards the torch. Just like Bastardi is crazy biased towards extreme cold. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 21, 2023 17:52:32 GMT -6
Radar does have that snowy look in southwest MO and returns are expanding a bit too. mping data indicates a change or mix to snow is underway near SGF. Time of day will play a part tonight as temps from STL to the east have already dropped into the 30s. Wet bulbing should do the rest. So I think we are on track for a little rain/snow mix tonight. I still dont expect roads to be anything but wet.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2023 17:53:35 GMT -6
I hope so, but February is looking iffy on the extended guidance. Plenty of time to worry about that later. Good luck handling a strat warming event with the CFS. Eric is smart, but clearly is biased towards the torch. Just like Bastardi is crazy biased towards extreme cold. Ya, Eric is super smart but loves to rain on the east coast snow weenies parade lol |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 21, 2023 17:55:49 GMT -6
Good luck handling a strat warming event with the CFS. Eric is smart, but clearly is biased towards the torch. Just like Bastardi is crazy biased towards extreme cold. Ya, Eric is super smart but loves to rain on the east coast snow weenies parade lol Who doesn't lol. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 21, 2023 18:01:38 GMT -6
Radar does have that snowy look in southwest MO and returns are expanding a bit too. mping data indicates a change or mix to snow is underway near SGF. Time of day will play a part tonight as temps from STL to the east have already dropped into the 30s. Wet bulbing should do the rest. So I think we are on track for a little rain/snow mix tonight. I still dont expect roads to be anything but wet. Radar looks better than I expected. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 21, 2023 18:04:56 GMT -6
So at present thoughts, what kind of impacts we thinking here Chris? Minor, moderate, Significant, or major?
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Post by landscaper on Jan 21, 2023 18:12:19 GMT -6
It would not surprise me to have one of those little light storms where we wake up tomorrow with a dusting on cars and grass and wet streets
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 21, 2023 18:24:18 GMT -6
18z Euro is finally in... and it is a smidge west. The key features are remarkable consistent.
As for this evening, I wouldn't be suprised for a little slushy dusting...not one bit. I'm working tonight and that's kind of what I've been calling for while trying to downplay any real impact other than the inconvenience of it being cold and wet.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 21, 2023 18:37:02 GMT -6
Bit colder in the lower levels as that precip moves into the metro too  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2023 19:05:42 GMT -6
18z EPS looks pretty good. Several “44 crushers” mixed in and even one or two that are NW of the metro.  |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 21, 2023 19:18:49 GMT -6
So at present thoughts, what kind of impacts we thinking here Chris? Minor, moderate, Significant, or major? Not Chris, but here is what NWS is thinking currently.  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 21, 2023 19:53:24 GMT -6
Holy smokes... just checked my morethanweather email for the first time since I posted this thread.... yikes! I have hundreds of emails from "lurkers"... or maybe a nicer term would be "quiet followers" who want to get an account. This may take a while folks. I will not close us off until I work through all the email requests... which may take until Spring  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 21, 2023 19:56:29 GMT -6
Before anyone asks... the Tuesday system is mostly ashore... but it has not been completely sampled as of this evening. The 12z observations tomorrow should have captured the vast majority of it.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 21, 2023 20:44:58 GMT -6
Well... the NAM is just a little outside of reliability range. However... I like what it is laying down!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2023 20:46:46 GMT -6
Well... the NAM is just a little outside of reliability range. However... I like what it is laying down! That’s more like it! |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 21, 2023 20:49:12 GMT -6
Well... the NAM is just a little outside of reliability range. However... I like what it is laying down! That’s more like it! Notice the snow depth chart is displace north from snowfall. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 21, 2023 20:52:25 GMT -6
NAM is gorgeous.
I don't think I've ever said that before.
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