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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2023 20:53:55 GMT -6
Notice the snow depth chart is displace north from snowfall. I see that. Curious what is driving the second band further north of the primary deformation zone? It looks like there could be a relative minimum somewhere in the region between those two features. |
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 21, 2023 20:54:40 GMT -6
NAM is gorgeous. I don't think I've ever said that before. You'll be cursing it before this is over. It's the NAM...it's inevitable. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 21, 2023 20:58:20 GMT -6
NAM is gorgeous. I don't think I've ever said that before. You'll be cursing it before this is over. It's the NAM...it's inevitable. This made me laugh way more than it probably should have. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2023 20:59:33 GMT -6
NAM is awfully good looking
Although years of experience have engrained in me to never trust the NAM this far out
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 21, 2023 21:03:03 GMT -6
NAM is awfully good looking Although years of experience have engrained in me to never trust the NAM this far out Indeed. But that doesn't make it any less purty to look at! It has a near perfect path for almost everyting. In fact... if anything.. the 500mb vort track would push the heavy snow band to the northwest of I-44. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 21, 2023 21:24:24 GMT -6
It’s always better once you get closer to a storm and you get the NAM and RGEM along with the Euro off hour runs to look at , makes it more exciting
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Post by landscaper on Jan 21, 2023 21:26:01 GMT -6
Chris, will we need to re log in at some point? I have no idea what my password is, I’ve been logged in on my phone for years
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 21, 2023 21:37:55 GMT -6
Chris, will we need to re log in at some point? I have no idea what my password is, I’ve been logged in on my phone for years I'm honestly not sure. If your device has remembered your password, then you should be ok. But I'm not 100% certain. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 21, 2023 21:40:05 GMT -6
I've been busy today so this may have already been mentioned. The 12Z UKMET is a pretty big change from the previous 0Z cycle. It actually has a closed (albeit barely) 850mb low right at the benchmark point. But, it is much weaker. It is also fighting to close the 850mb low off or elongate it further north over the metro area. Maybe that it is a hiccup. I don't know.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 21, 2023 21:52:53 GMT -6
A blend of the 12Z EPS and 12/18Z GEFS and 12Z GEPS puts the 850mb low around the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers or perhaps a tick or two south. That puts it about 40-50 km south of our benchmark. That's not too far off. Modeling can easily change by that much in 84 hours. Off course, big curveballs and busts are all to common as well. Anyway, prior to the 0Z cycle tonight I would say odds are higher for significant snow slightly to our south on this one. Let's see how the 0Z suite plays out.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2023 21:58:21 GMT -6
00z GFS looks good to me
500mb low closes off over MO again and the 850 low goes right through our wheelhouse
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 21, 2023 21:59:21 GMT -6
850mb low splits Perryville and Cape Girardeau. It doesn't get much better than that.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 21, 2023 22:00:12 GMT -6
GFS is an improvement
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Post by landscaper on Jan 21, 2023 22:01:44 GMT -6
Yes definitely a little better, another 25-50 mile shift North would be nice
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2023 22:01:49 GMT -6
Very nice run there.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 21, 2023 22:02:42 GMT -6
GFS looks great. Again ignore the snow charts for the time being, it's unlikely axis of heaviest snow falls along/south of 850mb low track.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2023 22:03:35 GMT -6
I’d be willing to bet the models are being to bullish on snow totals just north of the rain/snow line where the highest totals are currently being modeled. That’s something we see quite often. The large scale features argue for the max snow band to be 50 miles or so further north.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 21, 2023 22:05:45 GMT -6
The QPF still is displaced too far to the south relative to the circulation centers on the 00z GFS. But those tracks are further northwest.
A good run the supports the idea of a respectable accumulation.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 21, 2023 22:06:23 GMT -6
I’d be willing to bet the models are being to bullish on snow totals just north of the rain/snow line where the highest totals are currently being modeled. That’s something we see quite often. The large scale features argue for the max snow band to be 50 miles or so further north. 100% agree! |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 21, 2023 22:07:17 GMT -6
I’d be willing to bet the models are being to bullish on snow totals just north of the rain/snow line where the highest totals are currently being modeled. That’s something we see quite often. The large scale features argue for the max snow band to be 50 miles or so further north. 100% agree! And that's not wishcasting by any means. That's the GYB system at work. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 21, 2023 22:09:43 GMT -6
Agree. The QPF may still be misplaced on the modeling. The GYB publications are actually based on probabilistic outcomes so it isn't perfect. Depending on the exact stacking the axis of heavy snow can fall either north or south of bit from the benchmark. But at 84 hours out there's no way to know those kinds of details with confidence. It's the placement of the 500mb vorticity and more so the 850mb low track that matters most at this stage.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2023 22:26:42 GMT -6
The 00z ggem is not great.
Further south/weaker vs. the gfs.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 21, 2023 22:33:23 GMT -6
The 00z ggem is not great. Further south/weaker vs. the gfs. Canadiens, eh? |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 21, 2023 22:33:23 GMT -6
The 0Z GEFS is about a 80-90 km jump north on the 850mb mean track and is pretty close or ever so slightly south of the benchmark.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2023 22:36:33 GMT -6
The 0Z GEFS is about a 80-90 km jump north on the 850mb mean track and is pretty close or ever so slightly south of the benchmark. Snowfall probs look much better this run.
Along/south of 44 has 50% or better of 4" or more
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 21, 2023 22:39:54 GMT -6
Meanwhile... snow is falling at a steady pace in Farmington right now... and it looks like the ground may be getting a little white.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 21, 2023 22:44:35 GMT -6
It looks like the GEFS is aligning the axis of heavy snow only about 40 nm left of the 850mb track. GYB says that is a realistic outcome, but not the highest probability. I believe the highest probability is 90 nm left of the track if I remember correctly.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2023 22:46:43 GMT -6
00z Ukmet is dreadful.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 21, 2023 22:48:46 GMT -6
It looks like the GEFS is aligning the axis of heavy snow only about 40 nm left of the 850mb track. GYB says that is a realistic outcome, but not the highest probability. I believe the highest probability is 90 nm left of the track if I remember correctly. Correct. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2023 22:50:43 GMT -6
Ukie is on something.
To my completely untrained eye, it is shearing this thing out wayyyy too fast as it ejects.
It's also dumping the heaviest snow on top and immediately south of its 850 low track
Very strange
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