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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 16, 2023 7:59:04 GMT -6
this speaks volumes to me. flood outlook issued about a week ago: Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1... ...Near-normal flood chances along the Mississippi River... ...Well below-normal flood chances along the Missouri River... ...Near- to above-normal flood chances along most local tributaries... For minor flooding. Basically like every spring. Chances of anything more substantial is very low |
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Post by ComoEsJn on Feb 16, 2023 8:36:02 GMT -6
window-rattling thunder woke the whole house up around 3:45am (the kind that sounds like a drunken shirtless neighbor is setting off homemade pipe bombs in mole holes)
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 16, 2023 8:43:02 GMT -6
this speaks volumes to me. flood outlook issued about a week ago: Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1... ...Near-normal flood chances along the Mississippi River... ...Well below-normal flood chances along the Missouri River... ...Near- to above-normal flood chances along most local tributaries... For minor flooding. Basically like every spring. Chances of anything more substantial is very low Chances for minor flooding are always higher than other flood cats. Lol |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 16, 2023 9:01:34 GMT -6
Of course they are. But having pretty high chances of minor flooding is nothing new in the spring around here. It's literally every year.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 16, 2023 9:06:20 GMT -6
Woke up to lightning, thunder and pea sized hail in Festus! We had a good storm roll through here about 3:30am Enough lightning and thunder to wake me up |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 16, 2023 9:28:26 GMT -6
Pretty good lightning and rolling thunder up this way last night. First thunder I've heard in some time.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 16, 2023 9:36:38 GMT -6
Of course they are. But having pretty high chances of minor flooding is nothing new in the spring around here. It's literally every year. Actually not referring to that. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 16, 2023 9:37:44 GMT -6
Halfway there
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Post by REB on Feb 16, 2023 9:48:38 GMT -6
.31" at my house
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 16, 2023 9:49:21 GMT -6
Of course we get secondary Development down this way…… When it’s rain
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 16, 2023 9:51:00 GMT -6
We might get lucky and see some snow showers this evening Steep lapse rates and a moist profile from the surface to 850mb. Even some instability present  |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 16, 2023 9:56:53 GMT -6
From web cams it looks like northern Missouri really busted on snow amounts. I couldn’t find more than a dusting anywhere
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 16, 2023 9:57:45 GMT -6
I asked Dr Judah Cohen on Twitter if stl has chances of significant winter weather the rest of the winter or of we're too far south east. He said there's a chance, but entirely possible it's all nw of here.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Feb 16, 2023 10:09:32 GMT -6
Congrats to STL native Liz Leitman who became the first female to issue a severe thunderstorm watch yesterday.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 16, 2023 10:24:01 GMT -6
Congrats to STL native Liz Leitman who became the first female to issue a severe thunderstorm watch yesterday. Yeah, she's a great Twitter follow. Very informative. Love her. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Feb 16, 2023 10:28:06 GMT -6
Made it safely to where I need to be in Chicago.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 16, 2023 10:31:32 GMT -6
That system next week is looking very unwintry around here
The SE ridge looks to flex it’s muscle and keep the cold locked up north of here
A severe threat is on the table depending how it plays out
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 16, 2023 10:53:22 GMT -6
Yeah as pretty much expected, the closer we get to next week, the worse it looks. Ensembles can look fantastic for days and days Over a week out, but this winter reality sets in about 5-7 days out to squash any winter chances. So winter may be over here, or never start, until the mid April snow that lasts 3 hours. And another non existent severe season I'm sure.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 16, 2023 11:02:26 GMT -6
Yes as expected, I think this year is about done . There is nothing remotely close in the next two weeks, then your into March , much lower probabilities of snow falling and actually accumulating. Yes I know it can snow in March but it’s t gets more and more unlikely. Hopefully we can get some above normal temperatures going and really nice weather!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 16, 2023 11:10:52 GMT -6
We officially will hit SSW criteria today. March has higher than average probabilities of being cold and or wintry.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 16, 2023 11:26:01 GMT -6
Yes as expected, I think this year is about done . There is nothing remotely close in the next two weeks, then your into March , much lower probabilities of snow falling and actually accumulating. Yes I know it can snow in March but it’s t gets more and more unlikely. Hopefully we can get some above normal temperatures going and really nice weather! Blasphemy! |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 16, 2023 11:26:45 GMT -6
From web cams it looks like northern Missouri really busted on snow amounts. I couldn’t find more than a dusting anywhere Sheared out mess. Wash. Rinse. Repeat. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 16, 2023 11:30:34 GMT -6
Congrats to STL native Liz Leitman who became the first female to issue a severe thunderstorm watch yesterday. I didn't realize she was from STL. Cool. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Feb 16, 2023 11:37:22 GMT -6
Snowing pretty good here north of Chicago.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 16, 2023 11:37:26 GMT -6
Heres some good news regarding the models prospect for wintry weather. Theres some potential for backside flakes, air snow depicted with a departing low pressure on the cfs around march 16. Lol lol whos going to stay up all night tracking that one?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 16, 2023 11:41:15 GMT -6
Snowing pretty good here north of Chicago. Yep, I’m sitting here on the north side of the city getting screwed over again lol |
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 16, 2023 11:44:39 GMT -6
The total so far at the airport is 5.4". We have a decades long stretch of bad winter after bad winter. Over the last 30 years only 8 have seen average or above average snowfall while 22 were below average. Our 30yr climatological average has dropped from 21.7" from 2001-2010 to 16.8" from 2021-2030. And we're not off to good start this decade either.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 16, 2023 12:37:49 GMT -6
The total so far at the airport is 5.4". We have a decades long stretch of bad winter after bad winter. Over the last 30 years only 8 have seen average or above average snowfall while 22 were below average. Our 30yr climatological average has dropped from 21.7" from 2001-2010 to 16.8" from 2021-2030. And we're not off to good start this decade either. The -AMO needs to hurry up already...  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 16, 2023 12:43:11 GMT -6
COU and MKC reporting -SN last hour but it looks pretty drizzly on radar. We'll be lucky to see a flake around here.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 16, 2023 12:45:54 GMT -6
March is looking more and more like 2012 as we get closer in the long range guidance. Winter is definitely done and dusted. Time to just move on. Summer looks very long and very hot with lots of below normal precip. This is gonna be a sucky year interesting weather-wise (locally). Rest of the planet might be different especially the coastal areas, Canada and into east Asia/Middle-East
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