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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 21, 2023 14:08:39 GMT -6
March “should” see a full scale pattern change. When, who knows. A flip to cold, also who knows. But I do expect noticeable, sustained changes one way or the other. The drivers of our incredibly stable, albeit crappy (IMBY) winter pattern are breaking down as we speak. ENSO, per the last discussion is all but neutral now and we have the SSW that is going to disrupt some things. We will see what the long range discussion is today. They’ve been pretty spot on this year with their predictions. It may be approaching neutral by SST anomaly, especially in the eastern region where warming is apparent. But the atmosphere has not responded yet, with the running SOI still strongly positive. The effects are probably going to hold off until late spring or summer at least. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 21, 2023 15:25:47 GMT -6
A pattern set up that looks more like thunderstorm potential then any snow and cold, but as usual time will tell. Just means it won't be dry and boring, at least for a few more weeks.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 21, 2023 15:54:24 GMT -6
Ya, the ams response may be at least weeks away maybe longer. I certainly dont dispute an impending pattern change.
As the seasons turn, we start to see windy conditions, and cutters bringing us thunderstorms and rain potential in march and sometimes it is warm. Thats different than what weve seen recently. What weve seen is windy conditions and cutters bringing us thunderstorms and rain potential and sometimes its been warm. Im looking forward to this pattern change. 🤣
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 21, 2023 16:02:56 GMT -6
Sometimes I wonder if Beaker is drunk when he posts, or a semi-troll. Or possibly a drunk semi-troll.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 21, 2023 16:22:33 GMT -6
If we can muster up some instability with that shortwave next week, watch out  |
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 21, 2023 16:37:33 GMT -6
Clouding up already!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 21, 2023 17:28:03 GMT -6
If we can muster up some instability with that shortwave next week, watch out Yeah, that's a potent little bowling ball of a trof ejection...tons of jet energy across the US going into next week. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 21, 2023 17:52:03 GMT -6
Hey if we can't get snow. Then severe weather is an equal replacement.
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 21, 2023 21:57:51 GMT -6
I haven’t fact check it- but Glen said Minneapolis has only had 5” of snow so far this year. I’m thinking that’s incorrect
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 21, 2023 22:01:24 GMT -6
I haven’t fact check it- but Glen said Minneapolis has only had 5” of snow so far this year. I’m thinking that’s incorrect Given what my brother has said that sounds questionable to me, too. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 21, 2023 22:02:16 GMT -6
Lol. I think Minneapolis has had over 40 inches so far, and st Louis has had u der 5 since December. The nws had a tweet about it.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 21, 2023 22:18:17 GMT -6
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 21, 2023 22:32:30 GMT -6
my colleagues said the snow was delayed this season but they quickly caught up, and they are happy. This storm will make them ecstatic. Kids are on e-learning both tomorrow and Thursday, but they do expect to have school on Friday. We'll see about that.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 21, 2023 22:40:11 GMT -6
haha...that goofus has DFW metroplex getting a foot of snow in early March. lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 22, 2023 0:21:08 GMT -6
NWS Los Angeles just issued blizzard warnings for the mountains surrounding LA 2-5 feet of snow above 4000 feet with 6-12” down to 2000 feet  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 22, 2023 5:54:13 GMT -6
00z euro has a 978mb low over STL at hour 240 lol.
Seems unlikely
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 22, 2023 7:25:31 GMT -6
I actually wouldn't rule out too much in this pattern. Except snow of course
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 22, 2023 7:38:19 GMT -6
Already have a severe warned cell northwest of the metro this morning... Maybe a busy day?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 22, 2023 7:39:50 GMT -6
SPC has shifted greatest severe probabilities into the metro later this morning into this afternoon. 5% of tornado, 15% damaging wind, and 5% for hail. A general slight risk.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Feb 22, 2023 7:51:41 GMT -6
SPC has shifted greatest severe probabilities into the metro later this morning into this afternoon. 5% of tornado, 15% damaging wind, and 5% for hail. A general slight risk. I don't see any 5% tornado risk in the are as of the 06:46hrs update ?? Tornado is 2% area wide in the slight risk denoted area unless I am missing something. |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Feb 22, 2023 8:34:23 GMT -6
SPC has shifted greatest severe probabilities into the metro later this morning into this afternoon. 5% of tornado, 15% damaging wind, and 5% for hail. A general slight risk. I don't see any 5% tornado risk in the are as of the 06:46hrs update ?? Tornado is 2% area wide in the slight risk denoted area unless I am missing something. That's all I see. NJ had a Tor Warn yesterday in a Marginal. Not a great risk, but not zero either... |
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 22, 2023 9:18:39 GMT -6
00z euro has a 978mb low over STL at hour 240 lol. Seems unlikely I was just getting ready to post that. It is 978 mb over Springfield, MO. That is very unusual. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 22, 2023 10:07:45 GMT -6
SPC has shifted greatest severe probabilities into the metro later this morning into this afternoon. 5% of tornado, 15% damaging wind, and 5% for hail. A general slight risk. I don't see any 5% tornado risk in the are as of the 06:46hrs update ?? Tornado is 2% area wide in the slight risk denoted area unless I am missing something. Legit my bad. It's 2% I didn't have it in tab when I posted and probably mixed the hail map with the tornado map. In the meantime...
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 22, 2023 10:11:54 GMT -6
Meanwhile, in msp, the reported accums are on the lower end of their range, coming in at around 4 inches (prediction was for 4 to 7). From the quick glancery of the nam, it appears they can expect addl accums of 8 to 14 inches through tomorrow. Overall, unless things change they will likely end up on the lower side of their predicted ranges. Our product owner is catching a flight to India tomorrow, and so far, flight is on.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 22, 2023 10:40:20 GMT -6
Canadian has a blizzard here next Friday. Yay
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 22, 2023 10:58:48 GMT -6
It's probably about as realistic as the sub 980mb low in southern MO.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Feb 22, 2023 11:04:04 GMT -6
Just a bit windy...
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Feb 22, 2023 11:22:47 GMT -6
Had the dog outside while sitting on the deck and the wind took my breath away. Even though it is warm it is not comfortable outside.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 22, 2023 12:06:04 GMT -6
Next week has some potential but it's far from textbook for a winter storm around here with the ridge way out in the Pacific. The blocking across NE Canada/Greenland is trying to help us out but I'm not confident it'll deliver when it comes to snow.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 22, 2023 12:14:48 GMT -6
Severe warning for wind here. 60mph.
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