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Post by Jeffmw on Feb 22, 2023 15:49:27 GMT -6
That was a nice preview of Spring today.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 22, 2023 16:20:31 GMT -6
It's interesting that the EC and GEM show significantly different large-scale setups but have essentially the same outcome across our region. The GEM has a strong surface ridge across the N tier which feeds in a lot of cold air while the EC is completely absent with that feature and has a 40mb pressure difference across the Dakotas but still delivers heavy snowfall. I'm sure that'll be gone by tonight or tomorrow's runs, but it's worth noting that there's good agreement for a significant storm towards next weekend.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 22, 2023 16:21:50 GMT -6
Speaking of strong lows, models have been pretty consistent showing a ~980mb low passing to our north early next week.
The gradient winds from that could be quite strong
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 22, 2023 18:47:29 GMT -6
I’d highly recommend going out and looking at the moon, Venus, and Jupiter in the western sky right now
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 22, 2023 18:52:45 GMT -6
The geniuses over at AmericanWx said the February 1960 cyclone went down to 976mb in AR so the Euro is most likely overcooked.
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Feb 22, 2023 19:00:04 GMT -6
I’d highly recommend going out and looking at the moon, Venus, and Jupiter in the western sky right now Thank you!! They are very easy to see. Beautiful! |
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 22, 2023 19:56:03 GMT -6
It's interesting that the EC and GEM show significantly different large-scale setups but have essentially the same outcome across our region. The GEM has a strong surface ridge across the N tier which feeds in a lot of cold air while the EC is completely absent with that feature and has a 40mb pressure difference across the Dakotas but still delivers heavy snowfall. I'm sure that'll be gone by tonight or tomorrow's runs, but it's worth noting that there's good agreement for a significant storm towards next weekend. At this range, all 3 globals have something, even the GFS. The look of the EC and GEM earlier made me think that it would be a cutter, even though it was painting snow in our wheelhouse. It looked like the surface cold was lagging to our west on both. GFS is looking south to me, another good storm for the southern counties, leaving us northerners with cold and flurries. The expected look of the pattern would support something nearby. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 22, 2023 22:15:52 GMT -6
cutter would be my take. Persistence is key. 10 days away - yesterday GFS showed DFW getting over a foot of snow. Today nothing. I bet tomorrow, we'll see the same storm in Kansas to Nebraska and Iowa. These late winter systems may certainly enhance our river flooding potential.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 22, 2023 22:33:17 GMT -6
The 00z gfs gives KC 2-3 feet of snow next week lol.
Massive blizzard across Missouri.
00z ggem also has a massive blizzard for western Missouri.
Something big is brewing.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 22, 2023 22:35:45 GMT -6
GFS and GEM have a storm next Friday, unfortunately both look to be too warm, mostly rain. There’s no good blocking HP involved, they do have real strong 983 Lp going right over us, basically a cold rain while northern Missouri and northern Illinois get hammered. Definitely could change but not the seasonal norm for us to be in a good spot like others have said this looks like the same situation of the last 5-6 storms all cutters with us getting smoked with rain
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 22, 2023 22:35:48 GMT -6
The 00z gfs gives KC 2-3 feet of snow next week lol. Massive blizzard across Missouri. 00z ggem also has a massive blizzard for western Missouri. Something big is brewing. Crazy strong shortwave going negative tilt on that GFS run  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 22, 2023 22:36:51 GMT -6
The timing of the storm aligns very nicely with the timing of the SSW impacts coupling with the troposphere.
I smell correlation, but can’t prove causation.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 22, 2023 22:41:29 GMT -6
Ssdd
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 23, 2023 2:21:09 GMT -6
Lol, the euro has a 958mb low over STL next week.
That is like a low end Category 3 hurricane.
Crazy stuff
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 23, 2023 6:52:32 GMT -6
The Goofoos as someone has brilliantly named had KC getting 2 feet of snow last night and 6 hours later has the storm missing us to the southeast ( probably will happen) …..what has happened to this model? It’s awful
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 23, 2023 7:37:40 GMT -6
The record for St. Louis is 976 mb set on 2/9/1960 so what the Euro is showing is truly unprecedented.
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 23, 2023 7:40:49 GMT -6
When will we know which day next week? So the Rockies won’t tear it apart?
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 23, 2023 7:47:04 GMT -6
Using a blend of the GEFS, GEPS, and EPS I'd say the signal for a weather maker in MO late next week is medium.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 23, 2023 7:50:52 GMT -6
EPS was a cutter through northern Mo mostly rain at that point
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 23, 2023 7:55:03 GMT -6
The Goofoos as someone has brilliantly named had KC getting 2 feet of snow last night and 6 hours later has the storm missing us to the southeast ( probably will happen) …..what has happened to this model? It’s awful All the models have that problem in the 7-10 day range. Too many variables for them to produce a consistent outcome at that range. The best you can do is say the signal is strong for a storm late next week and it could be quite powerful. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 23, 2023 7:59:10 GMT -6
Basically zero chance of any decent snow here . May as well write it off now, so you're not disappointed later. Lol. And by decent snow I mean anything over 2 inches..hell this year, more like 1 inch
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 23, 2023 7:59:51 GMT -6
It's hard to even guess at a track at this point because there isn't a cohesive low on the ensembles yet. That's partly why I think the signal is only medium. There might not even be a storm at all. And you can pretty much bet that if there is it won't be sub 960 or even sub 970 in MO.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 23, 2023 8:12:00 GMT -6
Sub 960mb low or bust
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 23, 2023 8:16:04 GMT -6
It's worth noting that quite a few models show a favorable track of the mid-level low for snow here, but with the cyclone bombing out to our W/SW it floods us with warm air on the front end and even behind it with a strong TROWAL. A weaker storm would have a better chance of tracking flatter vs. cutting and I fully expect models are way too amped currently. With the low latitude of ejection and the building blocking across E Canada, there's a chance it tracks favorably and draws in cold air...but it's a long shot right now.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 23, 2023 8:51:53 GMT -6
The AO forecast looks much better than a few days ago...the strat warming is going to work   |
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Post by amstilost on Feb 23, 2023 9:03:14 GMT -6
The record for St. Louis is 976 mb set on 2/9/1960 so what the Euro is showing is truly unprecedented. I could not find Top 10 low pressure records for STL when I searched yesterday, is there a link you could share, please?  The MN NWS site posted a Top 20+ link for snowfall totals and I was bouncing around trying to gather trends, teleconnections, causation for some time yesterday and then the dog interupted me. There sure is a time spread between #1 and #24. 1886-2023. Records started in MN in 1884. Pretty wild. Nov. 29th 1985, 21.1" was coming out of a low end La Nina and was neutral on this date, -0.3* Also of note, #3 and #4 were 4 consecutive days. Jan 20th- Jan. 23rd, a whopping 37.4" over the 4 day period. This was in 1982. Hmmmmm. This was the transition point from nearly 4 years of basically neutral ONI based values, it was 0.0* in Jan '82, to the eventual Super El Nino during winter of 82-83. I find the 1982 storm(s) interesting just because of STL's bout with winter in 1982. The historical ONI Index goes back to 1950 and can be found Here. Do we, or is there any historical data log of SSW's in the past? |
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 23, 2023 9:31:20 GMT -6
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 23, 2023 9:32:53 GMT -6
The record for St. Louis is 976 mb set on 2/9/1960 so what the Euro is showing is truly unprecedented. I could not find Top 10 low pressure records for STL when I searched yesterday, is there a link you could share, please? The MN NWS site posted a Top 20+ link for snowfall totals and I was bouncing around trying to gather trends, teleconnections, causation for some time yesterday and then the dog interupted me. There sure is a time spread between #1 and #24. 1886-2023. Records started in MN in 1884. Pretty wild. Nov. 29th 1985, 21.1" was coming out of a low end La Nina and was neutral on this date, -0.3* Also of note, #3 and #4 were 4 consecutive days. Jan 20th- Jan. 23rd, a whopping 37.4" over the 4 day period. This was in 1982. Hmmmmm. This was the transition point from nearly 4 years of basically neutral ONI based values, it was 0.0* in Jan '82, to the eventual Super El Nino during winter of 82-83. I find the 1982 storm(s) interesting just because of STL's bout with winter in 1982. The historical ONI Index goes back to 1950 and can be found Here. Do we, or is there any historical data log of SSW's in the past? Here is a list of SSW through 2019: csl.noaa.gov/groups/csl8/sswcompendium/majorevents.htmlKeep in mind that tropospheric coupling is as important as the existence of a SSW. Also, we know splits and displacements behave very differently. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 23, 2023 9:34:09 GMT -6
Just glancing at snowfall reports this morning across Minneapolis, it looks like 10-15” fell across the metro. More south and less north
Still a ton of snow, but a slight underperformance compared to the 18-24” forecast a couple days ago
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 23, 2023 9:36:56 GMT -6
We would have gotten 4 inches of sleet
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