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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 23, 2023 9:39:31 GMT -6
Just glancing at snowfall reports this morning across Minneapolis, it looks like 10-15” fell across the metro. More south and less north Still a ton of snow, but a slight underperformance compared to the 18-24” forecast a couple days ago Child’s play compared to the 24-30 inches we get next week 😂 I do wonder how this winter would be remembered if the Christmas Eve Eve storm or the Memphis Low Rainer would have produced 10 inches of snow. If we got a warning criteria snow next week would this winter move from F to C? |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 23, 2023 9:41:08 GMT -6
I recall the media mentioning a record low in my growing up years. It was a low that moved due north into southeastern mo. I dont recall much about it in terms of winds but i do recall two things: 1) so much rain followed by a dusting of snow, and 2) how disappointed i was with the snow. Its not mentioned in the link of course because technically nobody lives down there.
But i do think the strength is overplayed and it will end up being weaker than currently progged and that gives us a chance. A chance is about it. The ec snowfall map is laughable but plausible. You see the accumulating snow hit the arch effect field, then follow a path that is parallel to 270 then up to iowa.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 23, 2023 9:48:00 GMT -6
Really going out on a limb suggesting the Euro will weaken from breaking the low pressure record by 18mb lol.
I bet those 80mph gusts go away in future runs too.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 23, 2023 9:50:01 GMT -6
Yeah, sometimes i like to go out on a limb and take a wild guess.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 23, 2023 9:53:34 GMT -6
Those 80 mph gusts should go away, unless we end up with a cutter and get severe storms and tornadoes.
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Feb 23, 2023 9:54:21 GMT -6
I would be shocked based on how this winter has behaved, if we got a warning criteria snow next week. Also, if we were to get it, the way this winter has behaved, it would be gone in a day or two.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 23, 2023 10:37:24 GMT -6
GFS is a deep south snow storm this run. The gem has a 982 low over little rock with no cold air and all rain. I pick that as the winner. Lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 23, 2023 10:45:56 GMT -6
That system early next week is still looking like quite the wind machine GFS has the whole area with gust from 50-60+ mph Looks like a forced squall like will move through transferring some of the roaring LLJ winds down to the surface  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 23, 2023 11:07:20 GMT -6
Just glancing at snowfall reports this morning across Minneapolis, it looks like 10-15” fell across the metro. More south and less north Still a ton of snow, but a slight underperformance compared to the 18-24” forecast a couple days ago Not quite "historic" from MN standards... |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 23, 2023 11:39:44 GMT -6
I have my popcorn ready to see if the euro can go sub 950mb over STL this run.
I think we should shoot for a Cat 4 equivalent hurricane if it isn’t going to snow.
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Post by amstilost on Feb 23, 2023 12:35:14 GMT -6
Thanks, it is bookmarked. I wish the STL NWS would add to the Top 10 lists with pressures and other parameters, ie sustained and wind gusts. I am sure most of those would correlate with a lot of the Top 10 data that is already there. |
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Post by amstilost on Feb 23, 2023 12:37:54 GMT -6
I could not find Top 10 low pressure records for STL when I searched yesterday, is there a link you could share, please?  The MN NWS site posted a Top 20+ link for snowfall totals and I was bouncing around trying to gather trends, teleconnections, causation for some time yesterday and then the dog interupted me. There sure is a time spread between #1 and #24. 1886-2023. Records started in MN in 1884. Pretty wild. Nov. 29th 1985, 21.1" was coming out of a low end La Nina and was neutral on this date, -0.3* Also of note, #3 and #4 were 4 consecutive days. Jan 20th- Jan. 23rd, a whopping 37.4" over the 4 day period. This was in 1982. Hmmmmm. This was the transition point from nearly 4 years of basically neutral ONI based values, it was 0.0* in Jan '82, to the eventual Super El Nino during winter of 82-83. I find the 1982 storm(s) interesting just because of STL's bout with winter in 1982. The historical ONI Index goes back to 1950 and can be found Here. Do we, or is there any historical data log of SSW's in the past? Here is a list of SSW through 2019: csl.noaa.gov/groups/csl8/sswcompendium/majorevents.htmlKeep in mind that tropospheric coupling is as important as the existence of a SSW. Also, we know splits and displacements behave very differently. Thanks, that is bookmarked also. I usually read Dr. Cohen's AER page. Fascinating stuff. |
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 23, 2023 12:43:14 GMT -6
One more snow, then it can be spring! The birds are chirping at 5-6a now!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 23, 2023 12:57:58 GMT -6
Rainy deformation late next week on the euro. Lock it in!
I think we have a better chance of that 958mb low verifying than any accumulating snow
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Post by landscaper on Feb 23, 2023 12:59:50 GMT -6
Yep, Euro looks similar to GEM but quicker, lo just south of us but no cold air only rain , probably a very likely scenario similar to the majority of the winter
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 23, 2023 13:21:36 GMT -6
I like the 12z euro. Has a great track and looks loaded by day 10 as well.
Not bad at all at this range.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 23, 2023 13:28:46 GMT -6
Lol. Loaded with rain. Can't wait
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 23, 2023 13:41:11 GMT -6
Lol. Life is peachy.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 23, 2023 14:21:49 GMT -6
Bring on the rain...or whatever. Could be a huge morel season if it keeps this up.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 23, 2023 14:28:14 GMT -6
Drought monitor has a little strip of dry to the north. That's it for all of MO. Stop with the rain already.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Feb 23, 2023 14:34:53 GMT -6
Bring on the rain...or whatever. Could be a huge morel season if it keeps this up. Shhhh..... This is how we get a late freeze. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 23, 2023 15:43:46 GMT -6
Anybody ever read this? Just got it from the library.  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 23, 2023 15:57:39 GMT -6
Anybody ever read this? Just got it from the library. No, but I know how it ends unfortunately |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 23, 2023 16:06:09 GMT -6
DM's Spring outlook is posted.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 23, 2023 16:35:03 GMT -6
Here's my Spring outlook.
It will be very Springy at times. Summery at times. Possibly wintery at times early on.
You're welcome.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 23, 2023 17:14:59 GMT -6
Kindof what he says. Big news is that march is expected to have below average snow.
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 23, 2023 17:29:09 GMT -6
DM's Spring outlook is posted. Probably a typo, but he listed the EPO as one of the heaviest weight teleconnections he uses but also one of the least… |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Feb 23, 2023 18:25:01 GMT -6
At the storm spotter class in Collinsville! Time to get educated again, Kevin Deitsch is leading the presentation.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 23, 2023 19:20:22 GMT -6
Multiple 12z euro ensemble members went sub 950mb (942mb).
That is insane.
100mph winds 😂
I have never seen that modeled before in this region of the country. Fun to look at.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 23, 2023 19:47:42 GMT -6
It also looks like we could have another SSW by March 1st.
Then, there are signs of a third SSW later in March.
The PV is going to be utterly destroyed for March and potentially into April.
The AO is tanking as BRTN posted earlier indicating the SSW from a week ago is coupling with the troposphere.
Things are going to get wild.
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