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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 24, 2023 13:47:29 GMT -6
EPS isn’t bad looking at this range IMO The worst place to be at this range is in the bullseye There’s several members that crush the area  |
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 24, 2023 14:37:19 GMT -6
Yeah, there are few interesting members in there for sure. I see two pressure record members in there as well including a 960mb low right over St. Louis.
It doesn't show a cohesive 850mb low yet, but you can tell it is trying to close one off at hours 150 and 156 pretty close to our benchmark.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 24, 2023 15:04:24 GMT -6
It might just be the NAM NAMing, but it shows a pretty legit severe threat here Sunday night with some low topped supercells  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 24, 2023 15:10:59 GMT -6
It might just be the NAM NAMing, but it shows a pretty legit severe threat here Sunday night with some low topped supercells Yeah.. Im watching Sunday night closely. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 24, 2023 15:38:35 GMT -6
I did notice the NAM was showing around 300-500j/kg SBCAPE early Monday morning. Seems like a better setup for a forced squall line vs. discrete supercells, but I could see some QLCS tornado potential again with that.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 24, 2023 16:10:55 GMT -6
12z GEFS mean staying the course with a sub-1000mb SLP track right through the benchmark next week and a bit colder profile.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 24, 2023 16:19:11 GMT -6
Ensembles sure are starting to look pretty good as we head into March...this screams cold with overrunning potential into the first full week of the month.  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 24, 2023 16:21:06 GMT -6
The 18z gfs is very close to a blizzard for the metro.
It absolutely crushes the Ohio Valley.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 24, 2023 16:42:38 GMT -6
Interesting snippet from !AccuNotWx! who's claiming it's the "earliest spring in 40 years" in parts of the US...they must have forgotten about 2012 and they go on to say that 2017 was significantly warmer in Austin, lol.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 24, 2023 17:01:57 GMT -6
Some incredible blizzards showing up on the 18z gfs ensembles.
Damn.
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331 
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Post by bob on Feb 24, 2023 17:14:41 GMT -6
WC is the storm more for the Ohio valley or to for south for us
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 24, 2023 17:15:39 GMT -6
i have never seen as many model depicted blizzards for here as I have this season. And we have 5 inches to show for it lol.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 24, 2023 17:19:25 GMT -6
WC is the storm more for the Ohio valley or to for south for us On this one particular model run the Ohio Valley is favored, but several ensembles bury Saint Louis. The other models are more suppressed, so no reason to get excited at this time. Just something to watch at this juncture. The top end potential of this setup is incredible though. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 24, 2023 17:25:55 GMT -6
i have never seen as many model depicted blizzards for here as I have this season. And we have 5 inches to show for it lol. I completely agree. If that stupid Christmas Eve Eve blizzard would have materialized we would all be feeling pretty good. This is probably the 3rd non-fantasy range storm modeled with blizzard potential. That seems unusually high. Eventually, one will hit. |
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 24, 2023 18:46:34 GMT -6
i have never seen as many model depicted blizzards for here as I have this season. And we have 5 inches to show for it lol. I find it hard to disagree with this. We used to get excited about the clown maps depicting 20” of snow over a 3 week period. This year it has been a literal modeled blizzard 5 days out that ends up being a half ! BACKSIDE ! cold drizzle. I will say this though, at least when the blizzards fizzle, they fizzle for everyone. We don’t have to watch somewhere 150 miles away get pounded. |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 24, 2023 18:54:48 GMT -6
Unfortunately there’s not a single model showing a blizzard for St. Louis, you have the GFS , somewhat of a very borderline situation all by itself. Every other model is well south of here by “hundreds “ of miles. Yes they could all start to come north, but the GFS could just as easily cave and go south 300 miles in one run and then the whole state is bone dry like the Euro/Gem/Ukmet/Icon all show
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 24, 2023 19:08:11 GMT -6
Unfortunately there’s not a single model showing a blizzard for St. Louis, you have the GFS , somewhat of a very borderline situation all by itself. Every other model is well south of here by “hundreds “ of miles. Yes they could all start to come north, but the GFS could just as easily cave and go south 300 miles in one run and then the whole state is bone dry like the Euro/Gem/Ukmet/Icon all show Right, clearly stated there were multiple ensemble members (not operational runs) showing blizzards which is still unusual at this range. Those ensembles span the Gfs and the Euro. They are in the minority, but still interesting and really the only thing to discuss outside of the SSW. |
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Post by tedrick65 on Feb 24, 2023 20:31:46 GMT -6
I'm on the road next week. Lock in bad weather.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 24, 2023 20:59:49 GMT -6
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Feb 24, 2023 21:14:20 GMT -6
Whatever just fell from the sky and hit the windows sounded icy.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 24, 2023 21:15:46 GMT -6
Rain shower here in Maryland heights
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Feb 24, 2023 21:26:26 GMT -6
I'm on my third margarita watching a Few Good Men, I ain't getting up right now. Lol.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 24, 2023 22:20:26 GMT -6
Sub 980mb low moving through Tennessee on the 00z gfs.
Southeastern Missouri gets hit.
Very close to a blizzard for the metro on that run.
Verbatim, a historic blizzard for Ohio. Extremely impressive dynamics.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 24, 2023 22:25:19 GMT -6
On the flip side, the 00z Icon and ggem are suppressed garbage.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 24, 2023 22:31:58 GMT -6
Yep… definitely a battle going on, the only reason I’m slightly interested is that both the Euro and Gem both had multiple days/runs with a much stronger further north west solution only to crash it south. You could easily see them trend Northwest with time or the GFS trend southeast as well. Who knows when you’re 6-7 days out . Pattern definitely looks better from 3/10 - 3/25 maybe a two week period of colder weather and continued active pattern
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 24, 2023 22:42:19 GMT -6
The signals are starting to stack up for a colder, wintry pattern to develop into March. SOI took a big downturn  And the MJO is forecast to emerge into the favorable quadrant with a strong signal for a cold pattern in the E US  |
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Post by unclesam6 on Feb 24, 2023 22:45:58 GMT -6
The signals are starting to stack up for a colder, wintry pattern to develop into March. SOI took a big downturn And the MJO is forecast to emerge into the favorable quadrant with a strong signal for a cold pattern in the E US huge westerly wind burst driving this MJO cycle that hasn't been see in a while... see ya nina! |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 24, 2023 22:48:32 GMT -6
Yep, definitely signs that the Nina is on it's last leg. I was waiting to see a downturn in the SOI before I got too excited and there it is.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 24, 2023 22:59:53 GMT -6
Some whales among the 00z gfs ensembles…
00z Ukmet sucks though
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 25, 2023 1:45:42 GMT -6
00z EPS looks quite a bit better for late next week  |
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